Mark Kinver, BBC News 10 Dec 09;
The global average temperature could reach a record high in 2010, according to the UK's Met Office.
Forecasters predict that the annual figure for 2010 will be 14.58C (58.24F), 0.58C (1.04F) above the long-term average of 14.0C (57.2F).
They say the combination of climate change and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean are set to drive up temperatures next year.
The current record record is 14.52C (58.14F), which was set in 1998.
"The latest forecast from our climate scientists shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6C above the 1961-90 long-term average," a Met Office statement said.
"This means that it is more likely than not 2010 will be the warmest in the instrumental record that dates back to 1860."
However it added: "A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Nino was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption.
"We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available."
The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains one of the three global temperature records that is used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Warming world
The current record year, 1998, was dominated by an "extreme El Nino" condition - the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific that releases heat stored in the deep ocean into the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally.
Earlier this week, the Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization said that the first decade of this century was "by far" the warmest since the instrumental record began.
Their analyses also showed that 2009 would almost certainly be the fifth warmest in the 160-year record.
Burgeoning El Nino conditions, adding to man-made greenhouse warming, had pushed 2009 into the "top 10" years, the organisations explained.
2010 could be warmest year on record
Emily Beament, Press Association The Independent 10 Dec 09;
Next year could be the warmest year on record, the Met Office said today as officials at UN talks in Copenhagen continued negotiations in a bid to secure a new deal to tackle climate change.
The forecast from climate scientists said a combination of man-made global warming and a weather pattern - known as El Nino - heating the Pacific Ocean would make it very likely that 2010 would be warmer than 2009.
This year is expected to be the fifth warmest on record.
But the researchers sounded a note of caution, warning that a record year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Nino declined or there was a large volcanic eruption.
The latest figures were unveiled as more than 1,700 scientists, led by the Met Office, signed a statement defending global warming research in the face of criticism by sceptics, who seized on stolen emails to claim experts have been manipulating evidence to support a theory of man-made climate change.
A separate report on ocean acidification published at the climate talks in the Danish capital underlined the dangers of rising carbon dioxide emissions to the world's seas and coral reefs and the people who depend on them for food, livelihoods and protection from floods and storms.
As the impacts of rising emissions were highlighted, campaigners demanded rich nations put their "money where their mouth is" and agree to massive funding to help poor countries tackle climate change.
Billionaire philanthropist George Soros, speaking to delegates at the conference, warned the current offer for a "fast start" 10 billion dollar fund to help poor countries was "not sufficient".
Despite divisions among negotiators, momentum towards a deal continued with the Kremlin announcing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev would join more than 100 world leaders at the closing days of the talks.
And a raft of British ministers, including Gordon Brown, will attend the crunch meeting in the bid to get an ambitious deal on global warming, UK officials said.
EU leaders are meeting at a summit in Brussels today and tomorrow to discuss climate change, the economy, and a new jobs and growth strategy for Europe.
Environmentalists and aid agencies have urged EU leaders to disregard a letter from business lobby group Business Europe which calls for European countries to refrain from upping their target for emissions cuts from the weaker 20% level to 30%.
And they called for Britain's biggest business group, the CBI, to distance itself from the demand.
The level of emissions cuts that developed countries are prepared to sign up to and the efforts developing countries will make to curb the greenhouse gases causing climate change is one of the key issues of the conference.
The most vulnerable low-lying island states, led by Tuvalu, have called for more aggressive curbing of emissions than planned to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C, rather than the 2C target backed by developed countries, because of the risk rising sea levels pose to their nations.
The issue of finance also remains a major sticking point, with Mr Soros warning the gap between rich and poor countries on providing money could "wreck" the conference.
He suggested using International Monetary Fund (IMF) resources to provide immediate finance for poor countries to develop clean technology and adapting to climate change - a suggestion which met with mixed response among environmental and anti-poverty campaigners.
Under the plans, money that had been aimed at major developed economies to help with the global financial crisis could be redirected at developing countries to jump-start investment in areas including low carbon technology and reforestation and protection of forests.
Robert Bailey, Oxfam International's senior climate advisor said: "Soros' proposal shows exactly the kind of ambition and urgency we need to see from rich country governments themselves."
He added: "With just one week to go, it's time for governments to stop side-stepping climate finance and put their money where their mouth is."
But Tom Picken, international climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth, warned: "More money for developing countries is vital, but this proposal offers loans, not grants."
He said the scheme would only be worth exploring if it were on the basis of grants, not loans, was governed by the UN instead of the IMF and did not rely on carbon markets working in the future to give the necessary returns on projects to pay back the interest.
And Greenpeace International executive director, Kumi Naidoo, said: "Money is one of the keys to a good outcome in Copenhagen. It is needed to build trust to get a climate saving deal.
"But money alone will not do it. We need political will to clinch the fair, ambitious and legally binding treaty needed to avert catastrophic climate change."
10 years to avoid climate change catastrophe, warns Met Office
Matt Dickinson, Press Association The Independent 10 Dec 09;
Carbon emissions must start to fall within 10 years to limit the global temperature rise to the crucial 2C mark, experts at the Met Office warned.
Even if emissions peaked in 2020, there would be a 50/50 chance of temperatures rising by more than two degrees and heralding potential global catastrophe, scientists told the Copenhagen climate change conference.
Leading industrialised nations have agreed that global warming should be limited to 2C above pre-industrial levels to avoid "dangerous" climate change, and it is one of issues being debated in Denmark.
The Met Office's Avoid study - carried out with several other British scientific groups - found that limiting the rise to 1.5C was now "virtually impossible" because of all the greenhouse gases already pumped out.
That goal has been called for by some poor African countries and small island states - areas of the world seen as being most at risk from global warming.
Even if emissions were suddenly reduced to nothing, there would still be a rise of 1.3C because of the existing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, Avoid has found.
Researchers calculated that if emissions started falling by 4% per year after 2018 that would give a 50% chance of keeping warming below 2C.
But if the peak came just two years later in 2020, the decline would then have to be 5% per year to deliver the same odds.
Vicky Pope, the Met Office's head of climate science, told the BBC: "If you go to 2025 before peaking, it's virtually impossible to stay under 2C."
She added: "There's no way you'd get a 50 [er cent chance of avoiding 1.5C."
Delegates in Copenhagen heard that ensuring a reasonable chance of keeping the temperature rise under 1.5C would involve "negative emissions" - or removing CO2 from the air.
If carbon output peaks later than 2020, "geo-engineering" techniques such as mirrors in space and artificial trees would be needed to hit the 2C target.
More than 190 countries are gathered in Copenhagen for UN climate change talks.
Earlier this week the Met Office said the past decade has been the warmest period in the 160-year record of global surface temperatures.
