Reuters 25 Nov 08;
GENEVA (Reuters) - Gases blamed for global warming reached record levels in the atmosphere last year, the United Nations weather agency said on Tuesday.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) touched new highs after more steady rises in 2007, and methane had its largest annual increase in a decade, the World Meteorological Organization said.
"The major greenhouse gases -- CO2, methane and N2O -- have all reached new highs in 2007. Two of them, CO2 and N20, are increasing steadily and there is no sign of leveling off of those two gases," WMO expert Geir Braathen told a news briefing. He said it was too early to tell if methane would keep rising.
U.N. scientists have warned that high atmospheric levels of radiation-trapping greenhouse gases -- emitted by factories, cars, and in agriculture -- will lead to rising sea levels, big storms, and more heatwaves and droughts.
The current climate pact, the Kyoto Protocol, expires in 2012 and governments are scrambling to agree a new treaty by the end of next year.
Observers hope a new pact will include the United States, which did not ratify the original accord, and will commit developing nations like China and India to emissions targets.
The WMO report found that levels of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons have continued their slow decrease, a result of emission cuts under the 1987 Montreal Protocol which aims to protect the protective layer that blocks harmful solar rays.
"The Montreal Protocol, through the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances, has actually had a positive effect also on climate," Braathen said.
(For the full WMO report see www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/gaw_home_en.html).
(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay, editing by Mark Trevelyan)
FACTBOX: U.N. panel's findings on climate change
Reuters 25 Nov 08;
(Reuters) - Following are findings of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in a 2007 report. The scientific findings are meant as a guide for government delegates who will meet in Poznan, Poland, from December 1-12:
* OBSERVED CHANGES
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level."
* CAUSES OF CHANGE
"Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in ... greenhouse gas concentrations" from human activities.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have risen by 70 percent since 1970. Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, far exceed the natural range over the last 650,000 years.
* PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
Temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cm and 59 cm (7 inches and 23 inches) this century.
Africa, the Arctic, small islands and Asian mega-deltas are likely to be especially affected by climate change. Sea level rise "would continue for centuries" because of the momentum of warming even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized.
"Warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible." About 20-30 percent of species will be at increasing risk of extinction if future temperature rises exceed 1.5 to 2.5 Celsius.
* FIVE REASONS FOR CONCERN
-- Risks to unique and threatened systems, such as polar or high mountain ecosystems, coral reefs and small islands.
-- Risks of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.
-- Distribution of impacts -- the poor and the elderly are likely to be hit hardest. And countries near the equator, most of them poor, generally face greater risks such as of desertification or floods.
-- Overall impacts -- there is evidence since 2001 that any benefits of warming would be at lower temperatures than previously forecast and that damages from larger temperature rises would be bigger.
-- Risks or "large-scale singularities," such as rising sea levels over centuries; contributions to sea level rise from Antarctica and Greenland could be larger than projected.
* SOLUTIONS/COSTS
Governments have a wide range of tools -- higher taxes on emissions, regulations, tradeable permits and research. An effective carbon price could help cuts.
Emissions of greenhouse gases would have to peak by 2015 to limit global temperature rises to 2.0 to 2.4 Celsius over pre-industrial times, the strictest goal assessed.
The costs of fighting warming will range from less than 0.12 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per year for the most stringent scenarios until 2030 to less than 0.06 percent for a less tough goal. In the most costly case, that means a loss of GDP by 2030 of less than 3 percent.
FACTBOX: The world's top 25 greenhouse gas emitters
Reuters 25 Nov 08;
(Reuters) - Following is a table showing the world's top 25 emitters of greenhouse gases. About 190 nations will meet from December 1-12 in Poznan, Poland, to work on a new treaty to combat climate change.
The ranking itself is based on greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, the latest year of comparable data, in millions of metric tons (mT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). China may have overtaken the United States in 2007 as top emitter, analysts say.
