But minister expects expanding rail network to win over commuters
Christopher Tan, Straits Times 27 Oct 09;
THE Government's push to get more people onto buses and trains has hit a speed bump.
Motorists are not giving up their cars, going by data from the 2008 Household Interview Travel Survey.
In fact, public transport's share of the total number of trips made during the morning peak period shrank to 59 per cent last year from 63 per cent in 2004 and 67 per cent in 1997.
The stark and persistent retreat is because of a substantial rise in the number of cars on the road, and also because they are being used more frequently.
Transport Minister Raymond Lim, who last year set the target of raising public transport's share of trips to 70 per cent by 2020, released the data yesterday at the 2nd World Roads Conference.
He noted that while public transport journeys increased by 16 per cent, car journeys jumped 31 per cent.
'The heavier car usage has led to an overall drop in the public transport mode share last year,' said the minister.
Between 2004 and last year, car numbers grew by 32 per cent to 550,500.
Despite the setback, Mr Lim said yesterday he was hopeful the long-term goal was still achievable, in part by reducing the vehicle growth rate.
The allowable annual growth rate was halved this year to 1.5 per cent, 'and we will assess this again in 2012 to see if a further reduction is necessary'.
Dr Lim Wee Kiak, head of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport, believes transport planners should have been more aggressive in reducing the supply of certificates of entitlement (COEs) when premiums started falling three years ago.
He said: 'They have an inflexible system. They tend to stick to the growth rate once they have announced it. I think they should be a bit like how the Ministry of National Development releases land - according to demand and the economy.'
The other strategy highlighted by Minister Lim: Expanding the rail network.
He cited the north-east corridor as an example of an area which 'bucked the trend' and saw its share of public transport trips go up noticeably. This was down to the North-East MRT Line.
When the line opened in mid-2003, ridership was 170,000 a day. It has more than doubled to almost 380,000 now.
As such, public transport's share of trips in the sector rose from 52 per cent in 2004 to 55 per cent last year - the only region to see an improvement.
Mr Lim said new MRT lines - such as the Downtown, Eastern Region and Thomson lines - should have a similar effect elsewhere. In total, the Government has committed $40 billion to double the rail network to 280km by 2020.
'If we proceed with what we have announced...we should be able to make progress in reversing the trend,' he said.
The survey, which involved 10,500 households, also found that an average of 11 million trips were made daily last year - up 24 per cent from 2004 and much closer to the 2020 projection of 14.3 million daily trips.
Observers were confident of having 70 per cent of morning trips made by public transport in just over 10 years.
Public Transport Council chairman Gerard Ee said: 'I am optimistic because by 2020, we will have the same rail density as New York today. Even if we don't meet the target, we will get pretty close to it.'
Dr Lim said meeting the target may also depend on 'the disincentives of driving, such as congestion and high ERP and parking charges'.
'But I hope it won't be because of that,' he said, but rather because 'buses and trains are faster, more convenient and less crowded than they are today.'
Associate Professor Anthony Chin of the National University of Singapore's economics department noted that the fact that 'COE prices are rising during this (economic) doldrum shows people are willing to pay for speed and convenience'.
He said: 'If someone lives in Changi and works in Clementi, and commuting by public transport takes 11/2 hours, and a car takes 20 minutes, you don't need a PhD to know which mode he will pick.'
This is another target transport planners have in their sights - to complete 80 per cent of public transport trips door-to-door in under an hour by 2015 - up from 71 per cent today.
Additional reporting by Maria Almenoar
Uneasy riders
Measures so far fail to get Singaporeans to switch to buses, trains
Leong Wee Keat, Today Online 27 Oct 09;
SINGAPORE - The anecdotes - of more crowded trains, of drivers not willing to pay higher Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) - had suggested that the target was on track, and the numbers - of rising revenue and ridership - seemed to back this up.
Yet, public transport has continued its slide in popularity in Singapore, indicating that Transport Minister Raymond Lim's goal to get Singaporeans to accept a bus or train as their "other car" still hinges on the key factor of connectivity and convenience.
Which means, say analysts, it will take a few years - when major infrastructural works such as the Circle Line are fully operational - before more of the commuting population switches from private to public transport.
Public transport as a predominant mode of transport fell to 59 per cent last year, down from 63 per cent in 2004 and 67 per cent in 1997, according to the 2008 Household Interview Travel Survey released yesterday.
Heavier car usage was the cause, Mr Lim said yesterday. While public transport journeys grew by 16 per cent between 2004 and 2008, car journeys surged by 31 per cent.
The figures surprised some analysts, 18 months after the launch of a land transport masterplan that boasted initiatives such as the expansion of bus lanes and more frequent train services.
But population expansion seems to have played a bigger role in ridership numbers. The survey of 10,500 households - conducted between July last year and March this year, to measure peak-hour travel - had some wondering if ERP was not working as it should be.
But the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said, traffic speeds within the Central Business District (CBD) have been restored to the optimal range of 20 to 30kmh, and while peak-hour traffic volume grew by 25 per cent islandwide, there was only a 15-per-cent increase in traffic volumes in the CBD.
While car usage rose commensurate with the 32-per-cent growth in vehicle population between 2004 and 2008, this was a much better situation than in the past; between 1997 and 2004, a 10-per-cent growth in car population led to a 23-per-cent growth in car journeys.
"The slower growth is likely due to more off-peak cars and more households owning more than one car," said LTA.
Time needed and more measures, possibly?
More starkly put, the fall in public transport's share of the travel pie was due to the lack of major infrastructural improvements in the sector, as the population of vehicles and people continued to grow between 2004 and 2008.
The Circle Line will be fully ready in 2011, for instance, while the 40km Downtown Line will be completed from 2013 onward. With only five stations now, ridership on the Circle Line for August was in the low 30,000s, compared to the 45,000 to 55,000 expected.
National University of Singapore transport economist Anthony Chin said his students' recent study of 350 motorists also found that some 35 per cent of drivers are willing to switch to public transport only if bus arrivals are more reliable.
There have been improvements in this area. For example, the expansion of normal bus lanes and full-day bus lanes have boosted bus speeds for the services on such routes, by up to 8 and 13 per cent respectively.
But the reactions of motorists like Jerome Ang, who bought a car in 2005, are common. He now has to take a bus to Braddell or Toa Payoh MRT stations to catch a train. "If stations are within walking distance, I would consider giving up (driving)," said the 28-year-old.
Analysts suggested that the vehicle growth rate could be tweaked further if dangling carrots does not work.
On this, the Transport Minister said yesterday the Government would assess whether a further reduction of the 1.5-per-cent growth rate is necessary in 2012. The previous 3-per-cent growth rate was halved earlier this year.
Asked if it would be difficult to reach the target of increasing the share of public transport to 70 per cent, Mr Lim said: "Most of the strategies are there. I think if we implement them and the expansion of the rail network, all these will make an impact."
Would the Government speed up the construction of the rail infrastructure? "We're going as fast as we can," he said.
