Desmond Wong, Channel NewsAsia 19 Jun 09;
SINGAPORE: Drier conditions as a result of possible El Nino effects later this year could see the haze returning to Singapore.
The best way for Singapore to mitigate this danger is to work with its partners in Indonesia, said Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim.
He said: "This year, for example, we're a bit worried, because there are indications...you could see El Nino coming back. El Nino conditions are drier than usual, and that is a cause for concern for us because the haze situation could worsen."
Singapore has been working with Indonesia's Jambi province to reduce slash-and-burn activities by farmers there.
The minister also said that the sharing of information and co-operation across governments is critical to avoid disrupting events like the Formula One (F1) race as the dry season heats up.
Dr Yaacob said: "The dry season is starting now - July, August, September. If you look back at 1997 and 2006...September, October...was really the peak. I do not know if that will happen, but if it does, it will affect our (hosting of) F1. So there are many things we should be concerned about and we have informed the Indonesians that they have to do something about it."
The minister was speaking at the opening of the Sea to Space building, home of the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing or CRISP.
The National Environment Agency (NEA) is on its guard against the increase of forest fires in Indonesia, and CRISP will be lending the abilities of its new GeoEye ground station to help NEA monitor hot spots.
- CNA/ir
Back to the hazy days of 2006?
by Lin Yan Qin, Today Online 20 Jun 09;
THE winds have been in Singapore’s favour so far, but that luck may not hold.
With Malaysia already feeling the effects of the haze from forest fires in Indonesia, the likely return of El Nino - which brings dry weather to the region - and a change in wind direction could mean a return for Singaporeans to the hot, haze-filled days of 2006.
And that is especially a cause for concern, with the Formula 1 SingTel Singapore Grand Prix in September - one of the worst months during the 2006 haze - and a H1N1 community outbreak threatening.
Noting that thus far, winds have kept the smoke at bay, the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources warned Singaporeans to nonetheless “prepare for the worst”.
“This year, we are a bit worried because you could see El Nino coming back, and El Nino conditions are dryer than usual,” said Dr Yaacob Ibrahim. “This is a cause of concern for us because that means the haze situation could worsen.” Looking back at 1997 and 2006, he added, “September, October was really the peak” and should the same scenario recur, “it will affect our (hosting of) F1”.
Experts agree the signs are there - the region is now in the “neutral” period that follows last year’s La Nina and usually precedes the El Nino, said Associate Professor Matthias Roth from the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Department of Geography.
And if El Nino brings dry weather here, the lack of rain to wash haze particles away means they will accumulate.
Doctors said they would expect to see an increase in the number of patients seeking treatment for respiratory problems exacerbated by the haze. Could those stricken with H1N1 have their condition worsened? “Certainly they would feel more irritated and cough more, but I don’t think there is a clear link to pace of recovery. The cause of H1N1 is viral and the treatment is targeted as such,” said Dr Chong Yeh Woei, president of the Singapore Medical Association.
Political will vs the weather
On the political front, Singapore will be meeting with its neighbours to discuss the situation. Said Dr Yaacob: “We may need to have a meeting ahead of time to gather the ministers and make this point to our Indonesian colleagues.”
He was speaking at the opening of the Sea-to-Space building at NUS, where the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (Crisp) - which provides images of hotspots in Indonesia to the Government - is located. The number of such forest fire zones has not gone up, and it is important that Singapore had engaged Indonesia early.
The situation in 2006
Today Online 20 Jun 09;
For over two months in 2006, Singaporeans woke up to hazy skies, as forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan made worse by dry weather pushed the haze situation to its worst since 1997.
Pollutant Standards Index levels hit the unhealthy range of 101 and above for three days in October, and those with existing heart or respiratory ailments were advised to reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity. The public was told to reduce vigorous outdoor activity.
The haze had been exacerbated due to a weak El Nino effect that year which prolonged the dry season, causing forest fires to further burn and spread. The monsoon that year was also delayed as a result; hence there was little rainfall to ease the situation until November.
Severe haze likely to hit Singapore
El Nino set to return this year, bringing hotter and drier weather
Amresh Gunasingham, Straits Times 20 Jun 09;
SMOKE haze from Indonesia could make an unwanted comeback this year as an El Nino weather phenomenon develops, bringing hotter and drier weather, Minister for the Environment & Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim said yesterday.
Though slight now, the haze could worsen in the coming months, and peak in September, deep into the dry season.
Yesterday, 32 hot spots were detected in Sumatra, and 50 in Borneo. Meteorologists are watching as an early-stage El Nino develops over the Pacific Ocean.
'It is cause for concern because it means the haze situation could worsen,' said Dr Yaacob. 'We are already seeing some signs of it.'
In fact, all it would take now for haze to blow by is for the wind to change, said experts. It has already blanketed parts of neighbouring Malaysia.
The pollution standards index (PSI) peaked at an unhealthy 136 in areas such as Port Klang, Shah Alam and Cheras last week, as visibility and air quality deteriorated rapidly.
