Kicking our oil addiction & using alternative power will spur growth
Zhen Ming, The New Paper 15 Sep 08;
SOMETIME in the not-too-distant future, petrol at the pump could cost Americans a whopping US$40 a gallon (roughly, $15 a litre) - 10 times what it is today.
But that's not my real concern. What's troubling me is the imminent threat of global Armageddon.
You see, the Western Coalition (the US and Europe) are at war. Not with each other, mind you, but with the so-called Red Star Alliance (Russia and China).
Singapore and the rest of the world, meanwhile, can only watch.
This time, though, the two warring sides are not fighting over tiny Georgia - that trans-continental country in the Caucasus.
This time, the stakes are much higher as the two sides square off over the world's last oil reserves - in a country called Turkmenistan, bordered by Afghanistan and Iran, located somewhere in Central Asia.
Amid hunger, water scarcity and power outages in this oil-rich desert country, soldiers from both sides descend upon bombed-out cities and abandoned villages to fight it out.
Thankfully, this 'dystopian' vision, set in the year 2024, is only speculative fiction.
It is presented in Frontlines: Fuel of War - a new video game, released earlier this year, inspired in part by contemporary fears about war over oil.
Before you say 'nah', consider what Mr Luis Cataldi, one of the game's developers, has to say: 'It's a global issue that everyone's very much aware of, but it's also fascinating.'
Fast forward to the year 2050 and what we will have is a more plausible, but truly scary, scenario in which the world will have used up its last drop of oil.
You see, as at the end of last year, the world was still sitting pretty atop a huge mountain of 1.3 trillion barrels of oil in proved reserves.
But the world has also been guzzling this oil at a breakneck speed of about 83.6 million barrels a day, which translates into some 30.5 billion barrels a year.
Assuming the world hasn't found new oil since 2007, and assuming also the world will stick to its current pattern of oil consumption, then what we'll see is a world that will run out of oil on Thursday, 21 July 2050 - less than 42 years away.
It's a doomsday date I don't wish to keep - one that's only as good as whether the world is able to find new oil, and whether it will also cut back. But all these moves will only delay, but not prevent, the inevitable.
And just in case you think I'm being a teeth-gnashing pessimist - that our way of life could disappear 42 years from now - wait till you hear what one Big Oil company itself has to say about this problem.
In a recent advertisement, Chevron made this telling point: 'It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30.'
Thankfully, the world is determined to kick its oil addiction and to go green.
Black gold has been good, but green gold is even better. Here's why.
Every nation that has taken serious steps to adopt 'a greener energy future' has reaped economic growth.
Take Sweden, which announced in 2006 the phase-out of all fossil fuels (and nuclear energy) by 2020. Thousands of entrepreneurs there have rushed to develop new ways of generating energy from wind, the sun and the tides, from wood chips, agricultural waste and garbage.
Rich returns
And guess what? Sweden is now the world's eighth most-affluent nation (on a per capita GDP basis).
The same goes for Iceland. It was once 80 per cent dependent on imported coal and oil in the 1970s and was among the poorest economies in Europe.
Today, Iceland is 100 per cent energy independent, and according to the International Monetary Fund, it is now the world's fourth-richest nation.
And did you know that Brazil's recent move to 'de-carbonise' its transport system has resulted in the most robust economic expansion in its history?
But how about the US - the world's most profligate user of energy?
As I see it, the US could soon lead the way by developing more efficient vehicles and by expanding carbon-free energy sources like wind and solar power.
Asserts Robert F Kennedy Jr, a senior attorney for America's Natural Resources Defense Council:
'The US has far greater domestic energy resources than Iceland or Sweden. We sit atop the second-largest geothermal resources in the world. The American Midwest is the Saudi Arabia of wind.
'Solar installations across just 19 per cent of the most barren desert land in the South-west could supply nearly all of our nation's electricity needs even if every American owned an electric car.'
By kicking its oil addiction, America will again increase its national wealth. Everyone else will then profit from this green gold rush.
Concurs Timothy Lutts, president of Cabot Heritage Corp: 'Today, though it's not widely acknowledged yet, what's being destroyed is our petroleum-based economy. That it's an entrenched part of our global economy is obvious. But it's been entrenched for less than a century - oil replaced coal, remember - and it's time for something better.'
As I see it, expect the providers of this 'something better' - clean green energy - to thrive beyond your wildest dream. Expect also individuals, companies and institutions with stakes in the old petroleum economy to fight back against this inevitable transition.
It is something unfortunate. But it is also something unavoidable.
# Zhen Ming, a Harvard-trained economist based in Singapore, is a freelance contributor.
