MIT analysis shows pledges submitted to the UN falls short of reduction targets by at least 11bn tonnes of CO2
John Vidal, guardian.co.uk 12 Feb 10;
The pledges made by governments resulting from the Copenhagen climate conference are nowhere near enough to hold global temperatures to the summit's agreed goal of no more than a 2C rise, researchers have calculated. The results, which are the most rigorous analyses yet made of pledges submitted to the UN last month, will increase pressure on rich countries to make far deeper cuts in negotiations over the next year.
Researchers from the Sustainability Institute, the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Ventana Systems in the US conclude that emissions reduction pledges would allow global mean temperature to increase approximately 3.9C, a level that could see global warming run out of control. "Under the current proposals, global emissions of greenhouse gases would increase 0.8C a year between now and 2020, , warned the joint report. It concluded that to reach the Copenhagen accord's goal of no more than a 2C rise, global emissions must peak within the next decade and fall to at least 50% below 1990 levels by 2050, which would require emissions cuts of 3% annually after 2020.
"A new degree of collective ambition and cooperation will be required before the world sees a climate agreement consistent with limited warming to even 2C let alone the 1.5C goal named by a growing number of governments and civil society groups," said Elizabeth Sawin of Sustainability Institute in Hartland, Vermont, referring to a push at Copenhagen by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) and 48 developing nations for a deal that limits temperature rises to 1.5C.
"The situation is serious. An increase of temperature of more than 1C above pre-industrial levels would result in the disappearance of our glaciers in the Andes, and the flooding of various islands and coastal zones," said Bolivian foreign minister minister, David Choquehuanca, responding to the US study. Scientists are agreed that an overall rise of 2C in world temperatures would be serious for food production, species loss and freshwater supplies. But anything over 3C would lead to the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, crippling water shortages across South America and Australia and the near-extinction of tropical coral reefs, they have said.
Earlier this week, teams of European researchers from Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute in Germany concluded that the pledges made so far if acted upon would lead to a global temperature rising "over" 3C.
The low end of the reduction proposals made by governments at Copenhagen would deliver a reduction of only 2 billion tonnes by 2020, and the best would be nine billion tonnes. However, at least 13-17 billion tonnes of reductions are needed to have more than an even chance of limiting warming to 2C.They said that only two out of 10 developed countries' reduction targets submitted to the Copenhagen accord qualify as "sufficient" to keep global temperature rise below 2C.
In the lead, said the European researchers, were the Maldives and Costa Rica, which have proposed to become "climate-neutral" by around 2020. Also at the ambitious end of the scale are Norway, Japan and Brazil, which are proposing to reduce their emissions significantly.
A third analysis of the pledges of only developed countries, undertaken by the US-based World Resources Institute, concluded that they fall "far short of the range of 25-40% emission reductions [by 2020] that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is needed to stabilise concentrations of CO2 equivalent at 450 parts per million ppm" Climate campaigners such as Bill McKibben have been pushing for a limit of 350 ppm.
Copenhagen response 'is pathetic'
BBC News 10 Feb 10;
Industrialised nations have set "pathetic" targets to reduce carbon emissions, says one of India's senior negotiators at the Copenhagen summit.
One of the summit's requirements was for countries to spell out by 31 January how they would cut emissions.
But industrialised nations had failed to set the "truly ambitious" targets needed, Chandrashekhar Dasgupta said.
Britain's Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said the commitments made in Copenhagen were an important step forward.
Fifty-five countries met the deadline set in the Copenhagen Accord to spell out their plans to cut carbon emissions, although some had already announced their targets ahead of the December climate change summit.
Australia, for example, said it would cut emissions by 5% of its 2000 levels. Others like Japan and New Zealand said their commitments were dependent on a global deal.
'Lectured and hectored'
But Mr Dasgupta told The Report programme on BBC Radio 4: "We need truly ambitious emission reduction commitments from industrialised countries.
"If you see figures that industrialised countries have submitted in response to the Copenhagen Accord, these are truly pathetic."
He added: "The European Union had envisaged a reduction of from 25% to 30% from developed countries, they're nowhere near this."
Mr Dasgupta said developing countries were calling for industrialised nations to adopt a 40% target across a 30-year period.
He said developing nations had found themselves "lectured and hectored" by industrialised countries at the summit.
"We can do so much consistent with maintaining our development priorities. Beyond this, it is going to cost tens of billions of dollars," he added.
"If you can help out with this, that is well and good, we can do more - but otherwise we cannot pick up the tab, it is simply too heavy."
'Important step'
However, Britain's Mr Miliband said the commitments made by countries would produce progress.
"The upper end of the commitments will take us to a peaking of global emissions by about 2020, maybe a bit later," he said.
He said ambitious targets were needed, but added: "I do think the commitments made in the accord are an important step forward and I don't think they should be dismissed.
"The key is to get developed countries to drive up to the upper end of their commitments because that is what the world needs."
