HOW best to slow down explosive growth in global population, expected to tip 12 billion in less than 50 years?
New Paper 7 Dec 08;
HOW best to slow down explosive growth in global population, expected to tip 12 billion in less than 50 years?
This is one major concern facing experts as resources such as food, water and land run short.
A leading expert in human numbers thinks he may have the answer - make sure teenage girls in the developing world complete secondary school.
It is one of the single most important factors that causes them to have fewer babies in later life, said Mr Joel Cohen, professor of populations at the Rockefeller University in New York.
That could cut the expected growth in human population by as much as three billion by 2050, reported the Independent.
'Education promotes a shift from the quantity of children in favour of the quality of children.
'This transition reduces the future number of people using environmental resources and enhances the capacity of individuals and societies to cope with environmental change,' Professor Cohen added, writing in the journal Nature.
Attempts at limiting growth have concentrated on providing birth control to women, but secondary female education is seen as increasingly important.
The United Nations estimates that the current 7 billion population will hit 9 billion by 2050, with most of this increase in developing countries in Africa and Asia.
Fertility rates
But this 'medium' estimate is based on fertility rates declining from today's 2.55 children per woman to slightly over two children per woman by 2050.
If each woman has, on average, half a child more than the UN estimates, then by 2050 the world population could be as high as 11 billion. If each woman has half a child less, it could be as low as 8 billion, Professor Cohen said.
'Thus a difference in fertility of a single child per woman between now and 2050 alters the 2050 estimate by three billion, a difference equal to the entire world population in 1960,' he added.
'Secondary education has the potential to influence that outcome dramatically. Although there are other factors at work, in many developing countries, women who complete secondary school average at least one child fewer per lifetime than women who complete primary school only.'
In Niger and Yemen, for example, women who completed secondary education had on average 4.6 children, a third less than women who completed primary education only.
Professor Cohen said it would pay for the international community to help to fund the education of girls in the developing world.
'Universal, high-quality primary and secondary education is achievable within 25 years. Educating all children well is a worthwhile, affordable and achievable strategy to develop people who can cope with problems foreseen and unforeseen.'
