Rich and developing countries agree only to 'substantially reduce' global emissions by 2050
Patrick Wintour and Larry Elliott, guardian.co.uk 9 Jul 09;
World leaders, including the developing nations, yesterday committed themselves only to "substantially reducing global emissions by 2050", but failed to agree a specific target, according to a draft of the communique due to be issued later today.
The draft states: "We recognise the scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed two degrees centigrade."
The draft is due to be issued by the Major Economies Forum under the chairmanship of Barack Obama. The MEF contributes 80% of world emissions.
The lack of a substantive agreement, other than the desire to keep global temperatures down, leaves world leaders facing daunting negotiations to reach agreement at the Copenhagen conference in December, which is due to set the entire climate change framework covering the period from 2012 to 2050.
Developed nations, according to the draft, agree to work in the run-up to the UN Copenhagen conference in December "to identify a global goal for substantially reducing global emissions by 2050". In a weak reference to the need for interim targets for 2020 emission cuts, the draft simply states the global goal will be regularly reviewed.
The statement does not commit either developed or developing nations to the worldwide 50% cuts target by 2050 agreed by the G8 on Wednesday. The language agreed jointly on 2C in today's draft is exactly the same as that deployed by the G8 nations on Wednesday.
The draft statement also states that "the financial resources for mitigation and adaptation will need to be scaled up urgently and substantially and should involve mobilising resources to support developing countries".
But no figure is given for the scale of resources required in the communique. Green and aid groups suggest that as much as $150bn per year in additional funds will be required to help developing countries respond to the effect of climate change. A lot of this money would be privately funded green technology transferred to developing nations, or cash raised from the nascent carbon market.
They also derided today's draft statement, with Tearfund warning: "This rolling dialogue points to the opposite direction to urgency and must not continue. We now have to wait until the UN September meetings when the heads of state will gather once again."
The developing countries are refusing to commit themselves to specific target cuts at this stage partly because they do not know what proportion of the burden of cutting emissions will be taken in the interim.
Developing nations such as Mexico want the rich countries to commit themselves to 40% carbon cuts by 2020, against a baseline of 1990 levels, so that developing countries do not have to take responsibility for the industrialisation of the rich.
G8 makes scant progress to Copenhagen climate pact
Alister Doyle, Reuters 9 Jul 09;
L'AQUILA, Italy (Reuters) - A G8 summit made scant progress toward a new U.N. climate treaty due to be agreed in December with some nations back-pedalling on promises of new action even before the end of a meeting in Italy.
"This hasn't given me a huge rush of adrenalin," said Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate change official, of climate decisions by the G8 summit and a 17-member climate forum of major emitters including China and India.
"Generally this is careful but useful step forward toward Copenhagen...I'm still confident that the deal can be done," he said of the U.N. pact due to be agreed in mid-December.
Among disappointments, the G8 failed to persuade China and India and other developing nations to sign up for a goal of halving world emissions by 2050.
Among progress, rich and poor nations acknowledged that temperature rises should be limited to 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) -- a goal that would force deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions if followed through. And G8 nations set a new goal of cutting their overall emissions by 80 percent by 2050.
"Enough was not achieved...but a new guidance post was inserted," said Jennifer Morgan of the London-based E3G think-tank, referring to the 2 Celsius target.
She said the 2 Celsius goal implied a need for a shift to "action rather than just dithering and avoiding decisions."
But the focus of talks on a new U.N. deal is on 2020 cuts in emissions by developed nations and ways to raise tens of billions of dollars in new funds to help poor nations combat droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels.
De Boer said he understood a refusal by developing nations to sign up for the G8 goal to halve world emissions by 2050.
Asking for action before the rich came up with funding plans and set goals for their own 2020 emissions cuts "was like jumping out of a plane and being assured that you are going to get a parachute on the way down," he said.
And cracks appeared even in the G8 deal to seek cuts of 80 percent by developed nations by 2050.
A Russian official said the 80 percent goal was unachievable for Russia. And Canada's Environment Minister Jim Prentice said the goal was aspirational and fit Canada's target of cutting emissions by 60 to 70 percent below 2006 levels by 2080.