Also listed are the emissions in 1990 and 2006 of greenhouse gases by industrialized countries. The U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol requires rich nations to submit such data under obligations to cap greenhouse gases from 2008-12 compared to a 1990 baseline.
1. United States 6,928, 6,135, 7,017
2. EU-27 5,067, 5,573 5,159
3. China 4,938
4. Russia 1,915, 3,326, 2,190
5. India 1,884
6. Japan 1,317 1,272 1,340
7. Germany 1,009 1,228 1,005
8. Brazil 851
9. Canada 680, 592, 721
10. Britain 654, 769, 653
11. Italy 531, 517, 568
12. South Korea 521
13. France 513, 564, 541
14. Mexico 512
15. Indonesia 503
16. Australia 491
17. Ukraine 482, 922, 443
18. Iran 480
19. South Africa 417
20. Spain 381, 288, 433
21. Poland 381, 455, 417
22. Turkey 355
23. Saudi Arabia 341
24. Argentina 289
25. Pakistan 285
SOURCES: * 2000 data -- World Resources Institute, * Other -- industrialized nation submissions to the United Nations.
FACTBOX: Greenhouse gas curbs, from U.S. to China
Reuters 25 Nov 08;
(Reuters) - The following factbox compares international and national goals for fighting climate change ahead of a U.N. meeting in Poznan, Poland from December 1-12.
INTERNATIONAL TARGETS
THE KYOTO PROTOCOL - Binds industrialized nations except the United States to cut emissions on average by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.
GROUP OF EIGHT - Leading industrial nations agreed at a G8 summit in Japan in July to a "vision" of cutting world emissions of greenhouse gases by 50 percent by 2050.
GLOBAL - About 190 nations agreed last year to work out a new treaty by the end of 2009 to succeed Kyoto, comprising deeper emissions cuts by rich nations and action by poor countries to slow their rising emissions.
NATIONAL GOALS
UNITED STATES - President-elect Barack Obama favors cutting U.S. emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80 percent below 1990 by 2050. U.S. emissions were 14 percent above 1990 levels in 2006. Obama says clean energy investments of up to $150 billion over 10 years could create 5 million new jobs.
EUROPEAN UNION - EU leaders agreed in 2007 to cut emissions by 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and by 30 percent if other nations make similar cuts. A December 11-12 EU summit will try to agree details. EU leaders want rich countries to aim to reduce emissions by 60 to 80 percent by 2050 from 1990 levels.
CHINA - A 2006-10 plan aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20 percent, curbing the rise of greenhouse gas emissions. Beijing also plans to quadruple gross domestic product between 2001 and 2020 while only doubling energy use. Beijing said this month it would spend an extra 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) to help boost demand, including investments in green sectors.
INDIA - New Delhi says priority must go to economic growth to end poverty while shifting to clean energies led by solar power. A climate plan in June set no greenhouse caps but said per capita emissions will never exceed those of rich nations.
JAPAN - Tokyo plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60-80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050, implying a cut of about 14 percent by 2020 from 2005. That would put emissions about 4 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.
CANADA - The government's "Turning the Corner" plan seeks to cut emissions by 20 percent below 2006 levels by 2020 and envisages cuts of 60 to 70 percent below 2006 by 2050. Applied to the usual Kyoto 1990 benchmark, a 20 percent cut from 2006 would put emissions 2.7 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.
SOUTH KOREA - The government plans next year to set a 2020 target to curb rising emissions.
AUSTRALIA - The center-left government aims to cut emissions by 60 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. It plans to announce a 2020 target in coming days.
SOUTH AFRICA - The government aims to brake rising emissions and has outlined a scenario with emissions rising until 2020-25, staying flat for up to a decade and then falling. It will set mandatory energy efficiency targets and a shift away from coal.
NORWAY - Aims to cut emissions by 30 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 and to make the nation "carbon neutral," meaning that any emissions in one sector would be offset elsewhere, by 2030.
COSTA RICA - Aims to cut its net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2021, the 200th anniversary of independence.
(Compiled by Alister Doyle in Oslo, editing by Tim Pearce)
