Arthur Sim, Business Times 24 Dec 09;
(SINGAPORE) Food prices have risen consistently over the past few months. And given erratic climatic conditions, they could become even more of a concern going forward.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 per cent in November from October. The increase was attributed mainly to the higher cost of housing, recreation and other items, and food.
As a result of dearer vegetables, fruits and rice and other cereals, food prices rose 0.2 per cent.
Housing costs went up 0.2 per cent on account of higher gas tariffs. The cost of 'recreation and others' increased 1.9 per cent owing to higher holiday travel costs.
Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho said food prices have been rising faster on a month-on-month basis. Pointing out that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) warned recently that it saw inflationary risks coming from fuel and food prices, Mr Leong said: 'We expect food price pressures to intensify in December, with Thai fragrant rice jumping above US$850 a tonne.'
The average price for Thai fragrant rice this year has been around US$760 a tonne.
Mr Leong added: 'Embedded in these numbers are not just symptoms of the recovering economy and the removal of excess capacity, but also a developing food price shock. We expect these price pressures to intensify as El Nino develops over the next three months.'
A recent report by HSBC Global Research also notes that rice prices have risen more than 25 per cent in recent months on supply fears for next year, 'stoked by Philippine and Indian import demand'.
In India, food prices have gone up 20 per cent this year.
HSBC said that while food prices are broadly still 'well behaved', rising demand and higher energy costs may push up indices.
And this could have an impact on Asian economies that are still in recovery mode.
HSBC notes that 'damaging' inflation episodes can occur if energy prices and food prices rise concurrently. This is what happened in 2008, when consumers were hit by higher energy and food costs, limiting their ability to offset one with the other, and ultimately depressing consumption spending that rendered the region vulnerable to the subsequent export downturn.
The trajectory of the CPI will have other implications, most notably on monetary policy, which is likely to take centrestage in 2010.
Already in India, with the Wholesale Price Index expected to hit 8 per cent by March, HSBC has revised its estimates for the Reserve Bank of India to raise its cash reserve ratio by 200 basis points (bps), from 150. Interbank or repo rates are estimated to increase by 125 bps, from 75 bps.
In Singapore, the CPI actually fell 0.2 per cent year- on-year in November, due to the high base effect of a year ago.
Alvin Liew, economist at Standard Chartered Bank Global Research, also believes there are no 'imminent concerns' about food prices. 'You have to expect an increase in food prices as an effect of the economic recovery,' he said .
He also reckons core underlying inflation (which excludes private road transport and housing costs) remains benign, and that the central bank is likely to take a conservative approach to monetary tightening.
Barclays' Mr Leong said: 'While the monetary policy stance will be tightened from where it was, the overall policy stance will still be largely accommodative in 2010. The exchange rate will be used to lean into imported inflation, while liquidity will remain flush and fiscal policy expansionary.'
