La Nina impact possible this year
Chadamas Chinmaneevong, Bangkok Post 12 Jan 08;
The weather phenomenon known as La Nina will hurt tourist-related businesses this year, says an environmental and resources expert at Mahidol University. Dr Chirapol Sintunawa said La Nina would cause heavier-than-usual rainfall in the wet season, particularly in flat areas such as Bangkok and the Northeast.
He said the provinces along the west coast would face unusually high tides, as well as strong waves and winds. Importantly, higher sea temperatures could lead to coral reef bleaching and kill coral.
He said Phuket and Samui would face insufficient water during the hot season. "Consequently seaside tourist attractions will be damaged," said Dr Chirapol, who is with the Association for the Development of Environmental Quality.
"It is difficult to solve the problem right now. We can only ease the problems with efficient use of energy."
Other environmental problems, such as those arising from traditional slash-and-burn agriculture, are also challenges in Thailand.
In the North, people usually start forest fires between the first and third months of every year to pave the way for mushrooms and sweet vegetables to grow. Earth star mushrooms retail at 150-300 baht per kg, according to Dr Chirapol.
The thick smoke last year caused northern provinces to lose about three billion baht in revenue. More than 100,000 rai of forests were burned.
The level of dust particles smaller than 10 microns was 128 microgrammes per cubic metre (ug/cu m) in Chiang Mai, 142 in Chiang Rai and 160 in Mae Hong Son. Each exceeded the accepted safety standard of 120 ug/cu m.
Dr Chirapol added that forest fires could cause haze in the northern provinces for a long time and worsen the greenhouse effect.
"If carbon dioxide emissions continue at the same level, climate change will be increasingly worse. Unlike Europeans who are well aware of the global problem, Thai people still take it as a problem far from them and do not bother to help fight global warming. People will face a terrible future if they do not lend a helping hand," said Dr Chirapol.
Rising world temperatures have also stimulated growth in germs. This is due to contaminated water and food, according to Dr Chirapol.
All parties must address the problem, especially tourism firms in direct contact with scenic destinations. Dr Chirapol warned that hoteliers may miss their business targets if pollution escalates.
"I cannot estimate the damage costs because I can't anticipate the level of the damage, but it will happen certainly."
Operators should reduce unneeded costs and develop efficient energy usage, particularly city hotels in Chiang Mai.
Dr Chirapol said hotels should be designed in more energy-efficient ways, including no carpeting and open-air lobbies to reduce air-conditioning.
"Cutting the use of fossil fuels, changing energy-consumption habits and increasing forest areas to absorb carbon dioxide will save us from rising sea levels. This can help the world," he noted.
La Nina means "the little girl" in Spanish, and its climate counterpart El Nino means "the little boy".
During the period of La Nina, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial areas of the Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 0.5 degrees Celsius. By definition, an episode of La Nina lasts at least five months.
La Nina manifests the opposite effects of El Nino. La Nina results in higher rainfall, more high tides and floods in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia.
The last La Nina was a minor one, occurring in 2000-01. Currently there is a moderate La Nina, which began developing in mid-2007. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that the conditions would likely continue into 2008.
According to the NOAA, "Expected La Nina impacts during November to January include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific."
