Michael Perry, PlanetArk 16 Mar 10;
Australia's top scientists on Monday released a "State of the Climate" report at a time of growing scepticism over climate change as a result of revelations of errors in some global scientific reports.
The scientists said their monitoring and research of the world's driest inhabited continent for 100 years "clearly demonstrate that climate change is real."
"We are seeing significant evidence of a changing climate. We are warming in every part of the country during every season and as each decade goes by, the records are being broken," said Megan Clark, head of Australia's state-backed Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO).
The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledged in January its 2007 report had exaggerated the pace of Himalayan glaciers melting, and last month said the report also had overstated how much of the Netherlands is below sea level.
The 2007 report is based on the work of thousands of scientists and is the main policy guide for governments looking to act on climate change. Skeptics have leapt on the errors, saying they undermine the science of climate change but the IPCC, which has announced a review, has defended its work.
The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology report said international research showed it is extremely unlikely that global warming could be explained by natural causes alone.
"There is greater than 90 percent certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century," said the report.
"Evidence of human influence has been detected in ocean warming, sea-level rise, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns," said the report.
Australia, a major grains and meat producer, battled the worst drought in 100 years for most of the past decade, damaging its farm output, but in recent years the commodities sector has been recovering due to good rainfall.
The government estimated farm output for 2008/09 at A$42 billion ($38.4 billion) out of total Australian gross domestic product of A$1.2 trillion.
Studies show that rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns and greater extremes of droughts and floods could cost Australia's economy dearly. A government report last November said residential buildings worth up to A$63 billion could be inundated if seas rise by 1.1 meters (3.5 feet) this century.
HEATING UP
Since 1960, the mean temperature in Australia has increased by about 0.7 degrees Celsius, but some areas of the country had warmed by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years, the report said.
Australia's warmest decade on record is 2000 to 2009.
While total rainfall in Australia had been relatively stable, the geographic distribution changed significantly over the past 50 years, with rainfall decreasing in southwest and southeast Australia, the major population areas.
Sea levels around the island continent since 1993 have risen 7-10mm per year in the north and west and 1.5 to 3mm in the south and east, said the report.
From 1870 to 2007, the global average sea level rose by close to 200mm (8 inches), sea levels rose at an average of 1.7mm a year in the 20th century and about 3mm per year from 1993-2009, it said.
Sea surface temperatures around Australia have increased by about 0.4 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years.
The scientists said global carbon dioxide concentration in 2009 of 386 parts per million (ppm) was much higher than the natural range of 170 to 300 ppm that existed in the atmosphere for the past 800,000 years and possibly 20 million years.
The scientists said that based on their monitoring of the nation's climate for 100 years, Australian average temperatures are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.
(Editing by David Fogarty)
Australia '0.7 degrees warmer over past 50 years'
Yahoo News 15 Mar 10;
SYDNEY (AFP) – Australia's top science body said on Monday temperatures had risen about 0.7 degrees Celsius (0.44 Fahrenheit) in the last 50 years, describing the finding as "significant evidence" of climate change.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) head Megan Clark said warming had occurred across the country and during all seasons, with the last decade the hottest on record.
"We are seeing significant evidence of a changing climate," she told ABC public radio.
"If we just take our temperature, all of Australia has experienced warming over the last 50 years. We are warming in every part of the country during every season and as each decade goes by, the records are being broken.
"We are also seeing fewer cold days so we are seeing some very significant long-term trends in Australia's climate."
The joint CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology report follows renewed debate over climate change after flaws were found in evidence from a key UN panel before and after December's world environmental summit in Copenhagen.
"There is a thirst for good quality climate science and our two organisations are proud to publish this," said Greg Ayers, the Bureau of Meteorology's director.
The bureau has been observing Australia's weather for 100 years, and CSIRO has been conducting atmospheric and marine research for more than 60 years.
Their "State of The Climate" report shows sea levels rising seven-10 millimetres (0.3 to 0.4 inches) a year around Australia's north and west, while rainfall is sharply higher in some regions and lower in others.
"We know two things. We know that our CO2 has never risen so quickly. We are now starting to see CO2 and methane in the atmosphere at levels that we just haven't seen for the past 800,000 years, possibly even 20 million years," Clark said.
"We also know that that rapid increase that we've been measuring was at the same time that we saw the industrial revolution so it is very likely that these two are connected."
Climate change is likely to be a major issue in elections due this year in Australia, the world's top per capita carbon polluter, after the government's flagship emissions trading laws were defeated twice by the Senate last year.
Weather change happening now
CSIRO, Science Alert 15 Mar 10;
In a joint CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology statement released today, Australia’s two lead climate science agencies have produced a snapshot of the state of the climate to update Australians about how their climate has changed and what it means.
Changes observed include:
Highly variable rainfall across the country, with substantial increases in rainfall in northern and central parts of Australia, as well as significant decreases across much of southern and eastern Australia.
Rapidly rising sea levels from 1993 to 2009, with levels around Australia rising, between 1.5cm and 3cm per decade in Australia’s south and east and between 7cm and 9cm in the country’s north.
About half of the observed reduction in winter rainfall in south-west Western Australia can be explained by higher greenhouse gas levels.
Bureau of Meteorology Director Dr Greg Ayers said the observed changes showed climate change was real.
“Australia holds one of the best national climate records in the world,” Dr Ayers said.
“The Bureau’s been responsible for keeping that record for more than a hundred years and it’s there for anyone and everyone to see, use and analyse.”
CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Megan Clark said the Bureau data underpinned a great deal of CSIRO research.
“Understanding options for mitigation and adaptation are important research priorities for us,” Dr Clark said.
“With this snapshot, Australians will be better prepared for the next step of planning for how to adapt to a changing climate and how to also take action to reduce the impacts of climate change. CSIRO has been working with industry and in sectors of the economy such as agriculture to prepare for and implement necessary changes.”
Dr Ayers said the snapshot presented the facts in an accessible format.
“There is a thirst for good quality climate science and our two organisations are proud to publish this,” he said.
