US climate treaty pledge relies on uncertain Obama actions

JOSH LEDERMAN Associated Press Yahoo News 1 Apr 15;

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States put forth its contribution Tuesday to a global climate treaty, relying entirely on a set of emission cuts ordered by President Barack Obama that may not survive beyond the end of his presidency.

Environmental groups and like-minded governments hailed the U.S. pledge as substantial and ambitious, and Obama's aides waxed hopeful that the U.S. announcement would spur other countries to follow America's lead. Yet with Obama's actions at home facing serious legal challenges and intense political opposition, the Obama administration conceded that many foreign capitals are dubious the U.S. will live up to its commitment.

Todd Stern, the U.S. special envoy for climate change, said the pollution rules Obama is counting on to achieve the U.S. goal are on solid legal ground, pushing back on Republicans who have pledged to repeal them or stop them before they can take effect.

"Undoing the kind of regulations we are putting in place is something that is very hard to do," said Stern. "Countries ask me about the solidity of what we're doing all the time, and that's exactly what I explain."

To fulfill its pledge, the U.S. has until 2025 to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases 26 percent to 28 percent below the levels recorded in 2005. Obama first set that goal late last year as part of a joint climate agreement with China, then codified it Tuesday as the formal U.S. contribution to the climate treaty that nations are seeking to finalize by December, when leaders convene in Paris.

The United States is already part of the way there. Earlier in his presidency Obama set a goal to cut emissions 17 percent by 2020, and the boom in U.S. natural gas production has had the ancillary effect of curbing emissions from dirtier coal-fired power plants.

In its written pledge, known to climate negotiators as an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, the U.S. did not offer an exact formula for how it would achieve the remaining reductions. Yet it pointed to an array of steps Obama has taken or is taking to curb emissions. Obama has ordered higher fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, methane limits for energy production, cuts in federal government emissions and unprecedented pollution rules for new and existing power plants.

Many of those steps have drawn the ire of some Democrats and almost all Republicans — not to mention the energy industry. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has been urging U.S. states not to comply with Obama's power plant rules, and argued that the U.S. could never meet Obama's target even if those rules do survive.

"Considering that two-thirds of the U.S. federal government hasn't even signed off on the Clean Power Plan and 13 states have already pledged to fight it, our international partners should proceed with caution before entering into a binding, unattainable deal," McConnell said.

Although Tuesday marked the informal deadline for nations to relay their commitments to the United Nations, most countries blew through that deadline and will announce their pledges later in the year. So far the U.S., the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Mexico and Russia have put their pledges on the table, with most developing nations and heavy polluters like India and China expected to wait a few more months.

In its message to the U.N., the U.S. argued its pledge was both "ambitious" and "fair" — buzzwords in the long-running dispute about who bears the burden for fighting climate change: Wealthy, industrialized nations like the U.S. or poorer, developing countries like India. The developing countries have argued that since they have historically been responsible for less pollution, they hold less responsibility for taking the tough economic steps needed to curb future emissions.

The U.S. has sought to use its pledge and its diplomatic engagement on climate to ramp up the political pressure on other countries to make ambitious commitments of their own, in hopes of securing the most robust treaty possible.

Yet if McConnell and others succeed in thwarting parts of Obama's climate agenda, it's unclear how the U.S. could meet its goal. White House officials declined to say whether they had a Plan B. And since Obama has relied on executive authority to act on climate, the longevity of Obama's actions are up to the discretion of his successor.

"Foreign capitals remain nervous given the episodic history of U.S. climate engagement," said Paul Bledsoe, a climate adviser in the Clinton White House and a scholar at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He said not all legal experts agree with the Obama administration that a future Republican president would have a hard time reversing Obama's actions.

US pledges emissions cuts of up to 28% ahead of global climate treaty
US confirms greenhouse gas emissions cuts proposals that will be ‘very tough’ to change, boosting prospects for a global climate change agreement at talks in Paris in December
Fiona Harvey and Suzanne Goldenberg The Guardian 31 Mar 15;

The White House pledged to cut carbon pollution by up to 28% on Tuesday, boosting the prospects for an international agreement on climate change at the end of the year.

With the US pledge, the countries accounting for nearly 60% of greenhouse gas emissions from energy have outlined their plans for fighting climate change in the 2020s and beyond, the White House said in a conference call with reporters.

“That’s a big deal,” Brian Deese, the White House climate adviser wrote in a blog post announcing the pledge. “The United States’ target is ambitious and achievable, and we have the tools we need to reach it.”

Deese told the conference call the US expected to achieve emissions cuts of 26% to 28% by 2025 relative to 2005 levels and was on track for an 80% cut in emissions by 2050.

The climate commitments would be “locked in” by the time Barack Obama leaves, and could not easily be reversed by a Republican president or Republicans in Congress, officials told the conference call.

