SINGAPORE'S population will start shrinking in 24 years if it shuts the door on immigrants.
This decline is inevitable even if the country produces significantly more babies, boosting its total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.85 - up from the current 1.15.
The grim picture is painted in a study the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) did from 2007 to early this year - one that will have ramifications for economic growth and social relations.
Spearheaded by demographer Yap Mui Teng, the study generated 48 scenarios of Singapore's future population based on different TFRs - the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime - and migration levels.
Among them is one that assumes the TFR will rise gradually to 1.85 by 2025 before stabilising at that level, and that net migration (the inflow of migrants minus those who leave) is zero.
The outcome is a decline in the resident population - comprising citizens and permanent residents (PRs) - from today's 3.77 million to 3.37 million in 2050.
At a briefing yesterday, IPS director Janadas Devan said: 'What it shows is there is no way you can keep your population from declining without migration.'
Dr Yap presented four scenarios, based on 'realistic' assumptions that reflect Singapore's conditions. In three of them, Singapore maintains a TFR of 1.24 - the rate in 2005 and one it could conceivably re-attain in the coming years.
The result shows if net migration is zero, the resident population will start declining in 14 years, reaching 3.03 million by 2050. But if Singapore lets in a net total of 60,000 migrants a year, the resident population will burgeon to 6.78 million by 2050.
At the peak of Singapore's liberalisation of immigration rules, in 2008, PR status was given to 79,200 foreigners. Last year, the Government tightened the inflow, accepting 29,265 new PRs.
In the final scenario, which mirrors most closely the current situation, it is assumed that Singapore accepts 30,000 net migrants a year. With this, there will be 4.89 million residents in 2050.
In making these projections, researchers assumed that people live longer; that immigrants are of working age; and that they reproduce at the same rate as the local population.
Another finding: The population will age across all four scenarios. Even though the absolute number of residents aged 15 to 64 increases when there is a net inflow of migrants, they will make up an ever-smaller proportion of the total population. This means there will be fewer working-age residents supporting the elderly.
Last year, 8.2 working-age residents supported one elderly resident (8.2:1). The ratio falls to 1.7:1 by 2050, if there are no migrants and the TFR stays at 1.24. Raising the TFR to 1.85 would have 'little effect' as the ratio goes up only marginally to 1.9:1, said the study.
'However, in-migration would ameliorate this decline,' it said, projecting that the ratio will be 2.7:1 if there were 30,000 net migrants a year, and 3.5:1 if there were 60,000.
Singapore, which has one of the lowest TFRs in the world, has struggled with population woes for the past 20 years. Despite incentives including cash bonuses and longer maternity leave, the TFR slumped to a historic low of 1.15 last year.
To mitigate against this, the Government eased immigration rules in 2006. This, however, led to resentment in the face of overcrowding and increased competition for jobs, housing and public transport - a sore point aired during the general election this year.
In view of the sentiment, the first scenario of zero migration may be politically attractive.
But bank economist Nizam Idris said a shrinking population - and workforce - will affect economic growth, especially as much of it is driven by the labour-intensive services sector.
The smaller workforce can be partially offset by improving productivity, he said. However, he noted, the scenerio's assumption of a 1.85 TFR in tandem is 'optimistic', and so Singapore should continue welcoming immigrants.
But, he stressed, the policy should be 'strict in allowing just highly skilled individuals to be PRs or citizens'.
Responding last night, the National Population and Talent Division said the Government 'continues to encourage marriage and parenthood and has committed significant resources to this end'.
'Nevertheless, as shown in IPS' projections, even if the TFR improves, immigrants are required to sustain the population,' it said. 'We will continue to manage the pace of immigration to ensure that immigrants are of good quality and can be well integrated into Singapore society.'
At a forum on Monday, former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew said 20,000 to 25,000 immigrants a year is 'digestible' politically.
