Krittivas Mukherjee, PlanetArk 19 Mar 09;
NEW DELHI - Asia's biggest carbon emitters face dual challenges this year that risk undermining their fight against climate change -- a global recession that's crippling domestic business and elections in a pivotal year.
For the moment, however, there is little to suggest they've lost their pace in the drive to embrace cleaner energy policies, or a souring of goodwill toward achieving a broader climate pact at the end of the year to replace the Kyoto Protocol.
Even in Australia, where growing political opposition is threatening the world's most sweeping cap-and-trade system, the government has staked its reputation on getting the scheme through parliament in coming months.
Elsewhere in Asia, the drive toward clean energy seems just as strong.
For China, the world's top carbon polluter, going green makes good business sense.
South Korea thinks the same, while Indian political parties are set to roll out climate change manifestos ahead of elections.
Indonesia has backed a U.N. scheme that could curb deforestation in return for billions of dollars in carbon credits, while India and China have snared the highest number of U.N.-backed clean-energy projects that also yield carbon credits.
As green investment grows, along with signs of accelerating climate change, pressure is rising on nations to seal a broader and tougher post-Kyoto framework in December during U.N.-led talks in the Danish capital, Copenhagen.
"There will be a deal because there is a will for a deal this time around," one of India's top climate negotiators told Reuters on condition of anonymity. He is still in the process of drafting New Delhi's stance for a year-end U.N. climate meeting.
The election of U.S. President Barack Obama has also helped keep Asia's green policy plans on track after he pledged to rein in the United States' greenhouse gas pollution, fund green investment and backed carbon cap-and-trade.
Emerging economies in Asia were more likely to use the financial crisis to help them shift into low-carbon development than developed countries, said Kim Carstensen, director of environmental group WWF's Global Climate Initiative.
Asian economies were directing more of their investment cash toward new infrastructure and factories. They also expected at least part of their climate change efforts to be paid for by rich nations.
"If and when that happens, there are few reasons to choose the dirtier alternatives," Carstensen told Reuters from Copenhagen.
STEELING ASIAN RESOLVE
What the United States does between now and then is crucial.
"If the U.S., under Obama's leadership, rigorously pursues a post-Kyoto Protocol that requires the U.S. itself to significantly reduce their own emissions, this is likely to steel the resolve of Asian nations to do likewise," said Australian climate policy and development expert Matthew Clarke.
"A weak U.S. position will undermine any current goodwill that may exist in Asia to act in the interest of the world," added Clarke, of the School of International and Political Studies at Deakin University in Melbourne.
Asia has three of the world's top five greenhouse gas emitters -- China, India and Japan -- plus industrial powers Australia and South Korea as well as Indonesia, where deforestation and forest fires are a major source of planet-warming pollution.
India, Indonesia and Japan all face elections, but analysts say any changes of government will unlikely upset existing climate policies.
In India and Indonesia, for instance, climate change is not yet a major domestic policy issue.
Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso has pledged to release mid-term targets for emissions cuts by June while the opposition Democrats have pledged to ramp up spending on clean energy as a way to boost the economy and wants tough emissions reduction targets for 2020.
"The Democrats have been eager on the issue of fighting climate change, so if they win the election, policies are expected to move forward," said Mikiko Kainuma, chief of the climate policy assessment research section at the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan.
MAJOR CHALLENGES
Imposing tougher emissions curbs on Japanese industry, though, could be a major challenge for whoever holds office after earlier energy efficiency efforts and years of slow growth.
Of Asia's top emitters, Japan was most worried about imposing extra costs on its industries during a recession, said Mark Kenber, policy director of The Climate Group, a British-based NGO that advises governments and businesses on how to pursue a low-carbon future.
Australia also faces risks to its emissions cap-and-trade legislation. The conservative opposition says it should be delayed because of the recession.
The Greens are pulling in the other direction, saying the government's target to cut emissions by 5-15 percent by 2020 is too soft. Changes to the laws are highly likely before parliament finally backs the scheme, set to start mid-2010.
India, the world's fourth largest carbon polluter, goes to the polls starting next month and the ruling Congress party and the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party say they are working on their inaugural climate change manifestos.
This could affect international climate negotiations before December, mainly because India would be too distracted by the weeks-long polls and forming a new government, Carstensen said.
"I don't believe this will be a deal-breaker issue. India is well-prepared to be a very strong player in the second half of 2009, but it certainly does not make things easier," he said.
Indonesia's position on wanting large amounts of aid to protect its forests and clean up its industries was unlikely to change after this month's election, Kenber said.
All the major emitters in Asia understood they needed to act on climate change, he said, but each differed in their approach.
"China certainly gets it. Acting on climate change can be a source of prosperity," Kenber said, pointing to China being a leading solar panel and wind turbine parts maker.
"I think they are seeing opportunities through acting on climate change and becoming a supplier of the parts that make up a low-carbon economy for the rest of the world," he added.
A concern, though, was rich nations meeting their funding obligations for finance, technology transfer and climate change mitigation because of the recession.
Zhang Haibin, a Chinese climate expert, said there could be U.S. opposition to any plan to give China huge funds and clean-energy technology.
"'Here we are in a financial crisis and China is getting richer, so why are we giving them all of this?' -- That will be a very powerful factor," Haibin said.
(Writing by David Fogarty; Additional reporting by Chris Buckley and Emma Graham-Harrison in Beijing; Chisa Fujioka in Tokyo; Ed Davies in Jakarta and David Fogarty in Singapore; Editing by Bill Tarrant)
