Chris Buckley, Reuters 16 Sep 09;
BEIJING (Reuters) - An international goal to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius appears unreachable even if China embarks on a vast effort to tame its growing greenhouse gas emissions, a Beijing think-tank has said.
The report cast doubt on the prospects for the world to stay within a commonly accepted threshold of dangerous climate change, to avoid worse droughts, floods and rising seas, two months after world leaders including China acknowledged the limit.
China's Energy Research Institute also underlined in its new report concerns among developing countries that a goal to halve global greenhouses gases by 2050, resisted by China and other emerging economies, may cramp their growth.
Even if China embraces rigorous low-carbon policies, the chances were slim that the world could achieve that goal, said the report released in Beijing Wednesday.
"According to our calculations, these goals don't in fact leave enough space for developing countries," Bai Quan, one of the researchers who wrote the report, told a meeting marking its release.
"You can't hang achieving this 2 degrees goal on China," said Dai Yinde, deputy director of the Institute, adding that it was up to the rich nations to lead with big emissions cuts of 90 percent or more by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.
Without these deep cuts, greenhouse gas concentrations are likely to rise this century so the average global temperature rises by around 2.8-3.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, says the study.
China is the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from burning fossil fuels, and with enough money and tough low-carbon policies, those emissions could peak around 2030-35 and then by 2050 fall to the same level as 2005, the report found.
IMMERSED
Governments are immersed in negotiations seeking a new global treaty on fighting climate change by the end of 2009, and China with its bulging greenhouse gas output is a key player.
Chinese President Hu Jintao will present his government's general plans for tackling global warming at a United Nations meeting on climate change next week, the country's senior official on the issue said Tuesday.
Wednesday's new report, "China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050," examines policy options that could help China avoid emissions levels that could tower over those of the United States, long the world's biggest emitter.
The report does not amount to government policy. But coming from a prominent institute that advises officials, it illuminates some of China's key concerns less than three months before the climate pact negotiations culminate in Copenhagen.
"This kind of research confirms the impression that China's position (on climate change) is shifting and there's a very healthy debate," said Jim Watson, an expert on energy policy at the University of Sussex who studies China's emissions.
"That's heartening. But the numbers are still really daunting," Watson said in a telephone interview before its release. "They just show the sheer scale of the challenge."
BIG COSTS AND UNCERTAINTIES
The new report builds on another recent report from the Institute that gave slightly different greenhouse gas growth scenarios.
If China adopts "low-carbon development," emissions from burning fossil fuels could peak at 2.4 billion tons of carbon a year by 2035 and then remain close to that level for at least 15 years. Under current trends they could reach 3.3 billion tons of carbon a year by 2050, compared with global carbon emissions of about 8.5 billion tons now.
Under an "enhanced low carbon scenario" of more stringent steps, China's emissions could peak at 2.2 billion tons around 2035 and fall to 1.4 billion tons in 2050. But achieving major reductions in emissions will carry a big cost, the report said.
A low-carbon growth path would cost about 1.7 trillion yuan ($249 billion) extra a year by 2030 for energy-efficient industry, transport and buildings, and similar levels in 2050, a graph and data in the study indicated.
China's current growth stimulus package amounts to 4 trillion yuan, including bank loans, spent across two years.
Bai, the researcher, said China could follow the low-carbon path described in the report only with intense difficulty, and the enhanced low-carbon path was virtually out of reach.
($1=6.83 yuan)
(Editing by Gerard Wynn)
FACTBOX: China think-tank energy, CO2 scenarios
Reuters 16 Sep 09;
(Reuters) - China's attempt to switch to a "low-carbon" form of economic growth will still see its total energy usage almost double by 2050, according to an major new study from a prominent Beijing energy think-tank.
"China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050," issued by the Energy Research Institute, which is under the National Development and Reform Commission, examines China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions under four different development scenarios.
These scenarios are not forecasts, but models of what alternative policies and steps may be produce in energy-use and emissions.
(1) BASELINE SCENARIO
China proceeds with "business as usual," using the same routes to industrialization made by developed countries.
China will make technological advances to improve energy efficiency, and by 2050 consume about 7.8 billion tonnes of coal equivalent, up from 2.2 billion tonnes in 2005.
(2) ENERGY-SAVING "BUSINESS AS USUAL" SCENARIO
The ordinary model of economic development "undergoes certain changes" but no major technological breakthroughs are made in emission reduction technologies and "saving energy as a way of life" has not become popular. Annual energy consumption will stand at 6.7 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel alone will rise to equal 3.2 billion tonnes a year of carbon in 2035, and 3.3 billion tonnes in 2050, compared to 1.7 billion tonnes in 2007.
(3) LOW-CARBON SCENARIO
China "takes the initiative" to change its model of economic development, "changing the patterns of production and consumption," applying large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and aggressively pushing forward nuclear and renewable energy. Total energy consumption will reach 5.6 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.
Total CO2 emissions from fossil fuel are then likely to reach the equivalent of 2.4 billion tonnes of pure carbon a year in 2035, and about the same in 2050.
(4) ENHANCED LOW-CARBON SCENARIO
China works with developed countries to make major breakthroughs in emission reduction technologies, significantly reducing costs. Total energy consumption will reach 5.0 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2050.
