Straits Times 10 Mar 08;
Europe faces big migrant flows from neighbours hit by food, water woes
BRUSSELS - EUROPE'S leaders have been warned to prepare for big new flows of migration by 2020 as climate change puts strains on food and water supplies, provokes natural disasters and undermines political stability in poorer neighbouring countries.
A report prepared for the European Union heads of government, who will meet on Thursday in Brussels, said the rest of the world could not insulate itself from the impact of changes that could overwhelm regions that already suffer from poverty and conflict.
So serious are the threats that the multilateral system of global governance could be at risk if the international community failed to address them, the document said.
Because of Europe's proximity to North Africa and the Middle East, both of which are vulnerable to the pressures caused by climate change, 'migratory pressure at the EU's borders and political instability and conflict could increase in the future', the document said.
In North Africa and the sub-Sahara, drought and overfarming could lead to a loss of 75 per cent of arable land.
The Nile Delta could be threatened by both rising sea levels and salinisation of agricultural land.
Between 12 and 15 per cent of arable land could be lost to rising seas in this century, with five million people affected by 2050.
Meanwhile, both the Horn of Africa and southern Africa are vulnerable to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures.
'Migration in this region, but also migration from other regions through northern Africa to reach Europe, is likely to intensify,' the report said.
The document, which will be presented by the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana, listed a series of phenomena that could destabilise poor nations, including rising sea levels, a reduction in arable land, droughts, flooding, water shortages and diminishing food and fish stocks.
Such pressures could also lead to more disputes over territory and water supplies.
The document argued that even if the world managed to reduce carbon emissions to below half of 1990 levels by 2050, a temperature rise of 2 deg C would be difficult to avoid.
'Climate change and its impact on security is already a reality,' said a senior EU official who works on the issue.
'It is best viewed as a stress or threat multiplier which will worsen the existing tensions and threats.'
The document suggested that climate change could trigger migration, including internal population shifts, in countries where health care is poor, unemployment is high and social exclusion is widely prevalent.
'The United Nations predicts that there will be millions of 'environmental' migrants by 2020, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon,' the document noted.
Migration may increase conflicts in 'transit' and destination countries, the report said, adding: 'Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure.'
In the Middle East, water systems are already under huge stress, with significant reductions in crop yields predicted.
Climate change could also have a dramatic impact in South Asia, with serious consequences in Europe because of trading and financial links. Higher sea levels could threaten almost two billion people because four out of 10 people in Asia live within 60km of a coast.
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
