Warren Fernandez, Straits Times 1 Jun 09;
AN INTREPID group of young Singaporeans was racing into the future when I ran into them in Germany recently.
Nanyang Technological University students, they had put together a prototype solar-powered car. They were thrilled that their creation had more energy stored up after a run around the track than before it began.
The team was among nearly 190 from around the world that took part in the 25th Shell Eco-marathon Europe, in Lausitz, Germany. Nearby, rival groups from the National University of Singapore and the Institute of Technical Education were putting the final touches to their own vehicles run on a hydrogen fuel-cell and a conventional petrol engine respectively.
The challenge to these young minds: Devise a vehicle that runs the furthest with the least fuel and CO2 emissions. The record set at the event was equivalent to a staggering 3,771km on one litre of fuel - about enough to get from Singapore to Bangkok, and back.
In their own way, these students are helping to shape the future of transportation. It is no idle pursuit. Countries around the world are grappling with the challenge of how to power the huge number of cars that will soon hit the roads. There will be two billion cars by 2050, double the number today.
Transport accounts for a third of global energy use and a quarter of CO2 emissions. The sustainability of road transport, however, is just one part of the wider energy challenge. This challenge is shaped by three hard truths:
# Surge in energy demand: Growing populations, as well as rising affluence, especially in Asia, will cause energy demand to double by 2050.
# Supply cannot keep up: Supplies of easy to reach conventional oil and gas cannot keep up with the growth in demand. The International Energy Agency says the world will need to find new sources equal to at least six new Saudi Arabias by 2030. So other sources of energy, like 'unconventional' fossil fuels such as oil sands, as well as biofuels, wind and solar will be needed.
# Growing environmental stress: More energy means more carbon emissions. A recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report noted that South-east Asia is likely to suffer more from climate change than the world average. The region is especially vulnerable to sea-level and temperature rises, as well as higher levels of tropical diseases and declining rice yields that might result from global warming.
In the face of these realities, Shell has developed two scenarios for how the energy future might unfold. In the first, dubbed Scramble, governments focus on securing supplies to meet their needs. They put off actions to tackle energy shortages as well as climate change, reacting only when problems become severe. Then their actions are more hurried and extreme.
In the second scenario, Blueprints, the focus is on energy security and environmental sustainability. Governments take early, proactive steps to promote energy efficiency. There is international agreement on a carbon trading system. This drives energy efficiency and the development of new technologies, such as the capture and storage of CO2. A more stable energy system is established.
Both scenarios make clear that carrying on business as usual is simply unsustainable, and a transition to a new energy future is inevitable.
A Blueprints approach is preferable because it would provide a more stable business environment, a faster take-up of new technologies, higher energy efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Recent moves such as United States President Barack Obama raising vehicle fuel-efficiency standards, as well as the inter-ministry report on sustainable development unveiled by the Singapore Government, are characteristic Blueprints behaviour.
The Singapore plan highlights a big push on energy efficiency, and calls for a $20 million trial of electric vehicles. Some significant hurdles, however, must be overcome before large-scale electric mobility becomes a reality.
First, the distance range of batteries needs to go up. Secondly, ways will have to be found to recharge or replace batteries conveniently. But finally, the most serious issue facing electric vehicles, how the electricity is to be produced in the first place.
In Singapore, where nearly 80 per cent of electricity is generated from natural gas - which produces half the CO2 emissions of a typical coal-fired power plant - this might seem less of a concern. In China, which gets 70 per cent to 80 per cent of its energy from coal, electric mobility will not bring as many environmental benefits as people hope.
Clearly, if a Blueprints world is to become a reality, much more work remains to be done, especially as we approach the crucial Copenhagen talks on climate change in December. So far, a global agreement acceptable to all has been difficult to reach.
Perhaps more realistic might be a stepping-stone agreement between smaller groups of key countries to cap emissions from individual high-emitting sectors - such as power generation, which accounts for about 35 per cent of global CO2 emissions. Deforestation, which accounts for 75 per cent of greenhouse gasses in our region, is a key area for Asean to focus on. The energy industry offers much scope for significant efficiency gains and emissions reductions, the ADB report noted.
The matter is urgent. Asia alone will build some 800 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity over the next 10 years, equal to the European Union's total electricity generating capacity today.
Little wonder that climate experts believe that policymakers should give priority to CO2 capture and storage (CCS). According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CCS may contribute up to 55 per cent of the emission reductions that scientists believe are necessary during this century. But companies are reluctant to invest in CCS because it is costly and generates no revenue. Policymakers should promote CCS by putting a price on CO2 emissions and developing cap-and-trade systems.
This raises many difficult questions: Are we ready for a carbon tax, or at least tax on high energy usage, just as we have for water use? Is Asean ready to implement measures to curb deforestation? Is Asia ready for CO2 pricing and trading to help it move from coal to cleaner forms of energy?
Ultimately, there is no quick fix to the energy challenge. We will need to move on many fronts if the double-dilemma of how to deliver 'more energy, less CO2' is to be addressed in the coming years.
The writer is regional director (Asia-Pacific) for communications strategy at Royal Dutch Shell. Shell and the Energy Studies Institute are jointly organising an Energy Roundtable to be held at the National Library tomorrow.
