Krittivas Mukherjee, PlanetArk 19 Jan 10;
NEW DELHI - The U.N. panel of climate scientists said Monday it was reviewing a report containing a little-known projection that Himalayan glaciers might vanish by 2035, a finding trenchantly criticized by the Indian government.
The 2007 U.N. panel report says global warming could cause the Himalaya's thousands of glaciers to vanish by 2035 if current warming rates continue.
"We are looking into the issue of the Himalayan glaciers, and will take a position on it in the next two or three days," Rajendra Pachauri, head of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told Reuters in an e-mail.
Other experts have said the 10 major Asian rivers the glaciers feed could go dry in the next five decades.
Hundreds of millions of people in India, Pakistan and China would be affected.
Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh Monday questioned the findings of the 2007 report.
"They are indeed receding and the rate is cause for great concern, Ramesh said of the glaciers, but he told reporters the 2035 forecast was "not based on an iota of scientific evidence."
Other experts have said the 2035 projection was not based on peer-reviewed science. In London, The Times newspaper said the Indian scientist who first made the Himalayan thaw projection in 1999 now acknowledged it was "speculation."
Flaws in IPCC reports can be damaging since the findings are a guide for government policy. The IPCC's core finding in 2007 was that it was more than 90 percent sure that mankind is the main cause of global warming, mainly by using fossil fuels.
Ramesh said he had been accused of "voodoo science" in questioning the IPCC findings about the Himalayas in the past.
The IPCC's 2007 report said: "Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate."
However, the report also said of the glaciers: "Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 sq km (193,000 to 38,600 sq miles) by the year 2035."
At the Copenhagen climate summit last month, Pachauri, an Indian citizen, strongly defended the IPCC's core findings after a scandal over emails hacked from the University of East Anglia in England.
In the email scandal, climate change skeptics accused researchers of colluding to suppress others' data.
Ramesh had said in November that a paper commissioned by the Indian government had found no conclusive evidence to link the retreat of Himalayan glaciers to climate change.
He said many of India's 9,500 Himalayan glaciers are shrinking, but some are shrinking at a slower rate or even increasing.
(Editing by Paul Tait)
In new row, UN climate body to probe Himalayan glacier forecast
Marlowe Hood Yahoo News 19 Jan 10;
PARIS (AFP) – The UN's panel of climate scientists said on Monday it would probe claims its doomsday prediction for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers was wrong as an expert said he had warned of the mistake.
The Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is already under attack over hacked email exchanges which skeptics say reflected attempts to skew the evidence for global warming.
The new controversy focusses on a reference in the IPCC's landmark Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 that said the probability of glaciers in the Himalayas "disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high."
At the weekend, Britain's Sunday Times newspaper reported that this reference came from the green campaign group WWF, which in turn took it from an interview given by an Indian glaciologist to New Scientist magazine in 1999.
There is no evidence that the claim was published in a peer-reviewed journal, a cornerstone of scientific credibility, it said.
"We are looking into the issue of the Himalayan glaciers, and will take a position on it in the next two or three days," the IPCC's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, said in an email to AFP.
In an interview with AFP, a leading glaciologist who contributed to the Fourth Assessment Report described the mistake as huge and said he had notified his colleagues of it in late 2006, months before publication.
Loss of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 would take two or three times the highest expected rate of global warming, said Georg Kaser of the Geography Institute at Austria's University of Innsbruck.
"This number is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of any order of magnitude. It is as wrong as can be wrong.
"To get this outcome, you would have to increase the ablation [ice loss] by 20 fold. You would have to raise temperatures by at least 12 degrees" Celsius, or 21.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
"It is so wrong that it is not even worth discussing... I pointed it out."
Asked why his warning had not been heeded, Kaser pointed to "a kind of amateurism" among experts from the region who were in charge of the chapter on climate impacts, where the reference appeared.
"They might have been good hydrologists or botanists, but they were without any knowledge in glaciology," he said.
The Fourth Assessment Report said that the evidence for global warming was now "unequivocal," that the chief source for it was man-made and that there were already signs of climate change, of which glacial melt was one.
The massive publication had the effect of a political thunderclap, triggering promises to curb greenhouse gases that had stoked the problem.
Kaser said the core evidence of the Fourth Assessment Report remained incontrovertible.
"I am careful in saying this, because immediately people will again engage in IPCC bashing, which would be wrong," he said.
But he acknowledged that the process of peer review, scrutiny and challenge which underpin the IPCC's reputation had "entirely failed" when it came specifically to the 2035 figure.
The 2035 reference appeared in the second volume of the Fourth Assessment Report, a tome published in April 2007 that focussed on the impacts of climate change, especially on human communities.
Part of the problem, said Kaser, was "everyone was focussed" on the first volume, published in February 2007, which detailed the physical science for climate change.
Work on this volume was "much more attractive to the community" of glaciologists, and they had failed to pick up on the mistake that appeared in the second, he said.
The question of glacial melt is a vital one for South Asia, as it touches on flooding or water stress with the potential to affect hundreds of millions of lives.
Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh has repeatedly challenged the IPCC's claims.
The IPCC came under ferocious attack from climate skeptics last month ahead of the UN conference in Copenhagen.
Emails from scientists at Britain's University of East Anglia, a top centre for climate research, were leaked and seized upon as evidence that experts twisted data in order to dramatise global warming.
Some of the thousands of messages expressed frustration at the scientists' inability to explain what they described as a temporary slowdown in warming. Pachauri has vowed to investigate the affair.