Tampines GRC MP Baey Yam Keng told The Straits Times 'it will be a tough call' for Singapore to return to the 2009 situation and take in 60,000 immigrants a year. Singaporeans, however, would be willing to accept 'maybe 30,000 to 35,000' - if the infrastructure gets up to speed.
What Singapore will look like in 2015
Straits Times 8 Sep 11;
Scenario 1
THE resident population will continue to increase till 2020 as the number of babies born exceeds the number of people dying.
After that, the population will start to shrink, reaching 3.03 million in 2050 - down from the current 3.77 million.
There will be far fewer young people aged below 15. Their numbers will shrink to less than half the present 274,400. They will form just 9.1 per cent of the population. The working-age population will decline to 1.73 million, making up just over half - 57.3 per cent - of the population.
But there will be a lot more of the elderly, aged 65 and older. Their numbers will more than triple to 1.02 million. They will form one-third - 33.6 per cent - of the population.
There will be 1.7 working-age adults for every one elderly person, down from 8.6 to one in 2005. The median age will be 54.6, up from 36 in 2005.
Scenario 2
THE assumptions here reflect most closely Singapore's current situation.
The resident population will grow to 4.89 million by 2050.
The pool of young people aged below 15 will shrink slightly, reaching 651,300 in 2050. They will form 13.3 per cent of the population.
The number of working-age adults will rise gradually, to 3.1 million in 2050. They will comprise 63.3 per cent of the population.
Meanwhile, the elderly aged 65 and older will soar to 1.14 million. But they will form a smaller proportion of the population, at 23.4 per cent.
The ratio of working-age adults supporting each elderly person will be 2.7:1.
The median age will be 45.7.
Scenario 3
THE assumptions mirror the situation in Singapore in 2009, when the TFR was 1.22 and 59,460 foreigners were given permanent resident (PR) status.
The resident population of citizens and PRs will almost double to 6.76 million by 2050.
This is also the only scenario in which the number of young people aged below 15 will increase. Their number will rise to 1.04 million by 2050, or 15.3 per cent of the population.
The number of working-age adults will double to 4.45 million, representing 65.9 per cent of the population.
As for the elderly aged 65 and older, the rise is the highest in absolute terms, when compared to the other scenarios, reaching 1.27 million.
But in percentage terms, they will form the smallest pool - just 18.8 per cent of the population.
This means the ratio of working-age adults supporting one elderly person will the highest among the four scenarios, at 3.5:1. The median age will be 41.6.
Scenario 4
THE assumption of a TFR of 1.85 is optimistic. The last time Singapore achieved a similar TFR was in 1990, when it was 1.83.
Even so, the resident population will peak at 3.73 million in 2030, before it declines to 3.37 million in 2050.
The young aged 15 and below will decline to 447,100, albeit a less dramatic drop compared with Scenario 1. They will comprise 13.3 per cent of the population.
The number of working-age adults will decline to 1.91 million, representing just 56.6 per cent of the population - the smallest proportion among the four scenarios.
The number of elderly people aged 65 and older will increase to 1.02 million, the same number as in Scenario 1. They will comprise 30.2 per cent of the population.
There will be 1.9 working-age adults for every one elderly person.
The median age will be 50.9.
Migration, TFR and the Singapore population problem
Kelly Tay Business Times 8 Sep 11;
(SINGAPORE) Even with a net inflow of 60,000 migrants each year, Singapore still needs to raise its total fertility rate (TFR) if it is to ameliorate the problems of an ageing population, and ease the dependency burden on working adults.
The findings come from the latest projections of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) on the future population growth and change in Singapore, where two key questions were examined: What will the future population look like if the TFR remains below 1.3 over the long term, and what will be the likely effects of raising the TFR versus increasing immigration on the future population of Singapore.
The study's findings make clear that if Singapore's long-term resident TFR remains lower than 1.3, and if there is no in-migration, the resident population - comprising citizens and permanent residents - can be expected to decline and be extremely aged.
