Jeremy Lovell, PlanetArk 23 Jan 08;
LONDON - Security forces round the world will face tough new challenges as climate change unleashes violent storms, raises sea levels and causes floods and famines, a new report said on Thursday.
Up to 200 million people could become environmental refugees by the middle of the century, bringing to one billion the number of people displaced by conflicts, natural disasters and large development projects, the Oxford Research Group report said.
"It is crucial that governments begin to take steps now towards developing effective policy solutions for the police, security services and military to help them adapt to the new and changing demands," said author Chris Abbott.
"However, they must resist the temptation to use force to try and control insecurity and maintain the status quo. In this instance, prevention really is the only cure," he added.
The Oxford Research Group is an independent think-tank that regularly issues reports on global security issues. Abbott's report is titled "An uncertain future -- law enforcement, national security and climate change."
While climate-related events will put new strains on the security services, governments' responses to global warming could give rise to militant environmental groups using terror tactics to make their points, the report said.
"In the US, the FBI ... currently consider 'eco-terrorism' to be one of the most serious domestic terrorism threats," the report said, noting an upsurge in violent rhetoric among a small group of environmental extremists.
It said the melting of ice caused by rising temperatures could raise sea levels by at least one metre this century and that more than 17 million Bangladeshis lived in that danger zone.
Key military bases such as the major US base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could also be swamped by rising sea levels.
The report said food, water and energy -- essential for human survival -- were already in short supply in many parts of the world and shortages would worsen as populations grew and weather patterns changed.
Scientists say global average temperatures will rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius this century as a result of the burning of fossil fuels for transport and power generation.
The developing world insists that the rich developed nations which have caused most of the pollution do most to reduce the harmful emissions.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has on several occasions referred to climate change as an act of aggression by the rich against the poor, the report notes.
But climate change also has the potential to change the world in both geographical and political terms as coastlines retreat, island nations are swamped and national borders are put under pressure, it said.
New disputes may also arise as melting ice opens up viable shipping routes through the Arctic such as the Northwest Passage, where there is already tension between Canada and the United States, the report said.
(Reporting by Jeremy Lovell; editing by Tim Pearce)
New security threats caused by climate change
The Telegraph 23 Jan 08;
Climate change over the coming decades will create new security threats both in Britain and overseas, a report has warned.
As higher temperatures cause sea levels to rise and weather patterns to change, the world faces the prospect of wars over resources like water and food, according to the document.
There will also be pressure from hundreds of millions of "environmental refugees" fleeing their devastated homelands, said the paper from the Oxford Research Group.
And in Britain, police and security services may have to cope with demands for tougher border controls, potentially violent protests against polluting companies and intercommunal tensions.
Resistance to Government measures to mitigate global warming, on top of the additional burden of policing new laws to limit greenhouse gases, is also a possibility.
Author Chris Abbott, a fellow of Bristol University's Centre for Governance and International Affairs, warned that attempts to tackle these new problems using existing strategies are doomed to failure.
He called for leadership from politicians to develop new co-operative approaches which focus on preventing and managing climate change.
"If governments simply respond with traditional attempts to maintain the status quo and control insecurity they will ultimately fail," wrote Mr Abbott.
"In today's globalised world, using military force to secure resources overseas, while attempting to create a fortress state at home, will not work - despite the potential attraction of such policies for governments faced with such an uncertain future.
"The security consequences of climate change will not just manifest themselves 'over there'; there will be domestic security concerns for both developed and developing nations alike.
"Leadership within the police, security services and military will need to use their considerable influence to make this clear to policy-makers and impress upon them the importance of taking steps now to prevent and manage climate change, rather than relying on force to try and control the insecurity later."
It is "almost certain" that, by 2050, droughts, food shortages and flooding will lead to the mass movement of up to 200 million environmental refugees, warned the paper, entitled An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change.
This will inevitably lead to "kneejerk" demands for tighter border controls which are "unlikely to succeed in the long-term".
The rapid rise in immigration will impose additional burdens on police and is likely to lead to changes in rates and types of crimes, due to cultural differences over offences like drink-driving and knife crime, said Mr Abbott.
But he said it was vital to recognise that people driven from their homes by changing weather are refugees with a right to support and protection.
Citing the flawed response to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005, Mr Abbott warned that any failure by the authorities to respond to extreme weather events may lead to the public "losing confidence in the Government's ability to protect them".
Emergency services will face "massive demands" from extreme weather events.
But "Draconian" official measures to protect and provide for populations could lead to resentment, resistance and a breakdown of trust in the police, particularly if they are seen as protecting the interests of the political and financial elites, he said.
And fringe elements of environmental movements may resort to "violence and sabotage", or even terrorist tactics, aimed at governments and corporations regarded as not doing enough to halt climate change.
While it is "unlikely" that wars over resources will be fought in Europe or North America, increasing scarcity could spark inter-communal violence, right-wing protests and racially-motivated attacks on immigrants.
Meanwhile, there will be greater demands on the military to take part in peacekeeping and disaster relief operations, as the very countries most likely to be affected by climate change have weak and fragile states with limited capacity to respond effectively.
Climate change could act as a "threat multiplier" in strategically important areas of the world already plagued by instability, like the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf.
Rising sea levels and melting ice-caps will redraw physical boundaries, potentially forcing the evacuation of island nations like Tuvalu in the South Pacific and causing tensions over new shipping routes through the Arctic, like the North-West Passage.
And the military could face a huge bill relocating strategic defence assets based on coastlines and low-lying islands - like the US airbase on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean - as well as coping with the impact of extreme environmental conditions on equipment and personnel.
The report called for extensive construction of disaster protection measures like flood defences, "massive and sustained" funding for renewable energy and international agreement on the management of environmental refugees.
It also demands consideration of the effects of climate change in foreign aid programmes and more research on the areas of instability most vulnerable to global warming.
And it concluded: "In the long-term, the risks of climate change demand a rethink of current approaches to security and the development of co-operative and sustainable ways of achieving that security, with an emphasis on preventative rather than reactive strategies.
"While this may seem like a huge task, the seriousness of the threat means that it is wholly necessary, and must be started now."
