Sunanda Creagh, PlanetArk 24 Feb 10;
NUSA DUA, Indonesia - Emission cuts pledges made by 60 countries will not be enough to keep the average global temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius or less, modeling released on Tuesday by the United Nations says.
Scientists say temperatures should be limited to a rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial times if devastating climate change is to be avoided.
Yearly greenhouse gas emissions should not be more than 40 and 48.3 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2020 and should peak between 2015 and 2021, according to new modeling released on Tuesday by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Keeping within that range and cutting global emissions by between 48 percent and 72 percent between 2020 and 2050 will give the planet a "medium" or 50-50 chance of staying within the 2 degree limit, said the report, which was based on modeling by nine research centres.
However, the same study found that the world is likely to go over those targets. The pledges were made by nations that signed up to the Copenhagen Accord.
"The expected emissions for 2020 range between 48.8 to 51.2 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent, based on whether high or low pledges will be fulfilled," the report said.
In other words, even in a best-case scenario where all countries implement their promised cuts, the total amount of emissions produced would still be between 0.5 and 8.8 gigatonnes over what scientists see as tolerable.
Greenhouse gas levels are rising, particularly for carbon dioxide, because more is remaining in the atmosphere than natural processes can deal with.
Carbon dioxide is naturally taken up and released by plants and the oceans but mankind's burning of fossil fuels such as coal for power and destruction of forests means the planet's annual "carbon budget" is being exceeded.
OTHER OPTIONS
UNEP's executive director Achim Steiner said the bleak prediction should motivate countries to make more ambitious cuts.
"The message is not to sit back and resign and say we will never make it," he told reporters in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian island of Bali, which is hosting a major U.N. environment meeting.
"But it's not enough at the moment and there are other options that can be mobilised."
Steiner said one such option was more investment in a scheme called reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD), in which poor countries are paid to preserve and enhance their forests.
A state of the environment assessment released by UNEP on Tuesday, the UNEP Year Book 2010, also advocated more investment in REDD.
"It has been estimated that putting $22 billion to $29 billion into REDD would cut global deforestation by 25 percent by 2015," the report said.
Forests soak up large amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide. Cutting them down and burning the remains releases vast amounts of the gas, exacerbating global warming, scientists say.
REDD is not yet part of a broader climate pact that the U.N. hopes to seal by the end of year at major climate talks in Mexico.
Steiner told reporters a day earlier he expected talks this year to be a tough slog. The Copenhagen climate summit last December ended with a political accord that was not formally adopted and no clarity on the shape of a new climate pact to succeed the current Kyoto Protocol.
"A deal has become more difficult than in Copenhagen. Let's be very frank. The world has moved away, rather than closer, to a deal," he told reporters. "The politics of international negotiation and the economics, the momentum that built up toward Copenhagen will not be there for Mexico.
(Editing by David Fogarty)
UN warns greenhouse gas cuts 'not enough' to curb warming
Yahoo News 24 Feb 10;
NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AFP) – Countries will have to make far greater cuts in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to limit the rise in global temperatures to two degrees Celsius or less, the UN has warned.
Commitments made since December's Copenhagen climate conference have been insufficient, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in a report at its annual meeting on the Indonesian island of Bali.
"No one should assume that the pledges will be enough," UNEP director Adrian Steiner said.
"Countries will have to be far more ambitious in cutting greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to curb a rise in global temperature."
The Copenhagen summit struck a last-minute compromise that set a goal of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and pledged a total of nearly 30 billion dollars in aid to poor countries by 2012.
But it did not spell out the means for achieving the warming limits, and the emissions pledges were only voluntary.
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono warned the ministers and officials gathered on Bali that the clock was ticking on efforts to forge a global treaty on climate change to succeed the Kyoto Protocol.
"We have to conclude the climate change negotiations in Mexico at the end of the year," Yudhoyono noted at the opening session on Wednesday. "I think it is not too late."
Other environment ministers and climate officials echoed his call although the United States, which is the world's second biggest polluter after China, did not send any ministers to Bali.
International climate negotiators are due to meet on April 9 in Bonn to draw up a programme for the rest of the year looking towards the ministerial-level meeting opening on November 29 in Cancun, Mexico.
Green groups and most scientists say the document adopted in Copenhagen, a limited pact made after China angrily ruled out binding commitments, falls far short of what is necessary to curtail global warming.
The European Union is pledging to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by 2020, compared to 1990 levels, if other major powers do the same. But cuts outlined by the United States and China fall well short of that.
