Reuters 17 Dec 09;
The refinery in the central Croatian town of Sisak is seen on a foggy late autumn morning December 2, 2009. REUTERS/Nikola Solic
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Pledges so far by all nations for curbing greenhouse gases would mean a world temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius, above many estimates of "dangerous" climate change, according to a U.N. document seen on Thursday.
The internal U.N. paper, dated December 15, was leaked to Reuters as climate talks reached a climax in Copenhagen, where about 120 world leaders were gathering to try to agree a global climate pact, including ambitious carbon cuts.
Industrialized nations have set a 2 Celsius warming as the maximum limit to avoid dangerous climate changes including more floods, droughts and rising seas.
The note by the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat said that present pledges were not enough, exceeding safer emissions limits by about 1.9-4.2 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases a year by 2020.
That would result in an "unsustainable pathway that could lead to ... a temperature rise of about 3 degrees," it said.
Further steps were "possible and necessary," it said.
The paper suggested that rich countries may have to cut their emissions by a more ambitious goal than previously thought. It also assessed emissions curbs announced by countries including China, India and South Africa.
A U.N. panel of climate scientists, the IPCC, recommended in 2007 cuts of 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 to give the world a 50 percent chance of staying below a 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise.
The U.N. paper said rich nations should cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by 2020 versus 1990 levels to stay within 2 degrees.
A safe limit required "the aggregated emission reductions by Annex 1 Parties (rich countries) of at least 30 percent below the base-line (1990) levels," said the paper.
To avoid more than 2 degrees warming developing countries should also "reduce their emissions by at least 20 percent below business as usual," the paper added.
The IPCC suggested developing nations should limit emissions by 15-30 percent below current trends by 2020.
Emissions pledges fall way short: leaked UN memo
Yahoo News 17 Dec 09;
COPENHAGEN (AFP) – Pledges tabled so far at the UN climate talks for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions would doom the world to warming of as much as three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), an internal UN memo showed Thursday.
Nations most at risk from rising sea levels have been pushing for commitments to limit the rise to no more than 1.5 C (2.7 F) over pre-industrial levels while many other countries endorse a maximum of 2.0 C (3.6 F).
But the memo seen by AFP concludes that even the top-end offers on the table at the negotiations would set the planet on course for a 3.0 C (5.4 F) warming, a scenario viewed by scientists as deeply worrying.
The memo, marked "very confidential", dates from late Wednesday.
It highlights a significant gap between mitigation pledges -- from both rich countries and emerging economies -- and what is "needed to achieve stabilisation of the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere that is consistent with the goal of staying below 2.0 C."
Unless the gap is closed, "global emissions will remain on an unsustainable pathway that could lead to concentrations (of carbon dioxide) equal or above 550 parts per million (ppm) with the related temperature raise around 3.0 C," said the document.
More than 100 mainly poor and vulnerable countries have staked out a position calling for a ceiling of only a 1.5 C (2.7 F) increase, which corresponds to carbon dioxide concentrations of 350 ppm.
The memo was authenticated by the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), tasked with shepherding the hugely complex talks to a successful conclusion.
"All these studies, including the leaked UNFCCC report, are aiming at a level of emissions in 2020 that would give at best a 50-percent chance of keeping warming below two degrees," Greenpeace said in a statement.
"This is like playing Russian roulette with three bullets in the barrel."
