Reuters 16 Dec 09;
(Reuters) - About 120 U.N. world leaders are aiming to try to end deadlock at a U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen that is meant to agree a new deal on Friday for fighting global warming.
Following are possible scenarios:
WHAT'S THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME?
The most robust would be legal texts including deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by developed nations by 2020, actions by developing nations to slow their rising emissions, and a package for finance and technology to help poor nations. Almost all nations reckon that a legal text is out of reach.
WHAT SORT OF DEAL IS MORE LIKELY?
World leaders could agree only what they call a "politically binding" text and try to set a deadline for transforming it into a full legal text sometime in 2010.
IF THERE IS A DEAL, WHAT WOULD IT SAY?
The easiest global goal would be to agree to limit global warming to a maximum temperature rise of 2 Celsius above pre-industrial times. The poorest nations and small island states want a tougher limit of 1.5 Celsius. A big problem is that a temperature goal does not bind individual nations to act.
A slightly firmer, but still distant, target is to agree to at least to halve world greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. But China and India and other developing nations have opposed such a goal in the past, saying rich nations first have to make far deeper cuts in their emissions by 2020.
WHAT DO RICH NATIONS HAVE TO DO?
They would have to set deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in the years until 2020. A U.N. panel of climate scientists suggested in 2007 that emissions would have to fall by between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 to help avert the worst of climate change, such as more droughts, species extinctions, floods and rising seas. Industrialized nations' offers of cuts by 2020 so far range from about 14 to 18 percent.
HOW ABOUT DEVELOPING NATIONS?
They would have to commit to a "substantial deviation" to slow the rise in their greenhouse gas emissions below projected growth rates by 2020, for instance by shifting to more use of solar or wind power and away from coal-fired power plants.
HOW ABOUT MONEY TO HELP THE POOR?
The latest text is blank on the amounts to be committed. The United Nations wants to raise at least $10 billion a year from 2010-2012 in new funds to help kickstart a deal to help developing nations. Many nations also speak of raising the amount to $100 billion a year from 2020 to help the poor.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE TALKS FAIL?
One option if the talks end in deadlock is to "suspend" the meeting and reconvene sometime in 2010 -- a similar deadlock happened at talks in The Hague in November 2000. A full breakdown in talks could deepen mistrust between rich and poor nations and undermine confidence in the U.N. system. It would probably also halt consideration by the U.S. Senate of legislation to cap U.S. emissions -- other nations' goals might in turn unravel.
FACTBOX: Main issues, progress in Copenhagen climate talks
Reuters 16 Dec 09;
(Reuters) - About 115 world leaders and 193 countries are meeting in Copenhagen to agree the outlines of a new global deal to combat climate change.
Negotiators hope to seal a full climate treaty next year to succeed the Kyoto Protocol whose present round ends in 2012.
Following are key issues yet to be agreed, and some areas of possible agreement if draft texts are approved.
ONE TREATY OR TWO?
* No agreement yet on whether to extend Kyoto and add extra national commitments under a separate pact, or end Kyoto and agree one new treaty which specifies actions by all countries
* Kyoto limits the emissions of nearly 40 industrialized countries from 2008-2012, but the United States never ratified the pact and it doesn't bind the emissions of developing nations
* Developed countries prefer one new treaty
* Developing nations want to preserve the Kyoto Protocol and agree a separate deal which also binds the United States and which includes finance for and action by developing nations
TERMS OF NEW TREATY
* No agreement on whether new pact or pacts would run from 2013-2017 or 2013-2020
* No agreement on whether would be legally binding
DEADLINE FOR NEW DEAL
* Copenhagen aims to agree a global climate pact. No agreement yet on a deadline to make that into a full treaty
* "Our goal is ... for a legally binding climate treaty as early as possible in 2010," said U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday
LONG-TERM GOAL
* No agreement yet on a long-term goal to avoid dangerous climate change
* A U.N. text on Tuesday proposed choices to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and to cut global greenhouse gas emissions by between 50 and 95 percent by 2050
* Poorer nations oppose long-term global targets until rich countries commit to do more in the short-term
MID-TERM RICH NATION EMISSIONS CUTS
* No agreement yet on how far individual rich countries should cut their emissions by 2020
* No agreement on a reference year for those cuts, for example compared with 1990, 2000 or 2005
* A draft Kyoto text on Tuesday proposed options for cuts of 30-45 percent, and another proposed 25-40 percent cuts
* Rich countries have so far proposed 14-18 percent
* Developing nations including China want collective rich nation cuts of at least 40 percent
CLIMATE ACTION BY DEVELOPING NATIONS
* No agreement yet on how far poorer countries should commit to targets to curb growth in greenhouse gases
* Developed countries want poorer countries to "stand behind" their targets through some kind of international inspection, which developing nations reject
* A Tuesday draft proposed a registry to record developing country actions, but left open whether that was voluntary
FINANCE
* No agreement yet on how much rich nations should pay developing nations in the short or medium term to help them fight climate change
* Rich nations have suggested about $10 billion per year from 2010-2012 which China and African nations have rejected as not enough
* No agreement on how much rich countries should pay from 2013. Developing nations have suggested figures of at least mid-term $200-$300 billion climate aid annually by 2020, compared with a European Union proposal of $150 billion
* No agreement on how the finance bill will be split between countries
* A Tuesday text proposed a "climate fund" but did not specify how much that would be, who would govern it or who would pay into it
EXCLUDED SECTORS, LOOPHOLES
* No agreement on whether to include aviation and shipping, and make it mandatory to include farming and forestry in targets
* Kyoto excludes greenhouse gases from aviation and shipping, responsible for at least 5 percent of global emissions
* Under Kyoto industrialized countries don't have to include in their targets emissions from land use, including forests and farming
* Combined, farms and deforestation account for a third of global greenhouse gases
ROLE OF CARBON MARKETS
* No agreement yet on how to scale up carbon finance, where rich nations pay for emissions cuts in developing countries through trade in carbon offsets, for example by making bigger Kyoto's existing $6.5 billion clean development mechanism (CDM)
* The European Union wants the scheme to invest tens of billions annually in developing nations by 2020
* No agreement on whether to include carbon capture storage in the CDM, a technology which cuts carbon emissions from coal plants
* No agreement on including forest preservation in CDM
* Likely agreement to allow developers to appeal against U.N. panel rejections of CDM projects
FORESTRY
* Likely agreement on rewarding tropical countries which slow deforestation under a new deal
* The latest draft Tuesday text includes safeguards to protect indigenous people's rights and prevent rewards for conversion of virgin forests
* No agreement on how to fund forest preservation
(Reporting by Gerard Wynn, Editing by Dominic Evans, gerard.wynn@reuters.com; +44 207 542 2302)
