Reuters 25 Jan 10;
(Reuters) - The Copenhagen climate accord lays out a broad path for progress in the fight against climate change and the United Nations hopes it will underpin ongoing negotiations to create a tougher, and legally binding, global treaty.
But the accord did not set out clear emissions reductions by 2020 or by mid-century, is not legally binding, made little mention of the existing Kyoto Protocol and has led to confusion on how nations can proceed.
Following are some likely next steps and concerns in global efforts to prevent dangerous climate change such as rising seas and more intense droughts, floods and snow storms.
THE DEADLINE - JAN 31
Nations that support the accord are meant to submit their 2020 greenhouse gas emission reduction steps to the United Nations by the end of this month for inclusion in the document.
Rich nations are meant to submit pledges for emissions cuts and developing nations can indicate what voluntary steps they will make, such as targets to cut carbon intensity or to ramp up renewable energy production.
The United Nations, though, expects the deadline to be flexible to give developing nations more time. Some analysts also expect the numbers to be provisional until the United States and other rich nations agree to tougher targets to slash emissions.
WHO SUPPORTS THE ACCORD?
The accord was not formally adopted in Copenhagen because of objections from several countries. While there seems to be broad global agreement, the exact number of supporting nations is unclear. The United Nations has asked countries to formally state if they wish to be associated with the accord by Jan 31.
WAITING FOR WASHINGTON
Many nations say the United States is the linchpin for global climate talks. Washington is under pressure to bring more to the bargaining table but its inability to offer a firm emissions reduction target or strong domestic action to cut carbon pollution is forcing some nations to hold back.
The Obama administration is trying to get its climate bill through the Senate but this is looking increasingly unlikely this year because of lack of support and other issues crowding his agenda, such as health care and looming mid-term elections.
CLIMATE CASH
The accord offers $30 billion in climate aid for poorer nations between 2010-12 and up to $100 billion by 2020. The United Nations hopes this will start to be paid out soon through existing institutions, such as the Global Environment Facility.
SO WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
The next major U.N. talks are May 31-June 11 in Bonn and then Mexico City, Nov 29-Dec 10. The United Nations wants negotiations to continue on the existing twin tracks, one under the Kyoto Protocol and a broader track that includes the United States, which never ratified Kyoto.
It doesn't want the accord to become a third track outside the world body, though some countries, such as the United States and France, feel a smaller group of nations, such as the G20, can be crucial in breaking deadlocks.
The BASIC group comprising China, India, Brazil and South Africa is also emerging as an alternative climate forum. The group met at the weekend and pledged to meet the Jan 31 deadline to submit their action plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
ONE TREATY OR TWO?
The ultimate aim of the U.N. talks is for all nations to sign a tougher, legally binding pact in which rich nations commit to bigger emissions cuts after Kyoto's first phase ends in 2012. Developing countries would commit to steps to brake the pace of their emissions growth.
Agreement on this might happen in Mexico or later.
The United Nations says the solution could be an extension of the Kyoto Protocol into a second phase from 2013 as many developing nations demand. There could also be a second treaty capturing the United States and rules that independently monitor nations' steps to curb emissions.
(Writing by David Fogarty; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
