Jeffrey D. Sachs, Straits Times 9 Oct 09;
THE key to climate change control lies in improved technology.
There are enough options available to suggest that the world can control climate change at a reasonable cost - perhaps 1 per cent of global income per year - while enabling the world economy to continue to grow. One of the most exciting developments on the horizon is the new generation of electric cars.
In the earliest days of the car in the late 19th century, many versions competed with each other - steam, battery and the internal combustion engine. The petrol and diesel-powered internal combustion engines won with the success of the Model T, which first rolled off the assembly line in 1908. A hundred years later, competition is again stirring.
The age of electric vehicles is upon us. The Toyota Prius, a hybrid-electric vehicle first introduced in 1997, marked an initial breakthrough. By connecting a small generator and rechargeable battery to the braking system of a standard car, the hybrid augments the normal engine with a battery-powered motor. Petrol mileage is sufficiently enhanced to make the hybrid commercially viable.
More innovation is on the way, led by General Motors' plug-in hybrid, the Chevy Volt, at the end of next year. While the Prius is a normal internal combustion engine with a small motor, the Volt will be an electric vehicle with an engine alongside.
The Volt's battery will be a high-performance lithium-ion unit, promising a range of 65km per charge and a six-hour recharge time drawing from a normal wall socket. Based on typical driving patterns, the Volt will get so many kilometres on the battery that it will achieve around 100km per litre of petrol.
Mr Larry Burns, the visionary head of GM's research and development until his recent retirement, sees the electric vehicle as much more than an opportunity to save petrol. According to him, it will reshape the energy grid, redefine driving patterns and generally improve the quality of life in urban areas.
First, there will be many types of electric vehicles, including the plug-in hybrid, the all-battery vehicle and vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells, essentially a battery fed by an external source of hydrogen. These different vehicles will be able to tap into countless energy sources.
Solar, wind or nuclear power - all free of CO2 emissions - can feed the power grid that will recharge the batteries. Similarly, these renewable energy sources can be used to split water into hydrogen and hydroxyl ions, and then use the hydrogen to power the hydrogen fuel cell.
Secondly, the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet will play an important role in stabilising the power grid. Not only will battery-powered vehicles draw power from the grid during recharging, but, when parked, they can also feed additional power back into the grid during periods of peak demand. Vehicles will become part of the overall power grid.
Thirdly, electric-powered vehicles will open up a new world of 'smart' vehicles, in which sensor systems and vehicle- to-vehicle communications will enable collision protection, traffic routing, and remote management of the vehicle.
The integration of information technology and the vehicle's propulsion system will thereby introduce new standards of safety, convenience and maintenance.
These are visionary ideas, yet they are within technological reach. But implementing these concepts will require new forms of public-private partnership.
Car manufacturers, utility companies, broadband providers, and government road builders will each have to contribute to an integrated system. The public sector will have to put forward funding to enable the new generation of vehicles to reach commercialisation - through research and development outlays, consumer subsidies and support for infrastructure such as outlets for recharging in public places.
The new age of the electric vehicle exemplifies the powerful opportunities we can grasp as we move from the unsustainable fossil-fuel age to a new age of sustainable technologies. Our climate negotiators today bicker with each other because they view the climate challenge only in negative terms: Who will pay to reduce fossil-fuel use?
Yet Mr Burns' vision reminds us that the transition to sustainability can bring real breakthroughs in the quality of life.
We need to rethink the climate challenge as an opportunity for global brainstorming and cooperation on a series of technological breakthroughs to achieve sustainable development.
The writer is professor of Economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
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