“The undoing of the kind of regulations that we are putting in place is something that is very tough to do,” Todd Stern, the state department climate envoy, said. “The kind of regulation we are putting in place does not get easily undone.”

Some 33 countries have now committed to specific goals for fighting climate change, according to the United Nations agency overseeing the negotiations.

In addition to the US, the European Union, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have outlined their plans to fight climate change after 2020, when the current commitments expire.

Those plans, and those of other countries offered over the next few months, will serve as the building blocks of an international agreement at Paris that is intended to limit warming to 2C, the threshold for dangerous climate change, Stern told the call.

Deese said the Obama Administration was on track to achieve those emissions cuts using existing legal authority, and that the US was on track to achieve emissions cuts of 80% by 2050, based on steps already set in motion by Barack Obama.

“We have the tools we need to meet this goal and take action on climate pollution,” Deese told the call.

However, Republicans in Congress said Obama would be unable to deliver on his commitment to the UN. “The Obama Administration’s pledge to the United Nations today will not see the light of day,” Jim Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who heads the Senate’s environment and public works committee, and denies the existence of man-made climate change.

Most countries missed the Tuesday deadline for submitting climate change plans, agreed at the United Nations negotiations at Lima last December. A number of the biggest carbon polluters, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan , are not expected to announce their commitments until October.

Russia has offered to cut emissions 25% on 1990 levels by 2030.

Campaigners welcomed the US pledge - which had been widely anticipated - but said the Obama Administration needed to move decisively to finalise new rules cutting carbon pollution on power plants to keep up the momentum before Paris.

The power plant rule is the centerpiece of Obama’s climate change plan.

“The United States is signaling that countries should have confidence it can deliver. To maintain that confidence, a strong final rule this summer to cut carbon pollution from new and existing power plants will be critical,” the World Wildlife Fund said in a statement.

Oxfam said the US needed to make deeper emissions cuts to help keep warming below 2C. “While this contribution does move us closer to the 2C pathway, it does not represent the level of ambition needed to avoid catastrophic climate change.”

Among those countries that have come forward, the EU has agreed to cut its emissions by 40% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. China has promised its emissions will peak by 2030 but it has not officially submitted a pledge to the UN.

Mexico, the first developing country to make a climate commitment, said it will cut emissions by at least 22% - and as much as 40% if certain conditions are met. Norway offered a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, from 1990 levels, and said it sought to be carbon neutral by 2050.

For the rest of the world, developed countries are expected to submit plans outlining substantial cuts in greenhouse gases after 2020, while most developing nations are likely to agree only to curb the growth of their emissions compared with “business-as-usual”, rather than make absolute cuts.

But the aggregate level of emissions targets proposed will be bitterly fought over by countries, experts and civil society. Based on the early submissions from the three biggest emitting blocs, global emissions would rise to a level that would see temperatures soar by at least 3.5C, according to some analyses, way beyond the 2C of warming that is widely regarded by scientists as the limit of safety, beyond which the effects of climate change are likely to become catastrophic and irreversible.

Birgit van Munster, of the Homo Sapiens Foundation, which has been analysing the pledges as they have come in, said: “If all humanity follows the example [of the first countries to submit pledges] we will be more than 700% over the likely emissions limit [needed] to limit global warming to less than 2C, and if this trend continues humanity will proceed to go beyond 5C, the end of human life on earth as we know it.”

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics, said: “We can already see that the pledges for 2030 are likely to be significantly lower than a “business-as-usual” emissions pathway, but far in excess of 36bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which the UN Environment Programme concluded last year was the level required for a pathway that offers a 50% to 66% chance of avoiding warming of more than 2C.”

It is unlikely that the pledges made in advance of the Paris talks will be enough to lower global emissions to a level consistent with scientific advice on 2C, as many participants acknowledge. However, many are hoping that Paris will provide a mechanism for the pledges to be upwardly reviewed in future years, according to each country’s ability.

“It is very important that the agreement in Paris includes the creation of a post-2015 process that raises the ambitions of countries’ planned emissions cuts,” Ward said.

Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK, told the Guardian: “Meeting the end of March deadline is an opportunity for major countries to demonstrate both urgency and leadership in the battle against climate change. But thus far we haven’t seen enough of either. Millions of people around the world are waiting for a signal that their political leaders are taking climate change seriously. They [the leaders] are still in time not to let us down.”

Once submitted, the 196 “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”, as the plans are known, will be examined by the UN and other countries to decide whether they are fair and adequate. That process is likely to take until autumn, when the final preparations for the Paris talks will be put in place.

