Joshua Ho Straits Times 14 Jul 11;
ALTHOUGH climate change has many negative effects, one positive outcome is the opening of new sea lanes in the Arctic. This can reduce transit times between destinations and has implications for Singapore.
Global warming may cause the ice-logged Arctic Ocean to be ice-free in the summer in the future. Estimates on when this will occur vary, ranging from as early as 2015 to beyond 2040.
When it does occur, the opening of Arctic routes will result in tremendous shipping benefits. Transiting the Northern Sea Route above Russia between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific would trim about 5,000 nautical miles - a week's sailing time - as compared with passing through the Suez Canal and Malacca Strait.
Financial savings associated with using this shorter route are estimated at US$600,000 (S$740,000) a vessel.
This may have an adverse impact on existing regional hub ports which have long been a nexus of east-west shipping, like Singapore.
But despite the threats that could be presented to a transit hub port like Singapore, there are also opportunities which could be capitalised on.
First, with the opening of the Arctic routes and the Arctic in general for oil exploration, there would be an increasing need for new offshore rigs, special-purpose offshore facilities and vessels which can withstand the cold and harsh Arctic environment. Singapore shipbuilders which have already attained world-class standards are in a position to capitalise on this new market.
Already, Keppel Offshore & Marine has signed an agreement with Lukoil to cooperate on building new platforms. It has already delivered two ice-breakers, two ice-class, anchor-handling tug supply vessels, two ice-class rescue vessels and an ice-class floating storage and offloading vessel in 2009, which were built according to the standards and rules of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping.
More Singapore shipbuilders can start to capitalise on this opportunity as Russia has released plans to build a total of 40 ice-resistant oil platforms, 14 offshore gas terminals, 55 ice-resistant tankers and storage tankers and 20 gas carriers in the future.
Second, new opportunities in research and development and shipbuilding will spring up for Singapore. The rather clean Arctic environment is very susceptible to marine pollution. This will prompt the Arctic Council to impose stringent marine environmental regulations for ships that transit the waterway to protect the marine environment.
This will require cleaner ships that have low carbon emissions and are more energy efficient. Some research and development could be undertaken. These may include improvements in hull design to reduce underwater resistance, special coatings to cut fuel use and the development of new ship engine technology fuelled by liquefied natural gas and hydrogen.
There is also a need for stronger and more powerful vessels to transit the Arctic as well as to extract natural resources which lie beneath the Arctic basin - this lends itself to further research and development. An example of such ships would be the double-acting ship, which is able to use both its stern and bow interchangeably while navigating through different ice conditions.
Another example would be the development of oblique ice-breakers with azimuth propulsion that could rotate and break ice sideways. As Singapore is home to world-class shipbuilders, these firms could capitalise on the development of new types of ships to meet the projected demand.
Finally, with the opening of the Northern Sea Route, there would be an increasing need for ports to service ships that ply the route as the existing ports have rather rudimentary infrastructure.
PSA International is one of the leading global port groups, with investments in 28 port projects in 16 countries across Asia, Europe and America. With its extensive experience in port development, it is well placed to develop ports along the Northern Sea Route in cooperation with partners in Russia.
While the opening up of the Arctic sea routes, in particular the Northern Sea Route, could have an adverse impact on Singapore as a hub port, it also presents opportunities in new shipbuilding, research and development into ship technology, as well as port development.
Firms operating in these areas should quickly capitalise on the new opportunities that arise as the Arctic routes may well open earlier than expected due to the unexpected and accelerated rates of global warming.
The writer is a senior fellow with the Maritime Security Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
