Tarra Quismundo Philippine Daily Inquirer 4 Feb 11;
MANILA, Philippines — If the world worries about monster storms, floods and landslides, what the eyes don't usually see should concern them as much.
Top marine scientists from around the country have found indications of the "creeping effects" of climate change on marine life—a study aimed at shifting focus from changes in weather phenomena on land to those happening underwater.
Tagged ICE CREAM (Integrated Coastal Enhancement: Climate Research, Enhancement and Adaptive Management), the government-funded project has found rising water temperatures, coral bleaching and coastal erosion in several of its 28 project sites dotting the Philippine coastline.
The team shared its initial findings to the INQUIRER as it marked the start of its third year. The P98-million project, funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DoST), the World Wildlife Fund and Conservation International involves more than a dozen marine science experts from across the country and separate staff at project sites.
“Something that is not visible is much more difficult to understand. It (the sea) is much more prone to being dismissed as being “no, there's still a lot of fish,” said Wilfredo Campos, a marine biologist from the University of the Philippines-Visayas.
“You don't really see what's happening. You see that there are mudslides, you see what's happening in the forest, but at sea, you really don't know what's happening. You look at the sea and feel that it (resources) is still finite, when actually, it's not,” Campos told the INQUIRER on Thursday.
Much debate still surrounds climate change, its causes and effects, but Porfirio Aliño, marine biologist from the UP Marine Science Institute, would rather look the at the bottomline.
“The climate is always changing, how you see it in relation to whether it's going to be more frequent or accelerated. But the bottomline is how do we respond to it, given that if we don't do anything, it will become accelerated,” he said.
“One question is that, climate has changed in evolutionary time. But the point is, during evolutionary time, there were no people yet. Now, climate change has a big effect on people,” he said.
Based on initial findings, the DoST climate change project found a 3-percent rise in shallow water temperature off Lian, Batangas in April to May of last year—an increase not observed even in intense summers.
“By May, it spiked to 31 degrees Celsius, while the normal range is 27 degrees to 29 degrees. For water, that's very high,” said Maricar Samson, an environmental scientist from the De La Salle University.
Such warm waters caused coral bleaching, which endangered an ecosystem that could buffer vulnerable coastlines from storm surges, the team said.
“If you take care of the reef, it will be able to compensate with sea level rise. But if of course it is in poor condition, it will not be able to buffer, for example, the storm surge. The increase in sea level will reach the shore,” he said.
Such rate of temperature rise, if observed every 5 years, would leave only 1 percent of the current coral reef population, Samson said. The same rise, if seen every 10 years, would leave only 11 percent.
In Botolan, Zambales, scientists found out that the coastline has receded significantly from 1977 to 2003.
“This has a big impact on the coast . Now, we're trying to do some projections in some parts of the Philippines on what will happen on their coastal stability,” Samson said.
Another study under ICE CREAM found a decrease in the productivity of fish species in coastal areas by roughly 20 percent, a “very fast rate” observed within two decades said Aliño.
“If we don't take care of our coral reefs, mangroves, sea grass and other habitats, obviously, the decline will be fast, we cannot cope with climate change. The other thing is, we are not as conscious about it unfortunately,” he said, adding that waters surrounding the archipelago were almost seven times bigger than its land area.
The team hopes to use data to influence policy-makers and stakeholders at the local and national levels: local government units could draft ordinances for better coastal protection while communities could practice more responsible use of marine resources.
“In the absence of scientists on the ground, the program hopes to give people tools where people can formulate their own [climate-change adaptation programs],” Samson said.
“These are site-specific. It's not possible that the whole Philippines will sink ... There will be different scenarios for [different parts of the] Philippines,” she added.
