Michael Richardson, for the Straits Times 4 Jan 10;
IS 2010 the start of a new era in road transport as electricity increasingly takes over from petrol and diesel as the source of power for cars and other vehicles, reducing global warming emissions and dependence on foreign oil?
Some signs are certainly promising in established motor vehicle markets in the United States and Europe, as well as in Asia, where demand for cars is growing fastest.
If small, low-cost electric vehicles catch on in Asia, their success is likely to be assured and global demand for oil in future will be less than forecast.
General Motors (GM) of the US and India's Reva Electric will begin joint production of a 'highly affordable' battery-powered car in India in the second half of this year, while China is actively promoting production of both electricity-powered vehicles and the batteries that store their on-board electricity.
Such vehicles range from all-electric models to the more widely available hybrids like those from Japanese manufacturers Toyota and Honda that use rechargeable battery power and petrol engines.
Nearly all the major carmakers are now committed to producing hybrid or all-electric cars, or both. They are betting that cheap oil is a thing of the past, and that governments will raise taxes on fossil fuels and curb carbon emissions, despite the recent failure of the Copenhagen climate change negotiations.
GM is due to launch its Chevrolet Volt in the US and Europe later this year. The Volt, to be sold in Europe as the Ampera, is a new hybrid design in which the wheels are driven only by the electric motor. A petrol engine generates more electricity to extend the car's range if needed, but the batteries are mainly recharged by plugging into an electric power source.
France's PSA Peugeot Citroen says it will be the first carmaker to market a full range of electric vehicles in Europe, from small city runarounds to more spacious saloons, when it starts selling the cars this year. Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are developing luxury battery-powered models.
The keenest advocate of all-electric cars, however, is Japan's second biggest carmaker, Nissan, and its French parent, Renault. They are making a huge investment in a family of four electric models to be launched next year and in 2012. They are also investing heavily in the production of batteries for the cars.
Singapore is launching its three-year, $20 million programme this year to collaborate with electric car manufacturers, including Renault-Nissan and Mitsubishi, to test their vehicles in an urban environment. It is also working with Keppel Energy to develop charging stations and other infrastructure to support electric cars on city commutes and other local travel. Similar test-bedding is under way in Israel and Denmark.
Attending the Tokyo Motor Show in October last year, Mr Carlos Ghosn, the head of Renault-Nissan, said the electric car is 'no longer a daydream - the technology allows it now'. He predicted that pure-electric vehicles could account for 10 per cent of all new car purchases by 2020 - by far the most ambitious forecast in the industry.
By contrast, US research firm CSM Worldwide estimates that automakers around the world will build only 100,000 electric cars in 2015, accounting for about 0.1 per cent of total production.
The main barriers to widespread adoption of electric cars are high cost, limited range and lack of infrastructure. Most electric cars can be driven for no more than about 160km before their batteries have to be recharged or swopped for a full battery. In the tropics, this range may be cut by up to 20 per cent when driving with air-conditioning.
However, research shows that most car owners in the US, Europe and Japan drive less than 100km a day, making electric vehicles a practical proposition, except on long journeys.
The cost premium of green driving is a bigger obstacle. Mitsubishi's i-MiEV model that will be tested in Singapore retails for about $160,000, around $100,000 more than the petrol version. The early electric models will remain expensive because of their relatively small sales volumes and high battery costs.
New lithium-ion batteries, the technology expected to underpin the next wave of hybrid and electric vehicles, provide the same power at half the weight of the current standard nickel-metal hydride batteries. However, lithium batteries cost three to four times as much as nickel ones, and the price of the older technology is continuing to drop fast.
Britain, France and the US are offering substantial tax rebates to encourage more people to buy plug-in hybrid and electric cars. Renault-Nissan is considering leasing lithium batteries to reduce the upfront cost to buyers of its electric cars.
In China, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Denmark and the US, governments and the private sector are teaming up to work out the best ways of establishing networks of rapid recharging or battery-swopping stations.
Electric power is promising a revolution in road transport. But there will be consumer resistance as long as inconvenience and added costs remain significant factors.
The writer is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
