Yahoo News 20 Dec 09;
LEGASPI, Philippines (AFP) – The Philippine government warned Sunday that Mayon volcano could erupt violently within days following a week of spectacular flows of lava and increasing volcanic quakes.
Government volcanologists raised the alert level around Mayon to level four, meaning there could be an eruption in a matter of days.
"We raised it to level four this afternoon because there was a sudden acceleration in the activity of the volcano," said July Sabit, head of the volcano monitoring team.
Local civil defence head Raffy Alejandro said that the military and police had evacuated more than 8,600 of the 9,000 or so families living within an eight-kilometre (five-mile) danger zone declared around Mayon.
The military and police will now tighten the controls over the danger zone and ensure that no one is left there or allowed to enter, said Joey Salceda, governor of Albay province, where Mayon is located.
The officials warned that they would take forceful measures to remove villagers who did not want to leave their farms.
"We try to do the persuasive thing but if (it) gets bad, the governor has instructions to forcibly evacuate them," Alejandro added.
Despite the warnings, many villagers are reluctant to leave and may sneak back to their farms to harvest their produce or protect their livestock.
Sabit said the alert level around Mayon was raised after the number of volcanic quakes increased to 463 from 8:00 am (0000 GMT) Sunday compared with about 245 for the whole of Saturday.
The volcano was also belching more sulphur dioxide into the air and rumbling sounds were detected inside, the volcanologists said.
The government has already evacuated more than 8,600 of the 9,000 or so families living within an eight-kilometre (five mile) danger zone set up around Mayon, civil defence officials said.
Chief government volcanologist Renato Solidum told reporters that "what we are preparing for is a hazardous eruption and a quick descent of pyroclastic ashflow."
He said the ashflow would remain within six kilometres of the 2,460 metre (8,070 feet) volcano.
"But naturally, we have a buffer zone," just to make sure, he said.
Mayon could remain silent after an initial eruption before erupting yet again, said the volcanologists.
Although ash from the volcano was unlikely to threaten residents directly, there was a risk it could turn into a deadly mudflow, as happened in 2006, when hundreds of people were swept away, the officials said.
While no one was directly killed by that eruption, tons of debris that had collected on Mayon's slopes were dislodged by a typhoon three months later. The avalanche of mud and boulders crushed entire villages, leaving over 1,000 dead.
Mayon, renowned for its near-perfect cone, has erupted 48 times in recorded history. In 1814, more than 1,200 people were killed as lava buried the town of Cagsawa.
Major volcanic eruption feared in Philippines
Bullit Marquez, Associated Press Yahoo News 20 Dec 09;
LEGAZPI, Philippines – The Philippines' most active volcano could have a huge eruption within days, officials warned Sunday after detecting a drastic surge in earthquakes and eerie rumbling sounds in surrounding foothills. Tens of thousands of villagers have been evacuated as a precaution.
Scientists raised the alert level for the Mayon volcano after 453 volcanic earthquakes were detected in a five-hour span Sunday, compared to just over 200 Saturday, said Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.
The five-step warning system was raised to level four, meaning a hazardous eruption "is possible within days." Level five is when a major eruption has begun.
Army troops and police will intensify patrols to enforce a round-the-clock ban on villagers moving within a five-mile (eight-kilometer) danger zone around the 8,070-foot (2,460-meter) mountain, said Gov. Joey Salceda of Albay province, about 210 miles (340 kilometers) southeast of Manila.
More than 40,000 villagers have been moved to school buildings and other emergency shelters, but some have still been spotted checking on their farms in the prohibited zone. Salceda said about 5,000 more villagers were being evacuated away from the volcano.
The cone-shaped volcano began emitting red-hot lava and puffing columns of ash last week. It belched a plume of grayish ash half a mile (nearly a kilometer) into the sky Sunday, and lava has flowed about 2.8 miles (4.5 kilometers) down the mountainside, Salceda said.
A major eruption can trigger pyroclastic flows — superheated gas and volcanic debris that can race down the slopes at very high speed, vaporizing everything in their path. There can be more extensive ejections of ash, which can drift toward nearby townships.
In Mayon's major eruptions in recent years, such pyroclastic flows have reached up to four miles (six kilometers) down from the crater on the volcano's southern flank — a farming region where most residents have been evacuated, Salceda said.
Army checkpoints have been set up and patrols have been intensified to ensure residents will not sneak back to check on their homes and farms, as some have done in recent days, Salceda said.
"I have set a very high bar, which is zero casualty," Salceda told The Associated Press. "If there's a lull and you step back into the danger zone, you'll immediately be escorted out."
The evacuations were unfortunate, coming so close before Christmas, but authorities will find ways to bring holiday cheer to displaced villagers in emergency shelters, he said.
He said residents are used to playing a "cat and mouse" game with Mayon, a popular tourist attraction because of its near-perfect cone shape.
Residents who briefly returned to their homes within the danger zone Sunday morning to check on their belongings reported hearing eerie rumbling sounds. Some were seen by journalists tending to their farms within the prohibited zone near Guinobatan township.
In 1991, Mount Pinatubo exploded in the northern Philippines in one of the world's biggest volcanic eruptions of the 20th century, killing about 800 people.
Mayon last erupted in 2006, when about 30,000 people were moved. Another eruption in 1993 killed 79 people.
The first recorded eruption was in 1616 but the most destructive came in 1814, killing more than 1,200 people and burying a town in volcanic mud. The ruins of the church in Cagsawa have become an iconic tourist spot.
