Melting ice in the Russian Arctic will create a safer, shorter route cut for tankers, but will have even bigger implications for the global energy market
Lesley Riddoch, guardian.co.uk 17 Jul 09;
A new "north-east passage" for shipping around Russia's Arctic coast and across the North Pole will be opened within a decade as global warming causes the ice cap to melt, Norway's foreign minister has predicted.
Jonas Gahr Store, speaking at a recent public lecture in Edinburgh, said the route through previously inaccessible Russian waters, could cut tanker journey times between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama in Japan by 40%, and provide a safer and "pirate-free" route for trans-global shipping.
"The rise in temperatures across the Arctic is twice the world average. Soon there will be no summer ice – that will open up new routes and new strategic issues for the world," he said. The forecast follows previous predictions that the more famous north-west passage will be opened by climate change.
The melting ice also has implications for the global energy market. The Arctic is thought to hold 20% of world resources of fossil fuels – principally sub-sea gas in the massive Shtokman field. The Russian government plans to start extracting gas from the Barents Sea by 2011 with French partners Total and the Norwegian state-owned Statoil.
The Arctic operating environment however is extremely hostile. Some 250 miles offshore, Shtokman cannot be reached by helicopter from continental bases. Explorers would also need to contend with temperatures of -50C (-58F) and ice flows the size of Jamaica.
With 50 Norwegian exploration and supply companies already registered in Murmansk, Mr Gahr Store believes Russia accepts it cannot develop the area alone.
He refutes the idea that a dash for gas and the creation of new Arctic shipping lanes threatens Norway's green credentials.
"A man-made problem needs a man-made solution. The IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] predicts that by 2030/2040 the proportion of energy supplied by fossil fuels will be unchanged at 80% but consumption will have increased. The answer is to produce electricity from fossil fuels without emissions by using carbon capture. Norway is already doing this [in the North Sea] – we store 1m tonnes of CO2 every year. It's monitored and there have been no leaks."
Carbon capture may be acceptable to some environmentalists but co-operation with Russia's nuclear industry is not.
The Norwegian environmental group Bellona has published plans by Russian scientists to use nuclear-powered underwater drill vessels.
Dr Alexander Frolov, deputy head of Russian state weather forecaster Roshydromet, suggests conventional platform-based drilling may be impossible: "As the Arctic climate gets milder, the risk of huge iceberg formation and ice storms in the Barents Sea will grow significantly by 2015. The threat from ice formations of 100km long should not be underestimated."
The Shtokman Development Company plans to address this challenge by using floating removable platforms, which may be nuclear powered and which can be moved around in case of "emergency situations". The eye-watering entry on its website reads: "The forerunning Shtokman concept is a floating, disconnectable spar able to dodge roving icebergs of the 2m-tonne variety."
Mr Frolov has also suggested icebergs could be destroyed with bombs, though admitting that "might raise ecological concerns".
Russian experts now believe the safest way to avoid icebergs is to copy the Norwegians and operate sub-sea, laying pipelines in deep trenches.
The Norwegians have acquired considerable experience from developing their own Ormen Lange gas field, in depths of 3,000 metres which supplies 20% of the UK's needs through the world's longest sub-sea pipeline. Their new Snohvit development in Hammerfest is the world's most northerly liquefied gas production centre – most of Snohvit is also sub-sea.
