Reuters 31 Jul 09;
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's Bureau of Meteorology on Friday predicted that an El Nino weather system in the Pacific Ocean would be established by September-November at the latest.
The bureau said there was now agreement between international weather models that an El Nino, which can bring drought conditions to Australia and weaken Asian monsoons, would be established by the southern hemisphere spring.
"The same six models...predict established El Nino conditions (across a range of climate indices) by the southern spring at the latest," said the bureau in its latest ENSO report.
"Given the high level of persistence (and hence predictability) in ENSO during the second half of the year, the probability of an El Nino event continuing to develop and maturing late in 2009 is high," it said.
El Nino, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, and creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.
For the latest report: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
(Reporting by Michael Perry; Editing by James Thornhill)
Australian weather bureau says El Nino developing
Reuters 5 Aug 09;
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's official weather bureau reported more evidence of a developing El Nino weather pattern, saying its Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days to August 3 was at plus 0.5, down from plus 12 on July 19.
The SOI, an indicator of an El Nino, has been falling rapidly for the past two weeks, the bureau said on Wednesday.
A consistently negative SOI would point to the development of an El Nino, which can bring drought to Australia and weaken Asian monsoons, hurting crop and livestock production.
The SOI measures the pressure difference between the Pacific island of Tahiti and the Australian city of Darwin.
The bureau said that if warm conditions in the Pacific persisted, 2009 was likely to be considered an El Nino year.
For the bureau's report see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
(Reporting by James Thornhill; Editing by Mark Bendeich)
