Yuli Tri Suwarni, Jakarta Post 29 Nov 07;
Jakarta's regular floods can be partially blamed on global and regional warming, a scientist has said.
"This will get worse in the years to come. It has been estimated that by 2050, 25 percent of Jakarta will be inundated," said Armi Susandi, a climate change expert at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) on Wednesday.
He added that poor city planning, bad zoning systems and a lack of infrastructure were contributing to the problem.
Armi has studied flooding in Jakarta since 2005. He received his Ph.D on climate change in 2004 from the University of Hamburg, Germany.
He said regional climate change such as has take place in Jakarta has the potential to increase local temperatures, "inviting" more rain.
"The city's severe pollution has created regional warming. This warming has moved the rain from Bogor in the south to Jakarta in the north," he said.
"We have managed to record and identify the pattern of the shifting rain -- how the rain keeps moving to Jakarta. The increase in the city's rainfall rate could reach up to 5 percent per year," he said.
Global warming has also increased the sea level north of Jakarta by 0.57 centimeters per year. The increasing sea level and the lack of a buffer zone due to the decreasing size of the mangrove forest that once covered the area would certainly aggravate the erosion of the beach and floods in the coastal areas of the city, he said.
He added that the fact that the city's land has sunk by 0.85 centimeters per year due to the pressure imposed by concrete buildings and skyscrappers as well as the massive exploitation of underground water springs hasn't helped the city in dealing with the worsening floods.
Armi said that currently 40 percent of the city already lies below sea level.
The government, he said, should construct a buffer zone in the coastal areas to prevent the sea's waves from entering the city. The buffer could be made of mangroves or a six-meter-tall concrete wall.
"When dealing with climate change-related problems, our country has a very low adaptation capacity. In fact, all we have to do is decide whether we will plant mangroves or construct a wall. Otherwise, we need to relocate the residents who live along the coastal areas," he said.
"In January 2008, the floods, I believe, will be worse than the ones we had in 2007 provided that the rainfall rate doesn't change," he said.
