Michael Richardson, for The Straits Times 18 Jan 10;
RECENT start-ups hardly provide much evidence of the vaunted 'renaissance' in civilian nuclear power that promised reliable supplies of electricity without the greenhouse gas emissions associated with fossil fuels, especially coal.
Only two new nuclear plants began operation last year, one in Japan and the other in India. Since two reactors were shut down last year, that left the same number, 436, generating about 15 per cent of the world's electricity in 31 economies.
However, the pace of reactor construction is rising, particularly in Asia. While problems related to public acceptance, safety, disposal of radioactive waste and high capital costs have slowed the growth of nuclear power in Europe and North America, Asia has become the standard bearer for future expansion.
Of nearly 70 reactors under or close to construction, 45 are in Asia, including China (23), India (six), Japan (six) and South Korea (six).
EdF, the French nuclear power operator, has published global forecast figures up to 2020. These show 140 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity being built and 10GW decommissioned, to give 480GW in 2020, up from 370GW today.
Of the additional 140GW, 60 per cent is in Asia, leaving Europe, the Americas and Russia with about 12 per cent each.
Even so, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, nuclear power's share of worldwide electricity production will actually be a bit less in 2020 than it is now, although it might increase slightly by 2030.
However, the real significance is the rate of growth in Asia and the emergence of South Korea, China and India not just as sources of advanced nuclear technology, but also as exporters of nuclear plants, components and know-how.
The nuclear industry is rapidly globalising. As it does so, there will be sharper competition, costs and construction times are expected to fall - and more countries will opt for nuclear power. This will make it even more urgent to tighten global nuclear security to prevent the technology being used to make weapons of mass destruction.
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) reckons that another 25 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Latin America are either considering or have already decided to make nuclear energy part of their power generation systems.
Nonetheless, the WNA says that over 80 per cent of the expansion this century is likely to be in major economies already using nuclear power.
By the end of 2006, three big Western-Japanese alliances had formed to dominate the world's reactor supply market. They included Areva of France with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and the United States' General Electric (GE) with
Japan's Hitachi. Meanwhile, Westinghouse of the US had become a 77 per cent subsidiary of Japan's Toshiba.
Until very recently, only these three groups and a small number of other firms, among them Atomic Energy of Canada, Russia's AtomStroyExport, and Chinese state-owned companies, had shown they had the technical knowledge and project management experience to export nuclear power plants.
A new member joined the club last month when a consortium of mainly South Korean companies headed by Korea Electric Power Corp (Kepco) beat an Areva-led group and GE-Hitachi to win a contract worth about US$20billion (S$28billion) to build four advanced reactors in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The first of the 1,400MW reactors is due to start generating electricity in 2017, with the others following by 2020.
The consortium also expects to earn another US$20billion by jointly running the reactors for 60 years. Since the UAE has said it plans to standardise on one technology, South Korea is hoping to secure follow-on orders.
Faced with limited resources and fast growing demand for energy, South Korea imported Westinghouse System-80 pressurised water reactors in the late 1970s. The contract included terms that allowed Kepco to develop its own versions of the reactor, such as the advanced model now being supplied to the UAE.
South Korea plans to become self-sufficient in nuclear reactor technology by 2012 and export 80 power reactors, worth US$400billion, by 2030.
This would make it the world's third or fourth largest nuclear reactor supplier, with a 20 per cent share of the global market.
An expert report to South Korean President Lee Myung Bak earlier this month set out the rationale for developing the nuclear industry as a major export arm.
'Nuclear power-related business will be the most profitable market after automobiles, semiconductors and shipbuilding,' the report said.
Given the success that South Korea has had in exporting its products from all three of these sectors, rival nuclear vendors would be well advised to take the new Korean challenge seriously.
The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