Total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel can then be held to 2.2 billion tonnes of pure carbon a year in 2035, and 1.4 billion tonnes in 2050.
Based on these scenarios, the Energy Research Institute gives the following estimates of energy consumption in the year 2050:
Unit 2008 2050 (2) 2050 (3) 2050 (4) Total energy bln T* 2.9 6.69 5.562 5.022 Per capita energy T* 2.1 4.6 3.81 3.4 Coal bln T 2.72 3.85 2.81 2.01 Petroleum bln T 0.368 1.25 0.77 0.7 Natural Gas bln cu m 77.8 501.3 496.8 477.0 Nuclear GW 9.1 300 350 420 Hydro GW 171.5 400 450 470 Wind GW 8.9 350 380 450 Solar GW >0.1 310 410 460
Notes:
(2) - Energy-saving scenario,
(3) - Low-carbon scenario,
(4) - Enhanced low-carbon scenario
* coal equivalent
Under each scenario, China's rate of economic growth would remain more or less the same, the report said, with per capita GDP projected to reach $22,000 (at year 2000 valuations) by 2050, compared to $1,445 in 2005. The rate of urbanisation will reach 79 percent, up from 43 percent in 2005.
The following table shows some of the 2050 indicators predicted by the report, compared to 2005 in China and the United States.
China 2005 USA 2005 China 2050 (2) China 2050 (3) Per capita GDP $1,445 $39,000 $22,000 $22,000 Steel output (mln T) 500 140 700 600 Car ownership* 24 808 420 388 Per capita energy (T) 1.72 11.3 4.58 3.81 Per capita CO2 emissions (T) 3.88 19.61 8.33 5.98 Notes:
(2) Energy-saving scenario
(3) Low-carbon scenario
* per 1,000 people
(Source: China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050, Energy Research Institute)
(Reporting by David Stanway, Editing by Gerard Wynn)
Chinese government adviser warns that 2C global warming target is unrealistic
China's emissions unlikely to fall low enough because 2C target 'does not provide room for developing countries'
Jonathan Watts, guardian.co.uk 16 Sep 09;
Don't expect China to keep global warming below 2C, a senior government adviser warned in Beijing today at the launch of an influential report on the nation's prospects for low-carbon growth.
Even in a best-case scenario with massive investment in solar energy and carbon capture technology, Dai Yande, deputy chief of the Energy Research Institute, said China's emissions were unlikely to fall low enough to remain below the temperature goal recommended by the G8 and European Union.
His prediction will alarm those governments and scientists who warn that a rise more than 2C risks disastrous consequences in terms of food security, migration, sea-level rises and extreme weather events.
"You should not target China to fulfill the two degree target. That is just a vision. Reality has deviated from that vision," said Dai. "We do not think that target provides room for developing countries." China argues that its priority must be economic growth to relieve poverty among its vast population.
Dai – whose think tank works under the government's powerful National Development and Reform Commission – blamed rich nations for excessive consumption and for failing to reach the targets set at Kyoto.
"Twenty percent of the world's population takes 80% of wealth and emits 70% of greenhouse gases," he said. "I think two
degrees is a vision that is difficult to fulfill because few countries have reached Kyoto protocol targets, except the UK and some others in the EU."
Dai stressed that his comments are not official government policy, but they are consistent with a hardening of positions ahead of the Copenhagen climate change summit in December.
Dai was speaking at the launch of the most influential study ever carried out in China on the possibility of the country moving toward a low carbon path of development.
The detailed study, which was conducted by 10 institutions including universities and the World Wildlife Fund, was built on a preparatory study published last month.
Under its most ambitious scenario, China's overall emissions would peak between 2030 and 2035, assuming generous financial assistance from rich nations, technological transfer, changed consumer habits, enormous investment in renewable energies and large-scale economic restructuring.
Dai said he thought it was unlikely that the two most optimistic scenarios could be achieved because of the huge cost of expanding solar and wind power and capturing carbon. Even under the least ambitious scenario China would have to invest 89.9 trillion yuan by 2050.
Professor He Jiankun, a co-author and the former executive vice president of Tsinghua University, said China faced huge obstacles in moving to a low carbon path because it was still in the midst of development. "There are a huge number of cities to be built. They will consume a large amount of steel and cement. This means that emissions will not be reduced for some time."
He said the report was not national policy, but it was a blue-print for change.
The WWF signed the recommendations and Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate solutions at the China office of WWF, said developing nations were making a "heroic" effort to reduce carbon. He added that governments in richer countries used the excuse of democracy to claim it was "politically impossible" to make bigger cuts.
He said China would suffer more than any other country as a result of climate change, but it was unlikely to shift direction on emissions any time soon.
"China emits most carbon in the world. We don't want this hat, but we may have to wear it for many more years," he said.
The Chinese state council is currently debating a major new plan for renewable energy and there is speculation that it will also announce a carbon intensity target in its economic plan for the first time, but they have yet to show their hand ahead of Copenhagen.
President Hu Jintao is expected to outline some measures at a major United Nations summit on climate change next week.
Until now, Beijing has focused its efforts on technological development. Dai said this was a hope, though it was a wild card.
"Technological innovation is hard to measure," he said. "Nobody could imagine in the 1960s that everyone would have a cellphone and internet access."
