Today 8 May 08;
Rice surged for a fourth day on speculation that Myanmar may be transformed from a exporter to a buyer on the international market after last weekend's cyclone damaged crops and left about 60,000 people dead and missing.
Rice for July delivery rose as much as 2.4 per cent to US$21.60 ($29.50) per 100 pounds (45.4 kg) on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The staple food for half the world has almost doubled over the past year, reaching a record S$25.07 last month after China, Vietnam and India curbed shipments and demand rose.
Soaring prices are stoking social unrest, poverty and hunger.
"The cyclone damage in Myanmar will further tighten Asian rice supplies," said an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co. "This may drive importers to rush for supplies as the cyclone has made the rice exporter rely on food aid".
Before the storm, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation had estimated that Myanmar may have exported 600,000 metric tons of rice this year, with shipments set for Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
That compares with estimated global exports this year of 29.9 million tons, according to FAO.
Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta region, where Cyclone Nargis hit, "is the country's main rice-growing region,'' said a spokesman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "Roughly 24 million people live there".
Myanmar's rice-output estimate may be cut because of the crop damage, according to Ms Concepcion Calpe, a senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organisation. A drop in exports from Myanmar, or increased imports to it, would lead to "further tightening" of the world rice market, she said.
The damage from the cyclone was "huge" and Myanmar may be forced to seek imports of rice, said Mr Chookiat Ophaswongse, the president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
— Bloomberg
