Channel NewsAsia 1 Feb 13;
SINGAPORE: National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan has stressed that the projected 6.9 million population by 2030 is the "worst case scenario".
In his latest blog post, Mr Khaw said the government hopes that the country does not reach that figure and added that it may never reach it.
Mr Khaw said as planners, the government has to ensure that the infrastructure can accommodate such a figure if need be but it hopes that the actual figure would turn out to be much lower.
Mr Khaw said infrastructure must be built ahead of demand and some planning assumption is needed in order to achieve it.
He explained that in any long term plan, a key assumption is the projected population size.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said he fully agrees with Mr Khaw's explanation that a 6.9 million population is not a target, but just a worst case, aggressive scenario the government must prepare for.
In his Facebook post, Mr Lee said the government needs to plan consciously and responsibly for the future so that Singaporeans can continue to enjoy a good quality of life, and that Singapore continues to thrive.
Mr Khaw said the White Paper on Population released this week offers the basis for one such projection but he stressed the projection is not a forecast or a target.
It simply states the assumptions going forward, based on certain set of productivity and workforce growth rates.
Mr Khaw explained that for planning purpose, it is safer to take the more aggressive projection and plan infrastructure needs based on it.
And by doing so, Mr Khaw said the government will not be caught under-providing as what Singapore is facing now.
The government plans long term, anticipates future challenges and tries to address them early.
Mr Khaw said the White Paper on Population and the Land Use Plan were released this week as the government knows the country's demographic challenges are severe.
He said the government cannot simply pretend the challenges do not exist and then pass the problem to the future generation to deal with.
Mr Khaw said it would be irresponsible and that is not the government's style.
The minister said the responsible thing to do is to prepare for the worst but to hope for the best.
- CNA/fa
6.9m 'a worst-case scenario, not a target'
'Aggressive' projection is for planning ahead, say PM Lee and Khaw
Goh Chin Lian Straits Times 2 Feb 13;
PRIME Minister Lee Hsien Loong has made clear that the projection of a 6.9 million population by 2030 "is not a target, but just a worst-case, aggressive scenario that we must prepare for".
He said he fully agreed with Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan's explanation of the figure, which has been the focus of debate since the release of the Government's White Paper on Population on Tuesday.
In a Facebook post yesterday, Mr Lee wrote: "Fully agree with Khaw Boon Wan's explanation that a 6.9m population is not a target, but just a worst-case, aggressive scenario that we must prepare for.
"We need to plan consciously and responsibly for the future, so Singaporeans continue to enjoy a good quality of life, and Singapore continues to thrive."
On Thursday, Mr Khaw told journalists that 6.9 million was an aggressive projection, to enable planners to prepare for the worst and avoid the under-provision of infrastructure and land space.
Yesterday, he blogged about it, saying that the White Paper and the Land Use Plan were about ensuring a better quality of life for Singaporeans. "That is why we plan long term, anticipate future challenges and try to address them early. That is why we put out these two reports, because we know our demographic challenges are severe. If they are not dealt with properly, our children will suffer," Mr Khaw wrote.
He explained that to plan long term, one needs to make assumptions, such as projecting population. The White Paper, he said, offers the basis for such projection.
It explains that Singapore can have a population of 6.5 million to 6.9 million in 2030, assuming it wants to grow at a sustainable pace economically, maintain a strong Singaporean core and remain vibrant and liveable.
Mr Khaw said yesterday of the figure: "It is not a forecast or a target. It simply states the assumptions going forward, based on (a) certain set of productivity and workforce growth rates. For planning purpose(s), it is safer to take the more aggressive projection and plan infrastructure needs based on it. This way we will not be caught under-providing, as we are experiencing currently."
He said the 6.9 million figure should be read in this light.
"It is the worst-case scenario. We hope we do not reach that figure; we may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be.
"Our hope is that the actual figure would turn out to be much lower. This is following the time-tested survival mantra: prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. It is the only responsible thing to do."