In all four projections that IPS discussed yesterday, the median age of Singapore residents will rise, albeit in varying degrees. Scenarios 1 and 4 will see the greatest jump from the 2010's median age of 37.4 years, to 54.6 years and 50.9 years respectively. This is due to the fact that in both projections, more than 30 per cent of the population would be over the age of 65.
These translate into a potential support ratio of 1.7 working adults for every elderly person in scenario 1, and 1.9 in scenario 4 - a far cry from last year's support ratio of 8.2.
Since the difference between scenarios 1 and 4 is the latter's heightened TFR, the results suggest that raising the TFR alone will only marginally alleviate the situation of an ageing and declining population.
While potential support ratios decline in scenarios 2 and 3 as well, they do so in lesser degrees with respective 2050 ratios resting at 2.7 and 3.5. This is because a smaller portion of residents would be over 65 years old as compared to those of working age.
In contrast to scenarios 1 and 4 which maintain zero migration, scenarios 2 and 3 assume a flat TFR alongside positive net migration figures. The difference in findings between each pair of projections suggests that in-migration helps to raise the support ratio and in doing so, reduces the dependency burden on persons of working age.
The IPS study also shows that without immigration of some magnitude, Singapore's resident population will decline by 2050 - even with an increase in the TFR. This is the case in scenario 4, where the resident population peaks in 2030 before declining to 3.37 million in 2050.
This is in contrast with scenarios 2 and 3, which register positive net migration figures, while keeping the TFR constant at 1.24. The resident population is raised to 4.89 million and 6.76 million respectively.
On the other hand, in scenario 1, where the TFR also stays constant but with zero net migration, findings bear similarity to scenario 4. The resident population hits a high in 2020 before declining to 3.03 million in 2050.
Said IPS director, Janadas Devan: 'This projection underlines the fact that there is no way you can keep your population from declining without immigration.'
'In any (of the four scenarios), you're going to see the support ratio and percentage of your working age population decline. The decline will be less only if you have a higher number of immigrants,' he added.
IPS's projections on population growth are especially timely given how highly the issue ranks on the national agenda. Earlier this week, former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew had touched on the importance of raising Singapore's TFR in light of the country's fast-ageing population.
Economists BT spoke to stressed the trade-offs involved in curbing Singapore's population growth. Said CIMB Research's Song Seng Wun: 'More business opportunities are created with more people, and so people must decide what they want.'
In agreement was OCBC economist, Selena Ling: 'Singapore can either stay open to foreign talent, or it can risk becoming like Japan, with a decline in economic competitiveness.'
Still, she noted that the long-term nature of the project also means that the 'margin of error can be very large'.
'The biggest change right now may come from heightened productivity levels. This will have implications on the assumptions and therefore findings of the study - with retirement ages likely to go up, perhaps the number of elderly people contributing to the economy will have to be revised,' added Ms Ling.
Low fertility rate, no immigration will lead to S'pore's population decline
Tan Qiuyi Channel News Asia 7 Sep 11;
SINGAPORE: Singapore's resident population will decline and become extremely aged if the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is extremely low and if there is no immigration.
This is according to a landmark study on future population growth and change for Singapore published on Wednesday by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).
The study produced four population scenarios based on varying TFR and immigration levels.
The study said with TFR at 1.24 births per woman and zero net migration, Singapore's population will decline to 3.03 million in 2050.
With 30,000 migrants added annually, the population projection is 4.89 million in 2050.
And with 60,000 migrants added annually, the population projection is 6.76 million in 2050.
The study also looked at a situation where TFR can be raised to 1.85 births per woman by 2025 with no new immigration. With such a scenario, the study said population size can still only hit 3.37 million in 2050.
The ratio of working people (between the ages of 15-64) to the elderly will also decrease. For instance, with low fertility and 30,000 new residents a year, the ratio drops from 8.6 in 2005, to 2.7 in 2050.
