We should, like Hong Kong, have an official population projection
Letter from Ng Ya Ken Today Online 3 Jan 11;
THE Government has yet to announce any official population projection for the next few decades, although it has been using a 6.5 million population parameter for physical planning for the next 30 to 40 years. It has repeatedly said that the 6.5 million figure is not a target.
In contrast, Hong Kong's Census and Statistical Office frequently updates its population forecast, with the latest one made in July last year, showing that its 7 million population in 2009 would expand to 8.89 million by 2039.
Why does Hong Kong - with a fertility rate lower than ours - want to tell the world that its population will expand by 27 per cent over the next 30 years?
One of the purposes is to convince the world that it has an expanding workforce to meet the need of economic growth for the next three decades - as a tool for boosting business confidence and attracting foreign investments in a territory where local the population is declining.
It also shows that the Hong Kong authorities are not avoiding the hard questions on immigration issues, since future population growth will have to rely solely on immigration. It also serves as a reminder to the locals to face up to the unavoidable reality of having to work and live with more immigrants in future years.
The Hong Kong release, which shows forecasts at five-year intervals till 2039, can be used for not only urban planning but also for planning in education, health and other social services.
Businesses can also use it to plan their investments, especially those that depend on the mass market or take longer to fully reap the profits.
Should we not do the same as Hong Kong, so that a common population forecast and its accompanying assumptions can be used for planning purposes among the various ministries in the Government?
In projecting long-term population figures, we are forced to take a harder look at factors and possible scenarios affecting not only population growth but also economic growth and other aspects of our future.
Population projection can be a very profound, deep-thinking and forward-looking process, from which we as a nation can learn many valuable things.
The Government should not be unduly concerned about how the people will react to the projection as long as it is conducted with the nation's best interests being placed as the ultimate goal.
