If cars go hybrid, the math holds up
Matthew Phan, Business Times 13 Mar 08;
(SINGAPORE) Converting Singapore's entire car population gradually to hybrid vehicles could cost the nation over $600 million a year, after factoring in both the premium paid for hybrid vehicles as well as the fuel savings, according to a study by Prof S K Chou of the National University of Singapore (NUS).
However, this assumes steady petrol prices at about $1.90 per litre, or 2006 levels.
An annual price increase of 4 per cent a year would make the shift to hybrid cars both 'environmentally and financially beneficial', Prof Chou, who is from NUS's mechanical engineering department, said yesterday at a clean energy roundtable.
Singapore had nearly 800,000 vehicles on the road in 2006, of which some 470,000 are cars or station wagons, according to a statistical report from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) last year.
Prof Chou's study assumed that each car travelled about 21,000 kilometres a year - the average amount measured by the LTA in 2006 - and that to convert a regular car to a hybrid car would cost its owner a $5,000 per year premium.
The present value of the costs over time of converting all cars to hybrid vehicles by 2020 would range from about $600 million to $650 million, depending on the discount rate used, Prof Chou said.
The cost falls if the rate of adoption of hybrid vehicles is slowed.
It also falls into negative territory if increases in petrol prices are assumed, and turns into a financial benefit if petrol prices rise 4 or more per cent a year, Prof Chou explained.
The key question is: what is the financially neutral position, where the fuel cost savings offset the premium paid for a hybrid car?
The study concluded that, assuming petrol price increases of 2 per cent a year, a car owner could afford a premium of up to US$4,810 per year for a hybrid vehicle, and remain indifferent, said Prof Chou.
In 2007, Singapore had over 1,000 green vehicles, including hybrids, vehicles running on biodiesel blends or CNG, and electric cars, according to Ho Cheng Hoon, deputy director of policy at the National Environment Agency, who was also at the roundtable.
'Much of this was in the last two years,' he pointed out.
Through its $20 million Innovation for Environmental Sustainability fund, the government will help fund private sector clean fuel projects, like CNG (compressed natural gas) stations in Mandai and Serangoon, said Mr Ho.
It also wants all taxis and 40 per cent of buses to comply with Euro IV emission regulations by 2014.
Clean Energy Roundtable discusses dilemmas faced by transport sector
Channel NewsAsia 12 Mar 08;
SINGAPORE : The transport sector contributes to 19 percent of CO2 emissions in Singapore.
Car drivers are among the biggest culprits - the energy they consume is 9 times that of a bus passenger and 12 times that of a train passenger.
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said demand for green cars has only taken off in the last two years, helped along by soaring oil prices.
There are currently over 1,000 hybrid vehicles and just under 500 CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) vehicles, and the focus remains on incentives to help people go green.
Experts said legislation could help speed up the process.
Ho Cheng Hoon, Deputy Director of Policy at NEA, speaking at the Clean Energy Roundtable on Wednesday, said: "Legislation may speed up the process but it may not change the behaviour.
"The premise of the green vehicle rebate is to narrow the gap sufficiently for people to consider green vehicles seriously. The Green Vehicle Rebate is not a way for the government to pay people to be green, but just to help people think carefully about how they can be green."
Industry players are looking at workable options. For instance, car manufacturer BMW has presented its 7 Series hydrogen car at the forum. The car's only emission is water, when powered by liquefied hydrogen.
"I think we have to prepare, that we can do this, know what the issues from the technology are and potential of this technology," said Michael Meurer, head of BMW's Clean Energy Programme.
But such green options are far from being an option for the masses yet. BMW reckoned it will be at least a decade before such hydrogen cars can be commercially available. - CNA /ls
