Seventies book predicted our future
CSIRO, ScienceAlert 12 Nov 08
Based on then ground-breaking modelling, the forecasts of global ecological and economic collapse by mid-century contained in the controversial 1972 book; The Limits to Growth, are still ‘on-track’ according to new CSIRO research.
The Limits to Growth modelled scenarios for the future global economy and environment and recommended far reaching changes to the way we live to avoid disaster.
In a paper published in the international journal; Global Environmental Change, CSIRO physicist Dr Graham Turner compares forecasts from the book with global data from the past 30 years.
”The real-world data basically supports The Limits to Growth model,” he says. “It shows that for the first 30 years of the model, the world has been tracking along the unsustainable trajectory of the book’s business-as-usual scenario.”
“The original modelling predicts that if we continue down that track and do not substantially reduce our consumption and increase technological progress, the global economy will collapse by the middle of this century.
"The contemporary issues of peak oil, climate change, and food and water security, resonate strongly with the overshoot and collapse displayed in the business-as-usual scenario of The Limits to Growth.”
This is the first time anyone has comprehensively tested the predictions of the first, and still one of the most comprehensive, global models linking the world economy to the environment.
“We’ve had the rare opportunity to evaluate the output of a global model against observed and independent data,” says Dr Turner.
To date, the recommendations of The Limits to Growth, which included fundamental changes of policy and behaviour for sustainability, have not been implemented.
The Limits to Growth documented the results of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study carried out by Meadows et al, who were commissioned by The Club of Rome to analyse the 'world problematique' using a computer model developed at MIT called World3.
The Limits to Growth became the best selling environmental book in history, selling more than 30 million copies in 30 languages.
“In the years since 1972, The Limits to Growth has provoked much criticism but our research indicates that the main claims against the modelling are false,” Dr Turner says.
CSIRO warns of climate change doomsday
Peter Jean, Herald Sun 12 Nov 08;
THE world may be on track to face economic and ecological collapses by the middle of the century, according to CSIRO research.
The 1972 bestselling scientific report The Limits to Growth warned of possible doomsday scenarios created by unchecked use of resources.
A study by CSIRO physicist Dr Graham Turner found data projections made in The Limits to Growth were correct.
Dr Turner said projections relating to population, food and industrial production, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources between 1970 and 2000 were broadly accurate.
"Unless (The Limits of Growth) is invalidated by other scientific research, the data comparison presented here lends support to the conclusion that the global system is on an unsustainable trajectory," he said.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers commissioned by environment group The Club of Rome used computer modelling to develop The Limits to Growth study.
The report has been criticised by many economists and scientists over the years.
Under a "business as usual" scenario modelled in the report, the world population and the use of industrial resources would continue to grow.
Pollution would increase, harming agricultural production and human life and more energy and resources would be required to access declining levels of non-renewable natural resources.
"Eventually those pollution effects cause a big decline in the population," Dr Turner said.
The Limits of Growth said disaster could be averted through technological advances and a reduction in consumption of material goods.
Dr Turner said there was still time to reduce the potential impacts of the looming environmental and economic problems by controlling pollution levels.
"There is still time to avert things, but we may have to consider some environmental degradation and impacts on the economy might still occur," he said.
The Limits of Growth called for couples not to have more than two children and for the consumption of goods and resources to be cut to around the levels of the 1950s.
