Straits Times Forum 6 Jun 13;
WE REFER to Mr Colin Loh's comments on the Population White Paper ("Hard to engage public if details are lacking"; Forum Online, last Thursday).
The basis for the population projections was provided in the White Paper and several occasional papers published over the past year.
The Paper considered the need to sustain our citizen population, given that our birth rates have been well below replacement level.
While we do our best to encourage marriage and parenthood, we are not likely to reach the replacement rate in the medium term, judging from our own experience and that of other developed countries, especially those in East Asia.
The Paper projected that there will be 900,000 Singaporeans over the age of 65 by 2030, three times the number today. This would mean just 2.1 Singaporeans of working age for each Singaporean above the age of 65 in 2030, compared with 5.9 today.
The Paper considered how to cater to the social and health-care manpower needs of our citizens, while creating enough good jobs and opportunities for Singaporeans in the future.
Bearing in mind our social and infrastructure constraints, the Paper projected that workforce growth would have to slow significantly, compared with the average of 3.3 per cent a year over the past 30 years. The Paper thus projected growth of 1 to 2 per cent a year up to 2020, and about 1 per cent a year from 2020 to 2030.
Together with productivity growth of 1 per cent to 2 per cent a year in the long term, which is comparable to the rate in developed countries, our economic growth is projected to slow, from the 6 per cent to 8 per cent a year experienced in the last three decades, to between 2 per cent and 3 per cent a year beyond 2020.
An ageing or shrinking population risks being unable to provide for our seniors, and an economy unable to create enough good jobs.
However, we understand the concerns of Singaporeans over the pace of change in society, the number of foreigners, and the need to provide adequate physical infrastructure to meet immediate as well as longer-term needs.
We will continue the population conversation to collectively arrive at the appropriate balance. Closer to 2020, we will review the population projections and our policies again, taking into account our changing circumstances and needs.
Should Mr Loh require further details, we invite him to contact us at nptd_contact@nptd.gov.sg
Soffy Hariyanti (Ms)
Director (Corporate Communications)
National Population and Talent Division
Prime Minister's Office
Hard to engage public if details are lacking
Straits Times Forum 30 May 13;
WHILE I applaud the civil service officers for the research work done in preparing the Population White Paper, it was short on details, making it difficult to "engage the public in deep discussions about the trade-offs" ("Population White Paper 'never meant to predict future'"; last Saturday).
It is not wrong to put up a population figure of 6.9 million for consideration, but Singaporeans need to know the methodology used and the premises and assumptions made to arrive at this figure.
It is futile to release a White Paper and expect Singaporeans to debate the issue if the actual details are not known.
Statistical projection, where human behaviour is involved, is never an exact science. I doubt the civil service would be faulted in the event of the projections not being realised, if the details were clearly shared and feedback taken.
I agree with civil service head Peter Ong that the White Paper should not be a deterministic exercise.
If Singaporeans do not agree with the 6.9 million figure, the public service may be required to look into other solutions, and share with them the consequences of not having this population size. The issue needs to be properly debated and scrutinised. Singaporeans and the Government will need to move as one to ensure a bright future for the country.
Colin Loh
