Experts warn on future availability of staple
Today Online 28 Mar 08;
LOS BANOS [Philippines] — It is the staple food of half of humanity but only a handful of countries have large rice surpluses, leaving even some of the biggest producers scrambling to grow enough to feed their own people.
Land endowment determines which countries have enough of the grain, say the world's foremost rice experts.
Rice yields in the Philippines are nearly double those of Thailand, the world's top exporter, yet as in the case of Indonesia, "there is just not enough land", said International Rice Research Institute (Irri) president Robert Zeigler.
The Philippines and Indonesia have a total of nearly 300 million mouths to feed and are among the most vulnerable consumers of the grain as inflation-adjusted rice prices have recently spiked close to historical highs.
The Philippines has imported rice almost every year since 1869, while Java, Indonesia's most populous island, has been an importer since the 16th century, said Irri economist David Dawe.
Just 30 to 35 tonnes — or 7 per cent of the world's annual rice harvest — is traded in the world market, and because the volumes are so thin, they are subject to price shocks.
China is the world's largest producer and consumer and also has the highest yields, but is not a key player in the export market, said Dr Zeigler, adding that China guards its rice reserve levels as a "state secret".
"China, like any government, is extremely concerned that their people have enough to eat," he said.
An unlucky confluence of events has pushed spot prices close to US$1,000 ($1,380) per tonne, levels not seen since the scientific breakthroughs of the "green revolution" in the early 1980s boosted yields and had since then helped keep prices below US$400 a tonne.
Bad weather in Bangladesh, pests and disease in Vietnam, and political problems in Myanmar — until the 1950s the world's top rice exporter — have cut stocks usually available in the international market, Dr Zeigler said.
The biofuels industry could also make maize and soybeans more attractive.
"We have some land in Asia that is being redirected towards biofuel — certainly a lot of interest in converting some good land into oil palm plantations for biodiesel. That's a concern," Dr Zeigler said.
"In general, there's just not much room for areas of growth in the world for rice." — AFP
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