Muchena Zigomo, PlanetArk 16 Apr 09;
DURBAN - Cereals production could fall by 50 percent in parts of southern Africa in the long term due to climate change, causing increased hunger and poverty, a researcher told an agriculture conference on Wednesday.
South Africa is the largest carbon emitter on the continent, mainly due to its reliance on coal to produce most of its electricity.
Changes in the region's climate are expected to cause worse flooding in some parts and longer drought in others, reducing crops and raising prices. Other areas may face lower soil fertility, reducing harvests.
"Overall, the effects of climate change in southern Africa are expected to be negative," said Constansia Musvoto, a researcher at South Africa's Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).
"Research that has been done shows that cereal production, for example, could fall by as much as 50 percent by 2080 in some areas and other areas in the region may be completely unsuitable for agriculture by then."
She said parts of South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique -- the region's main cereal growers -- could be affected.
Southern Africa relies heavily on agriculture for food and many of the region's economies are dependent on farming exports for economic growth.
"It (climate change) is very worrying because agriculture is a critical sector for southern Africa economies and any fall in production will obviously have grave consequences," said South African Confederation of Agricultural Unions chief executive Ishmael Sunga.
Falling harvests have increased the number of hungry people.
The UN's World Food Programme said in January it would need to secure food aid for about 6.5 million people in southern Africa by the end of April, the bulk of them in Zimbabwe which is facing a humanitarian crisis and chronic food shortages.
Severe floods in Zambia and Mozambique have also forced governments in those countries to increase grain and cereal imports to feed hungry people in flood-hit areas.
Musvoto said small-scale farmers were the hardest hit.
"Among small-scale farmers the threat of climate change is higher because of widespread poverty," she said. "There is an increased likelihood of crop failures, livestock diseases and therefore livelihood insecurity."
Last year, South Africa's government said climate change could cut the maize crop in the biggest producer of maize on the continent by 20 percent within 15 to 20 years.
The western part of the country is seen becoming much drier while the east is afflicted with increasingly severe storms.
As its western regions dry out, South Africa would have to turn to more drought-resistant strains of maize, or corn, and rely more on the role of genetically modified strains.
(Editing by James Macharia and Peter Blackburn)