In Singapore the PSI is in the good range for now.
But similar hot and dry weather in 1997 and 2006 fuelled fires in Indonesia, and south-westerly winds sent the smoke onwards.
The haze lasted three months in 1997, with the PSI reaching an all time high of 226 in September. People stayed indoors, health-care costs soared and tourism was disrupted.
According to a World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report published in 1998, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia suffered losses of more than $2.1 billion in the toll to their economies.
A bad haze year would also have a worrying impact on the prize event in the tourism calendar, the F1 Grand Prix race held in September, the minister said yesterday.
'These are things we should be concerned about and we have informed Indonesia that they need to do something about it,' he said.
Singapore will continue to work with Indonesia by providing it with the latest up-to-date information of where hot spots are, so that it can do its part, said Dr Yaacob.
He was speaking to reporters at the launch of a new $9 million satellite ground station, which will assist Indonesia in the haze fight by providing more razor-sharp satellite imaging of hot spot areas.
Indonesia has managed to reduce the number of hot spots but has yet to meet its target of 50 per cent this year, he said.
At a meeting in April for the Asean Ministerial Steering Committee (MSC) on Transboundary Haze Pollution, it assured its neighbours it would step up efforts to meet the target.
Dr Yaacob said officials from the National Environment Agency (NEA) and his ministry are due to travel to Jambi province next week and would impress upon government officials there of 'the need to do more'.
The next ministerial committee meeting, set for October, may also have to be brought forward to before September, he said.
'Let's plan for the worst and hope for the best.'
But Dr Yaacob also paid tribute to a collaboration between Singapore and Jambi province as evidence of progress on Indonesia's part in tackling the problem.
Singapore has committed $1 million to help the provincial government implement various programmes designed to prevent or mitigate the incidence of fires.
Air quality monitoring stations set up in the province now feed information about what is going on there. The hope is for such a network of monitoring stations to be extended throughout Indonesia.
NEA's Meteorological Services Division said a 'marked warming in this part of the Pacific Ocean in recent months points to the early stage of a potential El Nino'. Warming conditions need to be sustained over the coming months for a full-fledged El Nino to develop.
Associate Professor Matthias Roth, from the department of geography at the National University of Singapore (NUS), said the odds for haze in Singapore are high, as the south-west monsoon season, which has just begun and lasts till end-October, would blow any smoke this way.
Early start to El Nino this year
Warmer waters in Pacific herald trouble for region
Michael Wilner, Straits Times 20 Jun 09;
EL NINO is back, and much earlier than expected.
Occurring once every two to seven years, the weather phenomenon almost always begins in September. But experts are saying that unusually high Pacific Ocean surface temperatures this year could mean the risk of it hitting next month has increased substantially.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has calculated the risk at nearly double the average probability - with the likelihood of it forming now put above 50 per cent.
'However, it is still possible, though increasingly less likely, that the recent trends may stall without El Nino thresholds being reached,' it said in a fortnightly update.
US weather forecasters agree that surface temperatures in the ocean are rising, and this might be related to the strong El Nino effect forming for the first time in more than five years.
It has happened unusually quickly, Mr Kelly Redmond of the Western Regional Climate Centre in Reno, Nevada, was quoted as saying.
'It is kind of impressive,' he told the Reno Nevada Gazette. 'It formed quickly. It kind of took me by surprise.'
Mr Redmond also said the fact that it would be an early El Nino could mean that it could be a strong one.
The Pacific Ocean waters began to warm last month, with conditions shifting towards an El Nino this month - a trend projected to continue at least into August, say US weather forecasters.
A strong El Nino event would be cause for concern in this region for several reasons.
The temperature rise would hurt crop production and likely increase the likelihood of a worsening haze situation, particularly for Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Crops will suffer because rainfall will decline during the critical monsoon season, said Mr Drew Lerner, the president of Kansas City-based World Weather Inc. Monsoon rains are pivotal for farm production in India, the world's fifth-biggest grower of soyabeans and third-largest producer of rapeseed.
'Rainfall in India is going to be poor,' Mr Lerner told Bloomberg. 'The oilseeds are all in the reproductive states in September and October, and if they don't have rain in those two months, there could be some problems.'
Australia, which will also suffer from drier weather, is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter.
Furthermore, officials fear the phenomenon is likely to worsen the haze situation in South-east Asia, bearing in mind that during the 1997-98 period, drought caused by El Nino led to major fires in Indonesia.
Forest fires are a regular occurrence during the dry season in areas such as Sumatra and Borneo, but the situation has been aggravated in recent decades as timber and plantation estates, as well as farmers, start fires to clear land.
The fires in turn cause smoke that, because of regional weather patterns, often blows into nearby countries, particularly Singapore and Malaysia.
Some areas in Sumatra and Malaysia have already been affected by haze.
A top official in Sarawak yesterday said the state government would begin cloud seeding operations next week, in view of the long dry spell.
