Jessica Marszalek, The Age 17 Aug 09;
The tourism industry will face a massive cost shock from climate change as coral bleaching increases, species are threatened, national parks are closed, wetlands are lost and insurance bills grow, a tourism conference has been told.
CSIRO principal research scientist Kevin Hennessy used climate change modelling to predict what may be in store by 2020, 2050 and 2070 for some of Australia's top tourism destinations: Kakadu, Cairns, the Blue Mountains and the Victorian Alps.
Climate change is one of the key issues at this week's Tourism Futures conference on the Gold Coast, which is examining the future of one of the country's largest export industries.
Mr Hennessy said all four regions would grow hotter, with more intense rain, but for the most part less rainfall.
Kakadu and Cairns would see more severe cyclones, while there would be an increased fire danger in the Blue Mountains.
And in the Victorian Alps, modelling showed snow cover by 2050 could decrease by up to 80 per cent from current levels.
Less snow also meant less skiing, and reef tourism would be impacted if coral bleaching became an annual event by 2020, as predicted by some, he said.
More broadly, studies suggested the loss of wetlands from rising sea levels, more water-borne illness such as dengue fever, national park closures due to fire risk and reduced grape quality, Mr Hennessy said.
Mr Hennessy said there was also the question of how animals would react to a changing climate.
"There's talk about providing migration corridors - in some cases that's feasible, in other cases it's not," he said.
"There's also relocation, which is a fairly drastic solution.
"And there's some uncertainty about the natural adaptation within a species."
He said in the case of the Great Barrier Reef, it was thought by many that fish could not adapt if coral bleaching became a yearly occurrence.
"So it would actually change the whole ecosystem," he said.
Meanwhile, a strategy to address the potential impact of climate change on the health of the Great Barrier Reef and Australia's $5.1 billion reef tourism industry will be launched at the conference.
It is hoped the joint strategy by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Queensland Tourism Industry Council and Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators will encourage visitors to offset and minimise their environmental footprints.
It will also improve marine tourism staff training and risk management planning.
