Kerry Sheridan Yahoo News 19 Jan 11;
WASHINGTON (AFP) – A growing world population combined with the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a global food shortage in the next 10 years, but the news isn't all bad for some countries.
The United States, China, Ethiopia and parts of northern Europe are among the select few that are expected to be able to grow more crops as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall, according to a study out Tuesday.
However, those gains will not be enough to stave off an increase in world starvation and price spikes for food as a result of a shortfall in three of the four main cereal crops, it said.
The forecast is based on UN figures about climate change released in 2007, and projects the impact of temperature changes that will leave the planet at least 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 Fahrenheit) warmer by 2020.
"The analysis is based on the conclusions of the 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report," said lead author Liliana Hisas of the Universal Ecological Fund, a non-profit group.
"Our other guiding principles were using the business-as-usual path the world is currently following, and assess the impacts of climate change with a short-term target of one decade."
A population boom will leave the world with an additional 890 million people in 2020, for a total of 7.8 billion, up from the current level of 6.9 billion, the study said.
And across-the-board deficits in wheat, rice and maize means there will not be enough to feed all those extra mouths.
The result will be more prevalent hunger -- one in five people going hungry, up from the current rate of one in seven -- and food price spikes of up to 20 percent, according to the study.
"At least every other newborn in Africa; one in every four newborns in Asia; and one in every seven newborns in Latin America and the Caribbean would be sentenced to undernourishment and malnutrition," it added.
On the whole, Africa is expected to be the hardest hit. Due to hotter, drier temperatures, nearly two thirds of arable land on the continent could be lost by 2025, and maize growing could die out completely in some areas.
Grape and olive growing in Mediterranean countries like Italy, Spain and France will suffer due to mounting dryness, as will the vineyards of California -- a 3.9-billion-dollar industry.
Elsewhere in the United States, the lead global producer of maize and soybean, wheat crops are forecast to grow five to 20 percent, while corn crops could falter slightly.
The US and Canada combine to produce 13 percent of the world's wheat, 38 percent of maize and 36 percent of soybeans.
Northern Europe could see wheat yields climb between three and four percent.
Meanwhile, the vast continent of Asia will see drastically different impacts in crop growth and rainfall.
India, the second largest world producer of rice and wheat, could see yields fall 30 percent, the study said.
But not so for China, the world's biggest producer of wheat and rice, which is "expected to increase its crop yields up to 20 percent."
The effects of climate change are expected to be harsher for India because of its tropical climate, as opposed to China, which lies in the temperate zone. Growers in Bangladesh and Pakistan could also expect to see declines.
Ethiopia was singled out in Africa as a country that could benefit because higher temperatures could combine with rainfall changes to boost the growth of its key crop, coffee. Ethiopia is the world's sixth largest coffee producer.
The United States and Canada are among the countries expected to grow more of every main cereal group, but still fall short of an expanding population's needs.
Soybean production is forecast to result in a five percent surplus, but the other three will see deficits across the world due to rising demand: a 14 percent shortfall in wheat, 11 percent for rice and nine percent for maize.
The study urged nations to undertake plans to adjust crop timing and move livestock to areas where water availability is improved.
Some dietary habits may have to shift, such as consuming more potatoes, beans and lentils instead of cereal grains and animal proteins.
But the primary change it recommended was reducing harmful pollutants in the atmosphere, or greenhouse gases (GHG).
"Reducing GHG emissions is the first and most important step. Efforts so far have been numerous, but unsuccessful," the study said.
