Reuters 20 Aug 09;
HANOI, Aug 20 (Reuters) - More than a third of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, where nearly half of the country's rice is grown, will be submerged if sea levels rise by 1 metre (39 inches), an environment ministry scenario predicted.
A sea level increase of that magnitude would also inundate a quarter of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's biggest city and home to more than 6 million people, according to the extreme scenario, outlined in the newspaper Tuoi Tre on Thursday.
Environmental scientists have long listed Vietnam, with its lengthy coastline and vast swathes of low-lying ground, as one of the most vulnerable countries on earth to climate change.
Vietnam is the world's second-biggest rice exporter after Thailand. This year it could ship a record volume of 7 million tonnes. [ID:nSP371656]
The inundation scenario was part of a report based on greenhouse gas and sulphur dioxide emission projections that the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment forwarded this week to a deputy prime minister for approval as the basis for planning to reduce the effects of climate change, another newspaper said.
It laid out three scenarios outlining the possible impact of climate change on Vietnam, and would use the middle scenario as the base line for planning, Thanh Nien Daily said.
According to that scenario, sea levels could rise by 30 cm (12 inches) compared with the 1980-1999 period by the middle of this century and reach 75 cm (30 inches) by 2100, a brief report on the ministry's website said.
A 75 cm rise in sea levels would swamp 20 percent of the Mekong Delta and 10 percent of Ho Chi Minh City, it said.
Temperature increases would also potentially damage agriculture and forestry, in the coffee-growing Central Highlands, for example, the newspaper said, quoting Tran Thuc, director of the ministry's Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment.
Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of robusta beans. (Reporting by John Ruwitch; Editing by Alan Raybould)
Vietnam temperatures, rainfall, seas to rise: study
Thanhniennews.com 20 Aug 09;
More rain will fall and surface air temperatures in Vietnam are predicted to rise by 2.3 degrees Celsius from the average temperature during the 1980-1999 period, according to a government study.
Tran Thuc, director of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment said the study to be officially released today predicted a temperature increase of between 1.6- 2.8 degrees Celsius with the northern region experiencing higher temperatures than the south.
Earlier this week, the Government Office forwarded a document by Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai allowing the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to use the paper as the basis for measures to reduce the impact of climate change.
Concerned agencies and localities will prepare their own plans to cope with climate change and rising sea levels based on the information in the paper, he said.
Thuc said the ministry’s researchers had prepared three scenarios on climate change and rising sea levels based on different projections for greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions, adding that the middle scenario was the one that the government would refer to for planning.
He said the scenario was scheduled to be modified next year and in 2015 following updated information on green house gas emission and other factors affecting climate change.
Picture of the future
According to the scenario, the country’s annual rainfall will rise by the end of the 21st century, especially in rainy seasons. However, rainfall during the dry season will decrease in the south.
The total rainfall will rise by 5 percent over the 1980-1999 period, Thuc cited without mentioning the figure for 1980-1999.
The sea level could rise by 30 centimeters in the mid-21st century and to 75 centimeters by 2100.
Phuc said around 128 square kilometers of land in Ho Chi Minh City would be permanently inundated if the sea level rose by 65 centimeters. Up to 10 percent of the city area, or 204 sq km, would be flooded if the sea level rose 75 centimeters.
No official estimation of flooded areas and socio-economical damages for each region in Vietnam had been made yet, he said
In the Mekong Delta, a 75- centimeter rise would flood 7,580 sq km of land, equal to 20 percent of the Delta’s area.
Recommendations
Thuc said coastal provinces in the central region should avoid constructing houses and other structures near the coastline while road planners should factor in the sea level rise.
The Central Highlands, which could escape consequences from rising sea levels, would have to make plans to cope with higher temperatures.
He said higher temperatures could have harmful impacts on agriculture and forestry because they aid the spread of insects and diseases on plants and animals.
The localities would have to prepare for mass migration from inundated areas to higher lands, he said.
In the Mekong Delta, Thuc advised local authorities to adopt an adaptive plan by focusing on plants that could thrive in flooded areas and salt water.
He also warned of unpredictable weather with typhoons with complicated paths.
Between 1958 and 2007, the average temperature in Vietnam has increased by between 0.5-0.7 degree Celsius while the average rainfall decreased by 2 percent.
The number of cold spells has reduced drastically over the past two decades but they were colder, while typhoons occurred more often in the southern East Sea, he said.
Reported by Quang Duan
