El Nino a big worry, with declining rainfall causing river and well water to recede
Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja, Straits Times 20 Jul 09;
JAKARTA: The El Nino climate phenomenon could hit Indonesia this year, producing a dry spell that could threaten its rice fields.
The Bengawan Solo River, which meanders through Central Java and East Java, is the main source of irrigation for the island's paddies and is already fast receding, local newspapers have reported. Java's thousands of hectares of paddy fields normally produce 60per cent of the country's total rice output.
Since the beginning of this month, a main dam near the river in Central Java, called Gajah Mungkur, has lost a fifth of its water because of dry weather conditions that may be a sign of El Nino's impending return.
El Nino is a condition caused by temperature fluctuations in the oceans and atmosphere that has been blamed for floods in normally dry areas and droughts in usually wet ones, as well as other disturbances around the world.
Already in Cilacap in Central Java, 36,000 families have been struggling to get clean water from their village wells since early this month, newspapers reported last week. The water level has receded greatly in some wells. In others, water has turned yellow.
The local government is now pledging to bring in tanks of clean water to the troubled villages, as farmers have been asked to switch from planting paddy to other crops that require less water.
The dry weather may continue until the end of the year, forecasters say.
Ms Ati Wasiati Hamid, a director in charge of protecting food crops at the Agriculture Ministry, told the Jakarta Globe that this may push back the rainy season - which normally starts in September - to December.
This means the planting of paddy, which usually starts by early October, may also have to wait.
The declining rainfall and cold morning temperatures in some areas are signs that El Nino is coming, said Mr Winarno Tochir, head of the Indonesian Fishermen and Farmers Association. But clearer signs of its return should be evident by the middle of next month, he said.
Still, not everyone is pessimistic just yet.
Even if El Nino does come, it could be moderate, as it was in 2002 and 2006, rather than severe, as in 1997, said director-general of food crops Sutarto Alimoeso, Ms Ati's boss.
The year 1997 is believed to be the worst El Nino year, with eight months of drought resulting in a huge shortfall in rice output, forcing the country to import more than fivemillion tonnes of rice.
'We still hope it won't happen. But if it happens, we have measures we can take,' Mr Sutarto told The Straits Times. 'We will boost output from the areas where it is possible to maximise production, while areas susceptible to El Nino can switch to other crops like corn.'
The government has set a production target of 63.5million tonnes of rice this year, or about threemillion tonnes more than what the country needs. The country has about 12million ha of paddy fields.
El Nino occurs on average every two to five years, and typically lasts about 12months. It also causes temperatures to rise and, combined with drier conditions, increases the risk of forest fires.
Despite a ban on open burning, some farmers and plantation companies in Sumatra and Kalimantan are still clearing land by cutting down vegetation and burning it.
South-east Asia has been hit by haze almost every year since 1997. That year, fires set to clear land in Indonesia and East Malaysia burnt out of control. Fuelled by El Nino, the resulting smoke covered much of the region in a choking haze affecting Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand.
'The El Nino prediction points out that threats of forest fire will be far greater this year,' said head of advocacy department at Walhi (Friends of the Earth) M. Teguh Surya. 'This calls for an early preparation for prevention by the government. But by the same token, the prediction is also likely to prompt irresponsible parties to go ahead and burn, and blame it on El Nino.'
Wet, wet, wet elsewhere in Asia
Straits Times 20 Jul 09;
CHINA: A weakening tropical storm whirled into southern China yesterday, drenching the region with heavy rains after killing at least five people in the Philippines.
Two Chinese fishermen were missing, state media said. Typhoon Molave weakened as it hit land in Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong, early yesterday.
Molave yesterday moved from Guangdong province to neighbouring Guangxi province. The China Meteorological Administration warned it would bring heavy rains to south-western Yunnan province.
In Hong Kong, the storm forced the cancellation of six flights, diverted four and delayed 14 others, its government said in a statement early yesterday.
# IN NORTH KOREA: Heavy downpours also hit Pyongyang, the North Korean capital and other parts of the country, raising the spectre of a repeat of massive floods two years ago that left hundreds of people dead and devastated farmlands.
The official Korean Central News Agency said up to 287mm of rain fell in Pyongyang and the provinces of South Pyongang and South Hamgyong between Friday and Saturday. But the agency gave no immediate damage report.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency, citing an unnamed intelligence official, said the torrential rain could damage the North's farmland and force the communist regime to call for outside food aid.
# IN PAKISTAN: At least 16 people, including four children, were killed and 27 others hurt after the first rains of the monsoon lashed Pakistan's southern port city of Karachi, officials said yesterday.
The heavy monsoon rain, which started early on Saturday, brought much of the city to a standstill as power and communication systems were badly affected and hundreds of people were forced from their homes.
Metrological officials said more rain was due in the next 24 hours in southern Sindh province, of which Karachi is the capital.
ASSOCIATED PRESS, XINHUA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
