Their credibility is at stake, even without a legally binding accord
Jessica Cheam, Straits Times 23 Dec 09;
IF THERE is a silver lining to the recently-concluded climate talks, it is that the momentum to curb greenhouse gas emissions looks likely to continue beyond Copenhagen.
Key countries in Asia, in particular China and Indonesia, have indicated they will go ahead with pledges to reduce the growth of emissions even though the United Nations conference did not produce a legally-binding pact.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in Copenhagen last week that his country would honour its pledge to voluntarily reduce its carbon emissions intensity by 40 to 45per cent by 2020, without any conditions. This refers to emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP).
Like China's voluntary action, India also announced early this month that it would reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 20 to 25per cent of 2005 levels by 2020.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said recently that Indonesia would prepare a number of concrete steps without waiting for the adoption of a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012, state news agency Antara reported.
'Besides the updated national action plan, we have to ensure that regional action plans will be attached to it. By doing so, we do not need to wait for the adoption of a new protocol,' he was quoted as saying.
Indonesia, which is the world's third- largest emitter after China and the United States, has pledged an emissions cut of 26per cent from business as usual (BAU) levels by 2020.
Analysts told The Straits Times that the momentum to take action on curbing pollution would likely continue, with countries adopting their own national plans despite Copenhagen's outcome.
It is 'a matter of national pride' that countries do what they say, said the Asian Development Bank's deputy director-general for regional and sustainable development, Mr Woochong Um. 'Countries will take some actions now, and perhaps ramp it up if there's a global binding deal in the future,' he said.
Singapore will start making good on its pledge to bring down its own level of carbon emissions growth, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said recently.
But whether it can reach the full target of 16per cent below BAU levels by 2020 will depend on an eventual legally binding global deal to fight climate change, he added.
After the 12-day climate conference, which was extended by a day, the countries agreed to take note of the Copenhagen Accord, a deal shaped by the US, China, India, South Africa and Brazil.
The document states that countries will list pledges to fight climate change and take action to prevent the Earth's temperature from rising by more than 2degC.
Funding of US$30billion (S$42billion) in the next three years will also be provided by rich nations to help poorer nations cope with climate change. This will be raised to US$100billion a year by 2020.
Senior policy analyst Julian Wong at the Centre for American Progress, a Washington-based think-tank, said that despite criticism, the accord 'represents a sea change in global climate politics' in that major emitters China and the US are committing to mitigation actions.
'They are under intense international scrutiny and pressure to act,' he said.
'To renege on their verbal promises on climate action would severely undercut their international credibility,' he added.
International policy director Mark Kenber of The Climate Group, an international think-tank that boasts former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a campaigner, noted that though the accord 'falls short in setting a clear pathway for the reduction of emissions, it is a start'.
Countries are due to submit their pledges to reduce emissions to the UN by end of next month.
'Countries need to complete the task of agreeing to a legally binding treaty, and to enshrine their most ambitious pledges into national legislation,' said Mr Kenber.
Companies and individuals, too, can do their part through their businesses and consumer decisions to 'make the radical shift necessary' to achieve a low-carbon economy, he added.
