Straits Times 9 May 08;
TOKYO - IN STREWING death and destruction across a rice-rich delta, the weekend cyclone that battered Myanmar has raised a new question for other poor Asian countries already scrambling to find affordable food: Will damage to its current crop force Myanmar to join the clamour for rice imports at a time when prices are at a record high?
So far, rising rice prices on commodity markets suggest the answer is yes. The price of rice has jumped over the last four days, a sign that traders see a further squeeze on a tight global market.
Storm damage to the Irrawaddy delta, Myanmar's low-lying rice bowl, means the country is likely to move from being a modest exporter to a major importer, traders say.
But other experts say they expect the cyclone's impact on the rice market to be minor, adding that Myanmar produced only 1 per cent of the rice traded on global markets in 2007.
And while acknowledging that the cyclone damaged at least part of the current crop and that some supplies were lost, they say the next harvest due later this year may, in fact, benefit from the cyclone's soaking.
'The moisture on the land is a good thing for rice, so their yearly production should go up, not down,' said Thai Rice Exporters Association honorary president Vichai Sriprasert. 'The rice fields are going to get plenty of water now.'
Mr Duncan Macintosh, a spokesman for the Philippine-based International Rice Research Institute, agreed. 'This is a country blessed for growing rice,' he said.
Experts believe Myanmar has a great capability to grow rice with ease, and are convinced that its people will be able to feed themselves again within a few months.
Said Mr Sriprasert: 'The land and the water there is better than in Thailand, the river systems are huge,' he said. 'They'll start to plant soon, and the crop will be good.'
Still, there will be a short-term scramble for food. Officials from the UN World Food Programme working inside Myanmar report that at least one major rice warehouse was destroyed.
They also say that much of the spring rice in the field which had yet to be harvested was showing signs of spoilage.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
