Ronnie Lim Business Times 20 May 11;
THE use of coal for power generation - which has started on a small scale in Singapore - will 'dominate over gas by 2030 as the fuel of choice' in South-east Asia, says consultant Wood Mackenzie.
This arises from the region's need for substantial new power-generating capacity due to strong economic growth.
'A shift to coal in the region's fuel mix has already started with 35 gigawatts (GW) of committed coal-fired plant being developed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and even on a smaller scale in Singapore,' said Graham Tyler, the consultant's head of Southeast Asia Gas and Power Service.
'We think that while there are opportunities for gas suppliers, the trend towards more coal-fired power in South-east Asia will continue beyond 2020 despite arguments against it.'
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) in this region will grow 5.2 per cent annually over the next decade, compared to the global average of 3.5 per cent.
'As a result, power demand is expected to triple, representing a need for an additional 190 GW of generating capacity by 2030 . . . To meet this demand, there must be an increase in all fuel types, especially in coal and gas that can operate at baseload,' Wood Mackenzie said in a report.
In Singapore, phase one of China Huaneng-owned Tuas Power's $2 billion clean coal/biomass multi- utilities plant will start up in mid-2012, with the genco already considering embarking on phase two.
Electricity generation using coal is one of the fuel diversification options for the short and medium term suggested by the Economic Strategies Committee Report, while the government is also studying a coal gasification plant on Jurong Island to produce synthetic gas feedstock for petrochemical industries there.
Wood Mackenzie cites several factors for coal overtaking gas in this region.
One is that 'local gas reserves in decline will be insufficient to match existing production levels to feed the domestic markets', said Mr Tyler.
Reserve replacement is an issue in a number of mature production areas such as Java/Sumatra, the Gulf of Thailand and the Malay Basin.
'LNG (liquefied natural gas) is a potential solution but it is too costly for a region used to low and often subsidised gas prices,' Mr Tyler added.
Second, 'governments have expressed that reducing carbon emissions should not come at the expense of developing their economies'.
Besides, air pollution from coal-firing can be reduced with increased energy efficiency and technological improvements. The implementation cost will still make coal-fired plants more economical than LNG.
Finally, the region's power markets also benefit from their proximity to Indonesia, which has sufficient supply to meet domestic and Asia-Pacific demand growth up till 2030. This proximity provides the option of barging coal directly from Indonesian mines to regional markets.
Tuas Power's Indonesian suppliers - PT Bayan Resources and Samtan Co Ltd - will do just that, shipping in coal from Kalimantan to Jurong Island in covered barges.