GOOD START
The arrival of President Barack Obama at the White House, promising more action than President George W. Bush, has helped the atmosphere.
"We made a good start, but I am the first one to acknowledge that progress on this issue will not be easy," Obama said, adding that recession was a complicating factor.
"And I think that one of the things we're going to have to do is fight the temptation toward cynicism, to feel that the problem is so immense that somehow we cannot make significant strides," he said.
"This is an important step," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said of the 2 Celsius goal. She added: "We still have a lot to do."
In Washington, Obama's push for quick action by Congress on climate change legislation suffered a setback on Thursday when the U.S. Senate committee leading the drive delayed work on the bill until September.
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Barbara Boxer said, however, that the delay from a previous self-imposed deadline of early August for finishing writing a bill did not mean that legislation would not be possible in 2009.
Environmentalists expressed concern that time was running out for a Copenhagen deal.
"I'm worried that we have negotiations that are very complex -- it will be difficult to reach the final agreement before Copenhagen. But I think we do have time," said Kim Carstensen of WWF International.
The biggest events planned are two summits in September -- one at U.N. headquarters in New York and a G20 summit in Pittsburgh. Obama said that finance ministers would look into climate financing and report back to Pittsburgh.
"Obama's announcement (of a report by finance ministers)....is quite significant," said Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
And apart from summits, there are three rounds of U.N. negotiations among senior officials before Copenhagen -- in Bonn in August, Bangkok in late September and Barcelona in November.
(Editing by Janet McBride)
FACTBOX: G8 summit to set 2 Celsius global warming goal
Reuters 9 Jul 09;
(Reuters) - G8 leaders were due to agree a goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels at a summit in Italy Wednesday.
Here are some facts about the target, previously adopted by European Union nations and due to be widened to the United States, Russia, Japan and Canada.
2 DEGREES DOESN'T SOUND MUCH?
The temperature difference between the last Ice Age and now is only about 5 Celsius. Average world temperatures rose by 0.7 Celsius in the 20th century, according to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
It estimates that temperatures will rise further, by between 1.1 and 6.4 Celsius during the 21st century, depending on policies chosen by governments. It says it is at least 90 percent likely that greenhouse gases from human activities, led by burning of fossil fuels, are to blame for most of the recent warming.
WHAT HAPPENS IF TEMPERATURES RISE BY 2 CELSIUS?
Hundreds of millions of people would be exposed to increased stress on water supplies, according to the IPCC in its last major report in 2007, based on research by 2,500 experts. It says more people would suffer from malnutrition, some infectious diseases and there would be more deaths from heatwaves, floods and droughts. Up to 30 percent of species of animals and plants would be at increasing risk of extinction. Coral reefs would be damaged. Cereals production would decline in tropical areas but, in one benefit, would improve nearer the poles. Coasts would suffer increased damage from floods and storms.
WHY 2 CELSIUS?
The European Union settled upon 2 Celsius in 1996 as a yardstick for measuring success in fighting climate change. It says that anything more would be "dangerous" for life on the planet. Many environmental groups also have the same target. Small island states, which fear being wiped off the map by rising sea levels, say that dangerous impacts will start at a rise of only 1.5 Celsius.
WHAT WOULD IT COST TO LIMIT WARMING TO 2 CELSIUS?
The EU says that meeting the 2 Celsius target could be achieved with world gross domestic product (GDP) losses of at most 2.5 percent by 2050, reducing annual growth by at most 0.05 percent a year.
"When taking into account co-benefits in terms of air pollution reduction, net costs could be significantly lower. The costs of actions to mitigate climate change are small when compared to the relative costs of impacts due to inaction," according to an EU brochure about the goal.
WHAT GREENHOUSE GAS CUTS WOULD BE NEEDED?
"To avoid a warming in excess of 2 Celsius, global greenhouse gas emissions should peak by 2020 at the latest and then be more than halved by 2050 relative to 1990," the EU says, based on IPCC findings.
"In order to have a 50 percent chance of keeping the global mean temperature rise below 2 Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations must stabilize below the equivalent of 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," it says.
"Stabilization below 400 ppm will increase the probability to roughly 66 percent to 90 percent," it says. Greenhouse gas concentrations are now around 380 ppm and rising.
