Rosa Prince, The Telegraph 12 Feb 08;
The UK is to be hit by regular malaria outbreaks, fatal heatwaves and contaminated drinking water within five years because of global warming, the Government has warned the NHS.
Following a major consultation with climate change scientists, the Government is issuing official advice to hospitals, care homes and institutions for dealing with rising temperatures, increased flooding, gales and other major weather events.
It warns that there is a high likelihood of a major heatwave, leading to as many as 10,000 deaths, hitting the UK by 2012.
All institutions have been told they must come up with a comprehensive plan on how to deal with the issues resulting from climate change.
Hospitals are also warned to prepare for outbreaks of malaria and tick-born viruses, as well as increased levels of skin cancer and deaths from asthma and other breathing conditions.
A spokesman for the Health Protection Agency said: "Our work is based on what is likely to happen if we do nothing to prevent it - and it could well be that we see an increase in diseases such as malaria.
"Malaria has been seen in these islands in the past, and it is not impossible that it will return regularly if the UK experiences more tropical temperatures and rain on the scale experienced last summer.
"Our nearest continental neighbour, France, has already experienced a severe heatwave, with thousands of people dying, mostly the old and frail, so it was very clearly seen by scientists as possible here within a short timeframe."
The Daily Telegraph has obtained a draft of the report, "Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK", compiled by Prof Bob Maynard of the Health Protection Agency, which will be officially launched by Dawn Primarolo, the Public Health Minister, on Tuesday.
Based on scientific advice that UK temperatures are expected to rise by up to three per cent by the end of the century, it includes the warning of a "high" risk by 2012 of a severe heatwave leading to 3,000 immediate deaths, followed by a further 6,350 fatalities from conditions such as heart failure and skin cancer.
Hospital admissions due to breathing problems caused by rising pollution are also likely to rise "significantly", by at least 1,500 a year.
While the authors say the UK has proved able to cope with major heatwaves in the past, with no serious increase in fatalities in years with hot summers, such as 1976, temperatures on the scale of those experienced in France in 2003, which resulted in 14,000 premature deaths, would have an impact.
In south-east England, the chance of a severe heatwave on this scale by 2012 is said to be one in 40, and the report says: "In conventional thinking about risks to health, a risk of one in 40 is high."
The NHS has warned that hospitals, nursing homes and other social care institutions need to brace themselves for coping with disasters by planning in advance.
However, fewer old people are expected to die each year from cold, as climate change leads to warmer winters.
The report says outbreaks of malaria in the UK are possible, although likely to remain "rare".
However, across Europe malaria may become common, meaning hospitals should prepare to treat holidaymakers returning from continental weekend breaks, in addition to those who have travelled from more exotic destinations.
Flooding is likely to have an impact on the safety of drinking water, with increased bacteria and algal blooms in reservoirs.
Climate Change May Kill Thousands In UK By 2017
PlanetArk 13 Feb 08;
LONDON - There is a 25 percent chance that a severe heat wave will strike England and kill more than 6,000 people before 2017 if no action is taken to deal with the health effects of climate change, a report said on Tuesday.
The report for Britain's Department of Health estimated more than 3,000 people could die in an intense summer hot spell in southeast England, with just as many more dying from heat-related deaths over the summer.
Until 2012, when London stages the summer Olympic Games, the odds of thousands dying in summer heat each year will be 1 in 40, the report said, and thousands more could die each year as a result of other effects of global warming and air pollution.
"In terms of conventional thinking about risks to health, a risk of 1 in 40 is high," the report said.
Tens of thousands died across Europe in a heat wave during the summer of 2003, including over 14,000 people in France, but so far people living in Britain have coped with rising temperatures.
Although more summer deaths are expected, fewer people will die in Britain as a result of cold winter weather, as the world warms up because of rising carbon emissions from human activity.
The report, an update of a 2002 study, was re-issued on the same day London's mayor said owners of the most polluting cars will have to pay 25 pounds ($48.77) a day to drive them in the city centre in ameasure to cut down on carbon emissions.
(Reporting by Daniel Fineren; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
Global warming 'may save lives'
BBC 12 Feb 08;
The risk of a fatal heatwave in the UK within ten years is high, but overall global warming may mean fewer deaths due to temperature, a report says.
A seriously hot summer between now and 2017 could claim more than 6,000 lives, the Department of Health report warns.
But it also stresses that milder winters mean deaths during this time of year - which far outstrip heat-related mortality - will continue to decline.
The report is to help health services prepare for climate change effects.
A panel of scientific experts commissioned by the Department of Health and Health Protection Agency (HPA) has looked at the way the UK has responded to rising temperatures since the 1970s, and how the risks are likely to change.
While summers in the UK became warmer in the period 1971 - 2003, there was no change in heat-related deaths, but annual cold-related mortality fell by 3% as winters became milder - so overall fewer people died as a result of extreme temperatures.
Rather than physiological changes explaining our ability to adapt to rising temperatures, the report puts this down primarily to lifestyle alterations - our readiness to wear more informal clothes, for instance, and the shift away from manual labour.
Breathing in
Nevertheless, there is at present a 25% chance that by 2017 south-east England will see a severe heatwave which could cause 3,000 immediate deaths and the same number of heat-related deaths throughout the summer.