A key conclusion obtained from the study is that without immigration, the total population will decline, even if Singapore's total fertility rate rises from the current 1.15 to 1.85. The number of working people available to support each elderly person is also set to drop in all the scenarios.
However, Dr Yap Mui Teng, who is a senior research fellow at Institute of Policy Studies, said immigration can reduce the dependency burden.
Dr Yap said: "Under the scenario with higher net migration, there will be more people of working ages to support each elderly, compared to the scenario with low migration or scenarios with zero net migration."
Amid growing concerns from the ground about overcrowding and stiffer competition from foreign labour, some asked if population growth is absolutely necessary and how much is enough.
Associate Professor Paulin-Tay Straughan from the National University of Singapore said it is important for the government to determine how much population growth is needed to ensure a balance between a vibrant economy and the social health of society.
She said: "That's why these projections are so important. For us to understand how the projections are made, so that as a community together, we agree that these are the opportunity costs we're willing to accept because we all want to strive for this quality of life."
The government had earlier said it does not target a specific population size.
The study also projected that there will be fewer young people in Singapore if fertility rate remains low. The number of young people under 14 years of age will go down by more than half from 699,000 in 2005 to 274,400 by 2050.
- CNA/fa/ac
Without migration of some magnitude, Singapore's population will decline, says IPS
Tanya Fong Today Online 8 Sep 11;
SINGAPORE - Without migration of some magnitude, Singapore's ageing population will decline - even if it manages to boost its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 1.85 from the current 1.15.
This is according to a demographic study on future population growth and change in Singapore released yesterday by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).
The project - which the IPS embarked in 2007 and presented to the Government in April, this year - studied 48 scenarios which examined how the future population of Singapore will look like if the TFR remains "extremely low over the long term" and the "likely effects of raising the TFR versus increasing immigration".
Former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew had said during a forum with students on Monday the IPS had a "grim statistic of 60,000 migrants a year to keep our people young and economically active" which was "politically indigestible".
Yesterday, the IPS presented four of the 48 scenarios at a roundtable session and concluded that "without migration of some magnitude, Singapore's population will decline - even if it manages to boost its TFR to 1.85, up from the current 1.15", said IPS director Janadas Devan, who is also an associate editor at The Straits Times.
The first scenario was that if TFR remains at 1.24 births per woman and there is zero net migration - the result of in-migrants and out-migrants - Singapore's total resident population would decline to 3.03 million in 2050.
If TFR remains at 1.24 and 30,000 net migrants were added annually through to 2050, Singapore's total resident population would increase to 4.89 million in 2050.
And with 60,000 net migrants added annually, Singapore's total resident population would increase to 6.76 million in 2050. If TFR gradually rises from 1.24 to 1.85 by 2025 and stabilises, and there is zero migration, the total resident population will be 3.37 million. Total resident population is the total number of citizens and permanent residents.
The implications of the figures in these scenarios was discussed at the roundtable yesterday. One was the weight of an ageing population (65 and above) on those of working ages (between 15 and 65 years old).
For example, it is projected that by 2050, 1.9 working adult will support one elderly person, compared to the 8.6 in 2005.
Concluding that raising TFR to 1.85 with zero migration has little effect, the IPS said that "in-migration would ameliorate this decline".
The IPS added: "If the resident TFR for Singapore remains extremely low over the long term and there is no in-migration, the resident population can be expected to decline and it will be extremely aged. The results of this exercise suggest that raising TFR alone will ameliorate the situation marginally. Immigration helps to reduce the dependency burden and raise the support ratio."
When asked how the IPS arrived at net migration figures in the scenarios, IPS senior research fellow Dr Yap Mui Teng said they were not privy to migration figures from the National Population and Talent Division and that the numbers were decided "by estimation" of past population numbers at different time periods as well as birth and death figures.
When asked why these four scenarios were selected out of the 48, Dr Yap said: "These in a way reflect the conditions at that time (of study)."
Mr Devan added that the TFR and net migration figures adopted for the project were "realistic and reasonable".