Michael Richardson, For The Straits Times 7 Dec 09;
WHERE does South- east Asia rank in greenhouse gas emissions?
The short answer is that the region is an important source of worldwide emissions, mainly from deforestation. And it is expected to become a bigger source in future.
Asean countries are also vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather. They cannot afford to be passive bystanders in Copenhagen.
In April, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published a report saying South-east Asia contributed 12 per cent of the carbon dioxide, methane and other global warming gases from human activity in 2000. This was almost certainly an underestimate, since the survey covered only five Asean countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam).
The ADB found that cutting or burning of forests to convert the land to plantations and other uses was by far the biggest source of South-east Asia's emissions, contributing 75 per cent of the region's total. The energy sector contributed 15 per cent, and agriculture 8 per cent, mainly methane from growing rice in water-saturated fields.
The ADB based its calculation on statistics that were nine years old. However, the report noted that Southeast Asia's total greenhouse gas emissions were rising at a faster rate than the global average because the region's economic growth was higher.
Checking emissions is a far-from- exact science, particularly when information from many developing countries is scant. The profile also changes from year to year. While Singapore and Malaysia have significantly reduced emissions of carbon dioxide by switching to gas in generating electricity, other Asean countries have intensified their use of more carbon-intensive coal in power generation.
Energy conservation and efficiency measures of the kind announced last week by Singapore would reduce the rate of emissions growth if they were applied across the region. However, for South-east Asia, the greatest potential for cutting emissions is in forestry. The panel of scientists and officials advising the United Nations climate change summit estimates that in 2004, deforestation was responsible for just over 17 per cent of the world's greenhouse emissions.
A study published last month by scientists affiliated to the Global Carbon Project concluded that this figure fell to 12 per cent last year, down from 20 per cent in the 1990s, probably because wet conditions limited forest fires in South-east Asia, where Indonesia has been the main source of emissions.
Researchers have said that in some drought years, when forest fires raged out of control and peat swamps dried out and caught fire, Indonesia was the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter, after China and the United States.
One way to prevent the emissions level from rising again would be for negotiators to agree on a proposed scheme that would pay Indonesia and other tropical forest nations not just to halt logging, but also to re-plant degraded forests and plant new ones.
The scheme being discussed in Copenhagen, known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (Redd), still faces serious problems. But it is among the issues that appear to have achieved the most progress in the negotiations.
'That is because we are looking at a huge global emissions source,' said Mr Paul Winn, forest and climate campaigner for Greenpeace Australia. 'There is also the recognition that it is a relatively cheap, easy form of emission reductions.'
Some rich countries, such as the US and Australia, want Redd to be structured so that their energy-intensive companies can offset emissions at home by paying for forest conservation and expansion in developing countries.
While corruption, illegal logging and mismanagement of forests will be big obstacles in implementing any agreed Redd scheme, the potential for expanding forests is huge. Last month, the Global Partnership on Forest Restoration announced that new satellite surveys had shown that more than a billion hectares of former forest land and degraded forest could be restored to healthy forests. That is the equivalent of around 6 per cent of the planet's total land area. Many of the most promising forest restoration opportunities identified by the satellite mapping are in South-east Asia.
Forests once covered more than half of the world's land area. Today, that figure is below 30 per cent and each year a further seven million hectares of forest are lost.
Halting and then reversing this loss will not be easy. But if developed countries are prepared to underwrite a global reforestation programme, it could help both the climate and the rural poor.
The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