United States sets official strategy for Paris climate talks
Valerie Volcovici PlanetArk 1 Apr 15;

United States sets official strategy for Paris climate talks Photo: Mike Segar/Files
U.S. President Barack Obama (C) speaks during the Climate Summit at United Nations headquarters in New York, in this September 23, 2014, file photo.
Photo: Mike Segar/Files

The Obama administration on Tuesday published plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions up to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, part of a strategy to generate momentum for a global agreement later this year on combating climate change.

The formal submission to the United Nations fleshes out domestic measures to be taken and the White House said the U.S. target "will roughly double the pace of carbon pollution reduction in the United States."

The U.S. plan cited existing measures such as standards for vehicle fuel economy and improved appliance efficiency to help meet the target, and proposed Environmental Protection Agency regulations to cut carbon emissions from power plants and methane emissions from the oil and gas sector.

Many of those policy steps have run into hostility from Republicans who control both houses of Congress and threats of lawsuits from industry groups and some states challenging the administration's legal authority to impose those regulations.

Seeking to take a leadership role ahead of U.N. talks from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 in Paris, U.S. officials highlighted that countries producing 60 percent of global greenhouse gases have now pledged to cut or slow the pace of those emissions. The U.S. plan relies on a host of executive actions to hit the upper end of the target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.

"What is significant about where we are today is ... that the countries that have made commitments span the spectrum of countries, including emerging economies," said Brian Deese, the senior environmental advisor to Obama, a Democrat.

China announced its plan to cap its emissions around 2030 in a joint announcement with the U.S. last November. Mexico on Friday announced a goal to cap its emissions in 2026.

The European Union, Switzerland, Norway and Russia have also submitted plans to slash their greenhouse gas emissions, meeting the U.N.'s informal deadline of March 31.

But major carbon emitters from India to Brazil and Canada to Japan have yet to produce their plans, which may hinder the process of reaching agreement before the Paris talks, according to some environment policy observers.

(Editing by Susan Heavey and Grant McCool)

US makes climate pledge to to UN
Roger Harrabin BBC 31 Mar 15;

The US has pledged to tackle climate change by cutting its carbon emissions 26-28% by 2025.

It made the formal offer to the UN as a step towards a global deal in Paris in December.

The EU has already promised to cut its emissions by a roughly similar proportion.

Tuesday was the deadline for wealthy nations to make their offers – but some, such as Canada, have failed to submit in time.

The announcement was made on Twitter with the words: "America is taking steps to #ActOnClimate, and the world is joining us" - accompanied by a picture of the President in China.

The US announcement said: "The target is fair and ambitious. The United States has already undertaken substantial policy action to reduce its emissions. Additional action to achieve the 2025 target represents a substantial acceleration of the current pace of greenhouse gas emission reductions.

"Achieving the 2025 target will require a further emission reduction of 9-11% beyond our 2020 target compared to the 2005 baseline and a substantial acceleration of the 2005-2020 annual pace of reduction, to 2.3-2.8 percent per year, or an approximate doubling."

Analysts examining the promises made by the first few nations to commit say they are not strong enough to hold global temperature rise to the internationally agreed maximum of 2C.

The early deadline was set for rich nation submissions because the UN is desperate for the Paris meeting to avoid a repeat of the shambolic gathering in Copenhagen in 2009 that failed in its aim of protecting the climate.

Todd Stern, the US chief climate negotiator, previously told BBC News that America’s contribution would be “quite ambitious”.

But he warned that the Paris process would not itself solve the climate problem. That, he argued, would need ongoing effort over decades.

Road ahead

The US has a climate action plan announced in 2013 with new restrictions on power plant emissions and tougher standards on vehicles.

But President Obama's policies are being strongly resisted by Republicans in Congress and the law courts, and other nations have been watching keenly to see if he would formally submit the offer to the UN.

The EU has offered to cut emissions 40% on 1990 levels by 2030 (the US offer is based on a 2005 baseline). Switzerland and Mexico also unveiled pledges.

China is expected to offer to peak emissions by 2030 at the latest, and to produce 20% of its energy from nuclear and renewables by the same date.

Dr Jeremy Woods, who runs the Global Calculator project at Imperial College London said: “The declarations are an important first step. However, since most experts agree that all of the intended pledges will not be enough to limit global warming to 2C, it’s vital that the international community has a clear view well now of the scale of the challenge ahead.

“Over the last decade, the EU’s emissions have shrunk, the US’s have remained more-or-less stable but China’s have risen dramatically from just over 10% of global emissions in 2000 to just under 30% in 2013. The world has been going in the opposite direction to that needed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

"Unless major emitters (governments and businesses alike) can find ways and reasons to dramatically change course we will move into uncharted and dangerous waters very soon.”

Mr Stern said: “You can look at the US, the EU, China - you could say I wish they did a little more than that. It’s not perfect - but then nobody’s is.”