Reuters 18 Sep 09;
(Reuters) - World leaders meet in New York on September 22 to try to revive stalled talks on a new climate treaty that were partly spurred by scientists' bleak findings in 2007 about likely heatwaves, floods, desertification and rising sea levels.
Following are highlights of that report, by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and some more recent findings. IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri says evidence for global warming has strengthened in the past two years.
* OBSERVED CHANGES
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," the IPCC said. Two studies published in the past year found evidence of warming in Antarctica, the only continent previously outside the global trend.
* CAUSES OF CHANGE
The IPCC said it was "very likely" -- a 90 percent probability -- that most of the temperature rise in the past half century was because of human emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly from burning fossil fuels.
* PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
Temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cms and 59 cms (7-23 inches) this century -- by more if a thaw of Antarctica and Greenland accelerates, the IPCC said.
Africa, the Arctic, small islands and Asian mega-deltas are likely to be especially affected by climate change.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said this month that sea levels may rise by 0.5 to 2 meters this century. He said that summer ice on the Arctic Ocean -- which shrank to a record low in 2007 -- could virtually disappear by 2030.
* FIVE REASONS FOR CONCERN - IPCC
-- Risks to unique and threatened systems, such as polar or high mountain ecosystems, coral reefs and small islands.
-- Risks of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.
-- Distribution of impacts -- the poor and the elderly are likely to be hit hardest, and countries near the equator, mostly the poor in Africa and Asia, generally face greater risks such as of desertification or floods.
-- Overall impacts -- there is evidence since 2001 that any benefits of warming would be at lower temperatures than previously forecast and that damages from larger temperature rises would be bigger.
-- Risks of "large-scale singularities," such as rising sea levels over centuries; contributions to sea level rise from Antarctica and Greenland could be larger than projected by ice sheet models.
* SOLUTIONS/COSTS
Governments have a wide range of tools -- higher taxes on emissions, regulations, tradable permits and research. An effective carbon price could help cuts, the IPCC said.
It said emissions of greenhouse gases would have to peak by 2015 to limit global temperature rises to 2.0 to 2.4 Celsius over pre-industrial times, the strictest goal assessed. In July 2009, the Group of Eight and major economies agreed at a summit in Italy to seek to limit warming to 2 Celsius.
The IPCC said costs of fighting warming will range from less than 0.12 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per year for the most stringent scenarios until 2030 to less than 0.06 percent for a less tough goal. In the most costly case, that means a loss of GDP by 2030 of less than 3 percent.
FACTBOX: Climate talks on the road to U.N. deal in Copenhagen
Reuters 18 Sep 09;
(Reuters) - Following is a list of major meetings in the run-up to a climate talks in Copenhagen in December meant to agree a new pact to fight global warming.
Copenhagen will cap two years of negotiations launched in Bali, Indonesia, in December 2007 on a pact to succeed the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol:
NEW YORK - September 22 - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon holds one-day summit on climate change for world leaders at U.N. headquarters. U.S. President Barack Obama and China's President Hu Jintao to be among speakers.
PITTSBURGH, United States - September 24-25 - Leaders of the Group of 20 meet; among issues is to decide ways to finance the fight against climate change.
BANGKOK - September 28-October 9 - Officials from up to 190 countries meet for the fourth session this year of formal negotiations on the Copenhagen deal.
BARCELONA, Spain - November 2-6 - Officials from up to 190 nations hold the fifth and final round of climate talks in 2009 before Copenhagen.
COPENHAGEN - December 7-18 - U.N. talks among 190 nations meant to agree a deal to combat climate change. Environment Ministers are due to attend the final three days, from December 16.
FACTBOX: Climate change costs, offers to pay
Reuters 18 Sep 09;
(Reuters) - Global climate talks are deadlocked on how to share the financial costs of fighting climate change, as world leaders meet at a U.N. summit in New York on September 22.
G20 leaders also meet in Pittsburgh on September 24-25, partly to discuss climate financing.
Agreement on climate funds and who will pay is an important ingredient to get a global deal to fight climate change, as intended in Copenhagen in December.
Climate costs are calculated as the money needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and also prepare for more droughts and floods -- called "mitigation" and "adaptation" respectively.
The World Bank's World Development Report published on September 15 said: "The estimated $75 billion that could be needed annually for adaptation in developing countries dwarfs the less than $1 billion a year now available."
Europe will call next week on rich nations to find up to 7 billion euros ($10.3 billion) annually for the developing world from 2010-2012.
Estimates follow of climate funds needed, proposals on how to raise these, and offers so far.
HOW MUCH MONEY NEEDED
1. Mitigation
* $1.1 trillion per year extra, clean energy investment 2010-2050 for tough carbon cuts -- International Energy Agency
* that total would be reduced to $53 billion per year, after fuel, efficiency savings -- IEA
* 530-810 billion euros ($778-1,189 billion) per year extra investment 2020-2030 -- McKinsey
2. Adaptation
* $100-150 billion per year by 2030 globally for early weather warnings, flood prevention, irrigation -- International Institute for Environment and Development
* $75 billion per year by 2030 needed by developing countries alone -- World Development Report, World Bank
3. Climate funds rich should pay developing countries
* 100 billion euros ($147 billion) per year by 2020 -- European Commission [ID:nLA157955]
* $140 billion per year by 2020 -- Greenpeace
PROPOSALS ON HOW TO RAISE MONEY
1. Norwegian proposal
* Set quotas of greenhouse gas emissions permits for rich nations for 2013-2020 of which 2 percent would be sold to them to raise funds
* Could raise $15-25 billion per year
2. Mexican proposal
* Raise an international fund from all nations, based on their responsibility for causing climate change, national wealth and population
* Could initially raise $10 billion per year
3. European Commission proposal
* Expansion of carbon markets whereby rich countries earn rights to pollute by paying for emissions cuts in the South
* Could raise up to 38 billion euros per year
4. Least Developed Countries' proposal -- Levy on international jet and shipping fuels.
* Could raise $28 billion per year
CLIMATE FUNDS ALREADY ON THE TABLE
1. Germany -- Is raising about 120 million euros per year in climate funds for developing countries from selling pollution permits to industry
2. Global adaptation fund -- Raised from a 2 percent levy on the global carbon market. Valued at just 83 million euros so far
3. World Bank's climate investment funds for developing nations -- pledges of over $6.1 billion from rich countries
4. Norway funds to slow deforestation -- Will provide up to 3 billion crowns ($510 million) a year to combat deforestation. Has committed 700 million ($119 million) to an Amazon fund
FACTBOX: U.N. summit seeks to end deadlock on CO2 cuts
Reuters 18 Sep 09;
(Reuters) - World leaders will meet at U.N. headquarters in New York on September 22 to try to break deadlock over a new U.N. climate pact, including how to share out curbs on greenhouse gas emissions between rich and poor.
Offers for emissions cuts by industrialized nations, many of them hit by recession, are far short of demands by poorer nations such as China and India. That standoff is a threat to a U.N. climate deal due in Copenhagen in December.
Developing nations say the rich have caused global warming by burning fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution and need to make far deeper cuts than the total offered so far, averaging between 11 and 15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.
Following is an outline of offers and demands for greenhouse gas cuts ahead of the meeting:
* DEVELOPED NATIONS' OFFERS
(percentage cut in greenhouse gas emissions
from 1990 levels by 2020)
Australia -3 to -23
Belarus -5 to -10
Canada -3
European Union -20 to -30
Iceland -15
Japan -25
Liechtenstein -20 to -30
Monaco -20
New Zealand -10 to -20
Norway -30
Russia -10 to -15
Switzerland -20 to -30
Ukraine -20
United States 0
TOTAL -11 to -15
(NOTE: U.S. offer based on President Barack Obama's goal of returning U.S. emissions to 1990 levels by 2020)
* U.N. CLIMATE PANEL FINDINGS
The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), drawing on work by 2,500 experts, has indicated that developed nations would have to cut emissions by between 25 and 40 percent by 2020 below 1990 levels to avoid the worst of climate change.
* DEVELOPING NATIONS' DEMANDS
China, India and many major developing nations say that the industrialized countries should cut by at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, arguing that signs of global warming have worsened since the last IPCC report in 2007.
Least Developed Countries and the Alliance of Small Island States, totaling about 80 nations among the most vulnerable to climate change, say that the rich should cut by at least 45 percent below 1990 by 2020.
* CURBS FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS
The IPCC said that developing nations emissions should show a "substantial deviation" below projected rises in emissions by 2020. The European Union says this means a curb of 15-30 percent below business as usual.
Developing nations have agreed to take "nationally appropriate mitigation actions" to curb emissions but say that their priority is on ending poverty. Developing nations say that the rich have to lead, and provide billions of dollars in extra aid to the poor, if they want the poor to act.
